2023 Polish parliamentary election

Today (October 15th) **Poles go to polls** to cast their votes in / the probably least predictable in last ~30 years / parliamentary elections!

The parliament of Poland is bicameral and composed of two chambers:

* Lower house (the **Sejm**), which consists of 460 deputies (231 needed for majority), who are elected for a **four**-year term, directly in 41 multi-member constituencies, by [party list proportional representation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party-list_proportional_representation), with seats allocated on constituency level using [d’Hondt method](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%27Hondt_method). Electoral threshold (counted on national level) is 5% for party lists, 8% for coalitions, and exemption for national minorities.

Short summary of relevant parties and alliances taking part in the elections:

Name|Leaders|Position|Affiliation|2019 result|Recent polling|Threshold|**Exit poll**|Seats (2019)
:–|:–|:–|:–|–:|–:|–:|–:|:–
[Law & Justice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_and_Justice) (PiS)|[Jarosław Kaczyński](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaros%C5%82aw_Kaczy%C5%84ski)|right-wing (national conservative)|ECR|43.6%|32-37%|8%|TBA|(235)
[Civic Coalition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civic_Coalition_(Poland\)) (KO)|[Donald Tusk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Tusk)|wide centre (liberal)|EPP|27.4%|27-31%|8%|TBA|(134)
[Third Way](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Way_(Poland\)) (TD)|[Szymon Hołownia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Szymon_Hołownia), [Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W%C5%82adys%C5%82aw_Kosiniak-Kamysz)|centre-right (liberal conservative)|Renew, EPP|8.6%|8-12%|8%|TBA|(30)
[the Left](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Left_(Poland\)) (Lewica)|collective|wide left (social democracy, progressive)|PES|12.6.%|8-11%|5%|TBA|(49)
[Confederation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confederation_Liberty_and_Independence)|collective|far-right (nationalist libertarian, Christian fundamentalist, anti-Ukraine)|close to ID|6.8%|8-9%|5%|TBA|(11)
[Nonpartisan Local Government Activists](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonpartisan_Local_Government_Activists) (BS)|Robert Raczyński|localist|-|0.8%|2-3%|5%|TBA|(0)
[German Minority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Minority_Electoral_Committee) (MN)|[Ryszard Galla](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryszard_Galla)|regionalist|-|0.2%|<1%|0%|TBA|(1)

* Upper house (the Senate, **Senat**), which consists of 100 senators (51 needed for majority), also elected for a four-year term, directly in single-person constituencies ([first-past-the-post](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-past-the-post_voting)). However, role of the Senate is quite limited – and as it’s already controlled by the opposition during the ending term, this is expected to repeat, as the “democratic opposition” (see below) made an [agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senate_Pact_2023) to not compete with each other (one candidate fielded per constituency). It’s expected opposition will win Senate roughly 58-60 vs 38-40.

Polls open on 07:00, and close on 21:00 local time. Exit polls will be revealed after that hour, but full official results will be known probably only late Monday. Votes cast abroad will be counted towards Warsaw downtown constituencies. Turnout in last (2019) elections was 61.7%.

There’s also a concurrent [referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Polish_referendum) happening, widely seen as a way for PiS to outsource the campaign money above restricted limits, and thus encouraged to be boycotted by the opposition.

Overall – what will matter today, is the Sejm vote, other two are much less relevant.

**Further reading**

[How to watch the Polish election like a pro](https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-election-law-and-justice-civic-coalition-donald-tusk-jaroslaw-kaczynskih/) (Politico)

[Six key questions ahead of Poland’s election](https://www.politico.eu/article/6-key-questions-ahead-of-polands-election-duda-tusk-kaczynski-pis-poland-law-and-justice/)

**Possible outcomes**

Here are crucial facts to know, regarding possible post-election coalitions:

* KO, TD and Left (known as “democratic opposition” or “anti-PiS”) are widely expected to form government (if they get majority, of course). Any of those going into a coalition with PiS would be a huge surprise (and negatively seen by their voters). If necessary, such coalition would be supported by the single deputy of the German minority.

* Confederation is “anti-both”, and if needed for majority, the expected result is hung parliament and snap elections in few months. However, they could form an uneasy coalition with either PiS (more probable), or KO-TD.

* BS are considered “who will ~~bribe~~ give us more” opportunists, and might join any side. However, them getting into Sejm is not probable, and their start is viewed as a head-start before local elections next year (if they get 3% today, they will receive public subsidy).

* If PiS lacks only ~5-10 seats to majority, they will try to bribe some deputies from other parties, especially TD and Confederation.

* PiS being able to govern third term alone will be possible only if it gets above expected result, AND if TD falls under the the threshold.

by pothkan