[https://twitter.com/Tatarigami\_UA/status/1710382234803290154](https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1710382234803290154)
Recently, I’ve tried to refrain from making negative statements about the overall situation. However, over the past two months, I’ve come across a continuous stream of statements that I find not only incorrect but also potentially harmful.
One of the most recent trends I’ve observed is the assertion that the russians lack reserves and are running out of troops. This information is not only inaccurate but also lacks substantiated data on the location and availability of russian reserves.
In the past, I made a similar comment when regiments from the 76th division started moving southward.
Unfortunately, I continue to witness the deployment of additional units and reserves across various parts of the frontline. While I harbor doubts about their potential for an offensive, they appear to be deployed in the areas where Ukrainian forces might breach defenses. Their purpose seems to be slowing down Ukrainian troops and severely limiting their ability to exploit any breakthroughs.
Ultimately, russian forces may not need to advance at this moment but aim to minimize Ukrainian gains from this counter-offensive. They aim to undermine both political and military support for Ukraine.
The enemy remains formidable and capable, despite all their shortcomings. They still possess significant anti-tank capabilities, the ability to deploy remote minefields, employ loitering munitions, maintain artillery and counter-battery capabilities, and continue fortifying their defenses. When individuals push the narrative that the russians are on the verge of collapse and have exhausted their reserves, it fosters unrealistic expectations and diverts attention from the necessity for long-term planning and vision. It can lead to an overemphasis on short-term optimism and hinder the recognition of mistakes, the need for change, or an increase in support.
To an observer, it may seem that advances can continue endlessly. However, this situation underscores the fact that Ukraine does not possess an unlimited supply of ammunition, much of which was provided by South Korea through the US. Furthermore, Ukraine does not have an inexhaustible pool of personnel in the already deployed brigades along the front lines.
Maintaining a healthy optimism is absolutely necessary as our troops make further progress. It’s true that russian troops have suffered severe degradation, and counter-battery fire degraded their artillery capabilities. Their captured soldiers have testified about a lack of discipline and a diminishing will to fight. However, this optimism shouldn’t transform into delusional hopefulness.
Earlier this spring, I cautioned against setting unrealistic expectations and the belief that russian defenses would collapse within weeks or days, leading to celebrations in liberated Crimea. I emphasized that a counter-offensive alone would not win this war and that we needed to plan for the long term. I hope that now, my message will resonate more strongly.
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**History Legends** has no such reservations in his latest You Tube summary [Ukraine’s Summer Offensive Has FAILED](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OsYtZCLBO9k)
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by notyoungnotold99
12 comments
Good post. Finally something realistic from one side or the other on this sub.
Some pro ua is facing reality
All the propaganda eventually backfires. Especially in the age where we can see everything from the frontlines rather quickly with maps and details. Ukraines propaganda and censorship has and is backfiring. The NAFO kids really think they help but they are small minded in their thinking for their quick wins they dont see the bigger picture of the lies backfiring on them losing them support in the end.
Im not sure who they are playing the propaganda too anymore at this point.
Bah ha ha…
The Western Ukrainians, more appropriately, the Polish Lithuania Commonwealth and Galatia whack jobs that got attached to Russian okraina and then tried to hijack the Russian two thirds of okraina, never had a snowball’s chance of winning the war they instigated with Russia.
The only question to still be answered is, how many of the Polish Lithuania Commonwealth and Galatia whack jobs have to be processed through the battlefield before the ones that are left can take a hint and not fire artillery shells into cities in the Donbass like they had done for nearly a decade now?
Even the leaked Intel reports said the counteroffensive would suck.
People keep brushing it off, but the evidence is really mounting. The offensive is stalling, at the very least. Russia has, and will continue to reinforce their defenses over the Autumn and Winter.
Unfortunately the Ukrainian leadership has put itself in an impossible situation. Maximalist objectives and they’ve got the Ukrainian populace mostly onboard and the western benefactors as well.
They’ll have to backtrack, somehow. Just a bit like Russia had to after failing to seize Kyiv.
Party in Tokmak might still be possible but Crimea is lost.
For a year the most likely outcome has been a frozen conflict along massively fortified lines and all these offensives have done nothing to change my mind.
***´´It’s true that russian troops have suffered severe degradation, and counter-battery fire degraded their artillery capabilities.´´***
how is that true?
The offensive has clearly failed. They dont have the manpower reserves to breakthrough all the defensive lines nevermind their incapability of penetrating the first defensive line…..
It was absolutely predictable too since I said so back in february during the soledar fight… I even tried to reference articles for the proua to understand my POV to no avail. I understood from then on these people are parrots incapable of independent thought and an unwillingness to learn let alone have a discussion.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/114zzlu/comment/j8zpd42/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/114zzlu/comment/j8zpd42/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
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https://preview.redd.it/bopjv7t00osb1.png?width=621&format=png&auto=webp&s=3fc599ba82a00daa5fb40b13747f85cef1dc49d4
Yet he still clings to the “quantity has a quality of its own” trope, when there’s barely a parity in number of troops with ru still being outnumbered by ukr.
When this whole thing ends in predictable manner, this is going to be the excuse that western propaganda will cling to, that ukr were “outnumbered” by ru. Similar to post-ww2 nazi sympathizers propaganda of the past.
The propaganda was unrealistic because that is all they could sell the US population on. After Iraq and Afghanistan there was no way Americans wanted in on another long term conflict, especially with how things are falling apart domestically. People aren’t as naive, optimistic or affluent as they were back in 2001.
Tatarigami_UA is a great account to follow. He’s always been a tempered and sobering read even way before the counteroffensive, in contrast with the too numerous online cheerleaders and out of touch political figures.
However I’m not sure about History Legends, at a first glance he seems too much into clickbait titles and thumbnails to be taken seriously like many other Youtubers on either side.
I certainly wouldn’t put the two on the same level.