Deaths down after 4+ weeks of Omicron “spreading exponentially”.
Opps
It’s crazy to see these numbers when so many people I know have been unable to get hold of tests and every chemist I walk past seems to have a sign in the window saying that they’ve got no LTF tests!
Nye house party cancelled as 3 in our friends group tested positive today. Its spreading like crazy
High numbers but I think there won’t be a national lockdown. I think it won’t happen as the evidence suggests despite the tsunami of infections that the new variant is sufficiently less dangerous so will not trigger an unmanageable surge in hospitalization significant fatalities. without those events politicians will do the easy thing
Note that these numbers do not include reinfections (although that’s meant to be changing some time in January).
So ~13 million people are excluded from these stats.
Case numbers are no use for anything other than headline writers. What’s important as ever is the hospitalisation and particularly ICU capacity.
There were 2000 hospital admissions in England today, around half the January peak. Hospital occupancy is up to 11,500, a third of the peak*. And ventilator beds are hardly moving at all. We’re now 15 days from that initial Omicron-fuelled jump to 80k, so we should be seeing the real impact of Omicron now.
*: and as per yesterday’s thread, about 3000 of those are incidental admissions for other stuff with Covid
These numbers are obviously going up but there is quite a bit of capacity left before we’re in a position as bad as in January. And the pattern from SA suggests it should blow through quite quickly.
Also, given how transmissible Omicron is, we really have no option at this point but to deal with it through health service capacity. Look at France, which has restrictions stronger than anything proposed here, and completely failing to control it. The level of lockdown you’d need to prevent transmission or even meaningfully spread it out would be so harsh it would be unacceptable. I’m not even sure it’s possible while keeping essential services running.
If it is this transmissible restrictions won’t do much anyway
And yet deaths are flat or indeed falling… let go guys, it’s done.
Remember when we used to talk about hospitalizations and deaths?
Nah, nor do I.
I’m just hoping that after having 2 vaccines, a dose of Delta variant, and now the booster, I should be pretty much sorted for not getting the bastarding thing again.
Numbers will likely be a lot higher. A large number of family and friends have all been testing positive over the Xmas period. Only about 1/5 are going for the PCR or recording the lateral flow.
Most are doing the lateral flows, isolating but not recording the results.
Probably more common than you think.
What a complete non-story. Imagine testing everyone in the country in any given December for cold or flu like virus? It’d be through the roof, every time. People need to snap out of it.
13 comments
Deaths down after 4+ weeks of Omicron “spreading exponentially”.
Opps
It’s crazy to see these numbers when so many people I know have been unable to get hold of tests and every chemist I walk past seems to have a sign in the window saying that they’ve got no LTF tests!
[…..](https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fthumbs.gfycat.com%2FSnoopyPettyElephant-size_restricted.gif&f=1&nofb=1)
Nye house party cancelled as 3 in our friends group tested positive today. Its spreading like crazy
High numbers but I think there won’t be a national lockdown. I think it won’t happen as the evidence suggests despite the tsunami of infections that the new variant is sufficiently less dangerous so will not trigger an unmanageable surge in hospitalization significant fatalities. without those events politicians will do the easy thing
Note that these numbers do not include reinfections (although that’s meant to be changing some time in January).
So ~13 million people are excluded from these stats.
Case numbers are no use for anything other than headline writers. What’s important as ever is the hospitalisation and particularly ICU capacity.
There were 2000 hospital admissions in England today, around half the January peak. Hospital occupancy is up to 11,500, a third of the peak*. And ventilator beds are hardly moving at all. We’re now 15 days from that initial Omicron-fuelled jump to 80k, so we should be seeing the real impact of Omicron now.
*: and as per yesterday’s thread, about 3000 of those are incidental admissions for other stuff with Covid
These numbers are obviously going up but there is quite a bit of capacity left before we’re in a position as bad as in January. And the pattern from SA suggests it should blow through quite quickly.
Also, given how transmissible Omicron is, we really have no option at this point but to deal with it through health service capacity. Look at France, which has restrictions stronger than anything proposed here, and completely failing to control it. The level of lockdown you’d need to prevent transmission or even meaningfully spread it out would be so harsh it would be unacceptable. I’m not even sure it’s possible while keeping essential services running.
If it is this transmissible restrictions won’t do much anyway
And yet deaths are flat or indeed falling… let go guys, it’s done.
Remember when we used to talk about hospitalizations and deaths?
Nah, nor do I.
I’m just hoping that after having 2 vaccines, a dose of Delta variant, and now the booster, I should be pretty much sorted for not getting the bastarding thing again.
Numbers will likely be a lot higher. A large number of family and friends have all been testing positive over the Xmas period. Only about 1/5 are going for the PCR or recording the lateral flow.
Most are doing the lateral flows, isolating but not recording the results.
Probably more common than you think.
What a complete non-story. Imagine testing everyone in the country in any given December for cold or flu like virus? It’d be through the roof, every time. People need to snap out of it.