Putin may be trying to lower expectations around a major assault as Russia looks unlikely to make significant progress, experts say

Putin may be trying to lower expectations that Russia can make significant progress in its fight for a strategic Ukrainian village, experts said.

Last week, Russia launched one of its biggest attacks in months on Avdiivka, a key village in Ukraine’s southeastern Donetsk region. But so far it appears to have made little progress, with reports instead pointing to major Russian losses.

Speaking on Russian state television on Sunday, Putin seemed to downplay Russian efforts there, describing actions in Avdiivka, as well as Kupyansk and Zaporizhia, as an “active defense,” Washington DC-based think-tank the Institute for the Study of War said.

This shows Russia “may be trying to temper expectations of significant Russian advances around Avdiivka,” it said. Putin’s description of events are notably different from other prominent Russian voices, with Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, calling them “active combat operations” on Friday and Russian mil-bloggers calling it an “offensive,” the ISW said.

Avdiivka has been the scene of some of the most intense fighting in Ukraine’s counteroffensive pushback, with Ukraine recapturing the village in September.

Strategically, Avdiivka offers a gateway to parts of Ukraine occupied by Russia.

But it also holds symbolic importance for both sides: for Ukraine, it is a symbol of recent victory, and for Russia, a Ukrainian military spokesman noted, “it is the only chance to show some kind of victory.”Analysts said Russia lost at least 15 tanks and 33 armored vehicles in about two days of its assault last week.

Ukrainian units fighting there said they were holding Russian forces back, and videos from the area show destroyed Russian armored vehicles.

Dmytro Lysyuk, commander of Ukraine’s 128th separate mountain assault brigade, said there is no chance Russia’s forces there would break through, The Guardian reported.

The ISW said on Sunday that Russia was carrying out intensive artillery and air strikes near Avdiivka, which are “likely intended to degrade Ukrainian forces.”But it said Russia’s efforts were unlikely to work, and that it would need a lot more soldiers and resources to actually be successful.

It added: “Russian forces are unlikely to make significant breakthroughs or cut off Ukrainian forces in the settlement in the near term, and potential advances at scale would likely require a significant and protracted commitment of personnel and material.”

by Khutko