Maybe I’m way overestimating my forecasting abilities, but it’s mind boggling to me that ruZZia isn’t in full blown panic mode. The majority of artillery pieces that the Ukrainians destroy are “irreplaceable” seeing that they were pulled from old Soviet stocks. ruZZia (or most countries for that matter) don’t have the manufacturing capabilities to produce enough new artillery pieces to keep up with what’s being lost on the front lines. Ditto with tanks and BMPs. I’ve seen several videos where people have closely examined military bases and counted pieces of equipment. They all arrive at the same conclusion – sometime in mid-2024 is when ruZZia is going to run out of Soviet attic stock. Once this happens, their military is going to be without its main pillar and I gotta think that’s when things can get REALLY ugly.
We’ve been waiting for the collapse of Russia’s military for over a year. We’ve said this again and again. “They’re on the brink!”
But I wonder if we’re thinking about it like westerners. They have a well of troops to pull from. Near bottomless, when you needn’t worry about resistance at home. The poor, the prisoners. Saves a lot of time and money. They have their own allies too who are feeding them weapons and ammunition- China, North Korea, Iran. India may even have participated more than they let on.
We think they’re near collapse because a western society, with highly visible political decisions and power based on the support of the people, would have tumbled. But they can go as lean as they need to. They have generations of hatefulness trained into them. They are taught blind loyalty. As long as there is breath still in the Russian people, Putin is willing to send them and China is willing to pay for it in exchange for that sweet, sweet cheap gas.
“You have to use what NATO calls ‘multidomain’—air, land, sea, cyber, information, special forces—all of the different domains.”
Ukraine is fighting an MMA fight with a boxer.
Interesting to note that wile Russia is losing its main pillar, Ukraine will be gaining the NATO pillar of modern jets and all the technical capability they unlock.
The sad truth is this is going to go on for a very long time.
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Maybe I’m way overestimating my forecasting abilities, but it’s mind boggling to me that ruZZia isn’t in full blown panic mode. The majority of artillery pieces that the Ukrainians destroy are “irreplaceable” seeing that they were pulled from old Soviet stocks. ruZZia (or most countries for that matter) don’t have the manufacturing capabilities to produce enough new artillery pieces to keep up with what’s being lost on the front lines. Ditto with tanks and BMPs. I’ve seen several videos where people have closely examined military bases and counted pieces of equipment. They all arrive at the same conclusion – sometime in mid-2024 is when ruZZia is going to run out of Soviet attic stock. Once this happens, their military is going to be without its main pillar and I gotta think that’s when things can get REALLY ugly.
We’ve been waiting for the collapse of Russia’s military for over a year. We’ve said this again and again. “They’re on the brink!”
But I wonder if we’re thinking about it like westerners. They have a well of troops to pull from. Near bottomless, when you needn’t worry about resistance at home. The poor, the prisoners. Saves a lot of time and money. They have their own allies too who are feeding them weapons and ammunition- China, North Korea, Iran. India may even have participated more than they let on.
We think they’re near collapse because a western society, with highly visible political decisions and power based on the support of the people, would have tumbled. But they can go as lean as they need to. They have generations of hatefulness trained into them. They are taught blind loyalty. As long as there is breath still in the Russian people, Putin is willing to send them and China is willing to pay for it in exchange for that sweet, sweet cheap gas.
“You have to use what NATO calls ‘multidomain’—air, land, sea, cyber, information, special forces—all of the different domains.”
Ukraine is fighting an MMA fight with a boxer.
Interesting to note that wile Russia is losing its main pillar, Ukraine will be gaining the NATO pillar of modern jets and all the technical capability they unlock.
The sad truth is this is going to go on for a very long time.