Living in a EU country, I really want the EU to be a bit more careful about who they accept. We have enough rogue states in the EU as it is, and who’s to say what the political landscape will look like in Ukraine in 10 years.
Supported Ukraine since day one, so this is not coming from someone that want less support for Ukraine.
It’s simple. Ukraine has to turn itself into a first class member then
EU can’t afford another Hungary or Poland demolishing the decision making from the inside
There’s no need for second class for Ukraine well certainly not for long anyway but it can be a quick way to join EU literally as Soon as war ends.
I beleive this system is primarily to control freedom of movement and prevent an exodus of people from poorer countries flooding the EU. Ie Turkey with its 120 million people and hyper inflation would see such a thing occur.
But in Ukraines case that has already happened.
I envisage that Ukranians will keep permission even post war to stay in EU until ukraine becomes a member.
Why ? By then those citizens will have integrated into the EU economy and there will be less movement of people once Ukraine becomes a member.
Ukraine second tier will never be on the table as it simply isn’t necessary beyond post war recovery.
In fact the amount of job creation in post war recovery may see the opposite ie a boom of peoole coming to Ukraine to live and work so a fully fledged member is an economic opportunity the EU should not miss.
Prior to becoming a member as it may take some years Ukraine should open itself up to EU member states with ease of visas to fill job roles.
Ie integrate before freedom of movement activated an ideal scenario for EU and Ukraine.
So no second class status for Ukraine for long but a tactic to join straight away… itll see UK join as tier 2 also
From EU perspective 2 tier system should be freedom of movement for full members and ease of movement for second tier ie easier visas for desired skill groups between the EU and those countries. This way a 2 tier system could gradually lead to some becoming full members in the future via slow integration which would prevent a flood of migrants and enable empowerment and social change in countries that don’t meet tier 1 standards.
This way Ukraine joins Tier 2 purely during recovery build and a few years later once meet full requirements specified recently they then hitch up to tier 1 freedom of movement. Ie they join as a full EU member a few years later.
So this is an opportunity for tier 2 project to commence and Ukraine being first candidate.
Sets a standard for other countries too and potential to become tier 1 with freedom of movement instead of ease of movement.
Ukraine will absolutly be tier 1 but has a strict code to adhere to that may take years to fulfill so tier 2 a tool to guarentee tier 1 for Ukraine. A special case due to already movement of population within EU borders ensures Tier 1 will absolutly happen and won’t linger in tier 2 for long.
I also feel that tier 2 from EU perspective should see a conscious coupling effort ie economically raise a country before tier 1 freedom of movement to prevent brain drain and mass exodus mass movement.
Tier 2 should see intentional economic entanglement to bring the wealth of a tier 2 country up to similar levels as other EU members so they one day can fulfil tier 1 and freedom of movement without mass exodus.ie poor moving to wealthier countries on a large scale can be prevented with intentional economic entanglement.
Without this policy a tier 2 country will never become a tier 1 country even if they meet tier 1 standards so this policy needs to be written in stone in a tier 2 system.
In a tier 2 system tier 2 must join customs Union therefore but that then has to be separated from freedom of movement in order to economically benefit a country.
Freedom of movement and customs union needs to be separated.
Without this separation no country in tier 2 will ever reach tier 1
To prevent EU tier 1 downgrade to tier 2 a country must have a ban for 5 years from customs union etc for example then reapply for tier 2 it’ll avoid EU breaking down on political whims and fragmentation but only promote growth instead.
The Europe of two speeds has zero to do with Ukraine, so I don’t even see the point here. This thing is decades old. It does heavily revolve around a very tight integration of France and Germany, which have been the centerpoint of the EU vs the UK when it was still part, as well as the immediate neighbours, especially BeNeLux.
The topic has risen to more prominence quite some years ago, after the Euro crisis to be precise. Then, the discussion revolved primarily about the net payers in the EU, Germany being the largest, versus the countries that are net receivers and the different economic speeds. Especially Greece, due to the crisis back then. Part of it was also the realization that Greece joining was perhaps not the best idea, given that the economic problems of the country were well-known. But there was enough political will, the voices debating the economic realities were ignored, only for them to come bite the EU in the ass.
It picked up again in recent years when especially certain Eastern European countries started to go down certain political paths, and especially the Visegrad group actively blocking necessary reforms of the EU. So, two Europes of different political speeds.
There is now widespread realization that the EU overextended, primarily due to the noble idea of wanting to unite Europe under a peaceful umbrella. And that there is near complete absence of instruments dealing with member states that violate its foundations, with at the same time no way of introducing such instruments due to the same states blockades.
That said, I don’t think Ukraine has any chance of joining the EU whatsoever in any foreseeable future based on similar political grounds as previous expansions. Of course, it would be great, but all the political reforms as well as the economic requirements take time. The aforementioned realization is too prevalent, and Western Europe is too reluctant go get in another country that would ally with Poland et al. Ukrainians would do well of being aware of that, and of the time and efforts that are required.
And in the end, there might be a Europa of two speeds because like I said that debate has nothing to do with Ukraine in particular. If there was such a thing, then of course and country willing to join or even already part of the block has the freedom to decide that they are rather not part of the EU if they can’t be part of the cool tier 1 gang. Or, the whole debate will be moot because I think a France governed by the FN will end the debate for the foreseeable future.
4 comments
Living in a EU country, I really want the EU to be a bit more careful about who they accept. We have enough rogue states in the EU as it is, and who’s to say what the political landscape will look like in Ukraine in 10 years.
Supported Ukraine since day one, so this is not coming from someone that want less support for Ukraine.
It’s simple. Ukraine has to turn itself into a first class member then
EU can’t afford another Hungary or Poland demolishing the decision making from the inside
There’s no need for second class for Ukraine well certainly not for long anyway but it can be a quick way to join EU literally as Soon as war ends.
I beleive this system is primarily to control freedom of movement and prevent an exodus of people from poorer countries flooding the EU. Ie Turkey with its 120 million people and hyper inflation would see such a thing occur.
But in Ukraines case that has already happened.
I envisage that Ukranians will keep permission even post war to stay in EU until ukraine becomes a member.
Why ? By then those citizens will have integrated into the EU economy and there will be less movement of people once Ukraine becomes a member.
Ukraine second tier will never be on the table as it simply isn’t necessary beyond post war recovery.
In fact the amount of job creation in post war recovery may see the opposite ie a boom of peoole coming to Ukraine to live and work so a fully fledged member is an economic opportunity the EU should not miss.
Prior to becoming a member as it may take some years Ukraine should open itself up to EU member states with ease of visas to fill job roles.
Ie integrate before freedom of movement activated an ideal scenario for EU and Ukraine.
So no second class status for Ukraine for long but a tactic to join straight away… itll see UK join as tier 2 also
From EU perspective 2 tier system should be freedom of movement for full members and ease of movement for second tier ie easier visas for desired skill groups between the EU and those countries. This way a 2 tier system could gradually lead to some becoming full members in the future via slow integration which would prevent a flood of migrants and enable empowerment and social change in countries that don’t meet tier 1 standards.
This way Ukraine joins Tier 2 purely during recovery build and a few years later once meet full requirements specified recently they then hitch up to tier 1 freedom of movement. Ie they join as a full EU member a few years later.
So this is an opportunity for tier 2 project to commence and Ukraine being first candidate.
Sets a standard for other countries too and potential to become tier 1 with freedom of movement instead of ease of movement.
Ukraine will absolutly be tier 1 but has a strict code to adhere to that may take years to fulfill so tier 2 a tool to guarentee tier 1 for Ukraine. A special case due to already movement of population within EU borders ensures Tier 1 will absolutly happen and won’t linger in tier 2 for long.
I also feel that tier 2 from EU perspective should see a conscious coupling effort ie economically raise a country before tier 1 freedom of movement to prevent brain drain and mass exodus mass movement.
Tier 2 should see intentional economic entanglement to bring the wealth of a tier 2 country up to similar levels as other EU members so they one day can fulfil tier 1 and freedom of movement without mass exodus.ie poor moving to wealthier countries on a large scale can be prevented with intentional economic entanglement.
Without this policy a tier 2 country will never become a tier 1 country even if they meet tier 1 standards so this policy needs to be written in stone in a tier 2 system.
In a tier 2 system tier 2 must join customs Union therefore but that then has to be separated from freedom of movement in order to economically benefit a country.
Freedom of movement and customs union needs to be separated.
Without this separation no country in tier 2 will ever reach tier 1
To prevent EU tier 1 downgrade to tier 2 a country must have a ban for 5 years from customs union etc for example then reapply for tier 2 it’ll avoid EU breaking down on political whims and fragmentation but only promote growth instead.
The Europe of two speeds has zero to do with Ukraine, so I don’t even see the point here. This thing is decades old. It does heavily revolve around a very tight integration of France and Germany, which have been the centerpoint of the EU vs the UK when it was still part, as well as the immediate neighbours, especially BeNeLux.
The topic has risen to more prominence quite some years ago, after the Euro crisis to be precise. Then, the discussion revolved primarily about the net payers in the EU, Germany being the largest, versus the countries that are net receivers and the different economic speeds. Especially Greece, due to the crisis back then. Part of it was also the realization that Greece joining was perhaps not the best idea, given that the economic problems of the country were well-known. But there was enough political will, the voices debating the economic realities were ignored, only for them to come bite the EU in the ass.
It picked up again in recent years when especially certain Eastern European countries started to go down certain political paths, and especially the Visegrad group actively blocking necessary reforms of the EU. So, two Europes of different political speeds.
There is now widespread realization that the EU overextended, primarily due to the noble idea of wanting to unite Europe under a peaceful umbrella. And that there is near complete absence of instruments dealing with member states that violate its foundations, with at the same time no way of introducing such instruments due to the same states blockades.
That said, I don’t think Ukraine has any chance of joining the EU whatsoever in any foreseeable future based on similar political grounds as previous expansions. Of course, it would be great, but all the political reforms as well as the economic requirements take time. The aforementioned realization is too prevalent, and Western Europe is too reluctant go get in another country that would ally with Poland et al. Ukrainians would do well of being aware of that, and of the time and efforts that are required.
And in the end, there might be a Europa of two speeds because like I said that debate has nothing to do with Ukraine in particular. If there was such a thing, then of course and country willing to join or even already part of the block has the freedom to decide that they are rather not part of the EU if they can’t be part of the cool tier 1 gang. Or, the whole debate will be moot because I think a France governed by the FN will end the debate for the foreseeable future.