Hopefully they also add how there’s more people testing than ever before which will logically affect the number of cases
>Experts have noted it could be several days yet before the impact of infections caught over Christmas becomes apparent in the data.
Lol we’re so fucked.
Deaths down. Number of people in ICU down. Hospital numbers are now being fudged to cover literally anyone who has covid but just happens to be in hospital for the most basic of treatments, symptomatic or not.
But hospitalizations and ICU usage are going to be the important metrics over the coming days.
My eyes went as wide as saucers when I saw the leap to 183k cases. Back in July 2020 that was a record-busting bad day for the entire planet!
Even if Omicron isn’t as deadly as Delta, this puts the NHS is a very precarious position going into January, especially if the case curve keeps leaping into mid-January.
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Our extended family has just had it – snapshot of symptoms.
40 year old unvaccinated in bed for a week and still struggling but over the worst.
Double jabbed AZ 40 year old due a booster, 24 hours in bed, described it as terrible, very quick recovery – 2 days.
No symptoms for any boosted people. 15 year old with single jab had a dicky belly and a little fatigue. 6 year old complains of tummy ache and goes off her food – may have taste issues.
Almost certain the 40 year old unvaccinated brought it to a small gathering 10 days ago.
Just to add before the “bUt DeATHs aRe LoWeR” brigade comes in:
– Testing has a 2 week lag. We are seeing past numbers, the “real-time” count is likely much higher
– Hospital number reporting lags behind testing numbers
– Death numbers lag behind hospital numbers
Also remember that “COVID deaths” are not the exclusive measure for whether hospital beds are at capacity or not. Anyone taking up a bed, whether it’s COVID-related or not, reduces the capacity of that hospital. Some hospitals only need an influx of people ill, but not dying, with COVID to become overwhelmed and cause indirect deaths due to lack of beds.
Finally, get boosted, test regularly (when possible) and limit exposure. You will be doing yourself, other people, and the NHS, a world of good.
This is a surprisingly large number. However, the flip side of the “we shouldn’t take too much notice of the apparent decline over Christmas” is that some of those cases indeed appear to have been delayed and so reported cases today and tomorrow are likely to be artificially large.
(We can clearly see that with the NI cases – today’s numbers are actually the last 5 days’ and so today’s figure is about 20,000 too high. Similar but less absolute considerations likely apply to labs in Britain.)
The cases by specimen date, rather than reporting date, also suggest that – figures for the days just before Christmas have been revised upward to 130-140k, suggesting tests were in the queue for processing.
As ever the important data is hospital occupancy, not cases. Admissions are at maybe 2000 per day, which looks bad (though still only half the levels in January) – but with the average stay length reduced the actual load on hospitals is much smaller. There are about 11,000 people in hospital with* Covid, about the same as the start of Nov 2020 and not even close to the loads in Dec/Jan last winter.
*: with, not of – with maybe 3% of the population having Covid, some of them would have been there anyway. EDIT: there are about 125,000 beds in the NHS, let’s say winter usage is about 100k, you’d expect about 3000 occupants brought in for other things to have Covid assuming an even distribution of Covid
Before we knew anything for sure about severity, it looked like we might be in trouble if daily reported positive cases reached 150k/day. Even with the caveats above, the “real” rate today is probably around that. But fortunately we now do know that the severity is significantly lower, so we shouldn’t be in trouble even with twice as many cases. And that’s without considering the ongoing third vaccination programme, which by now should be rolled out and effective for all the at risk groups.
AHH I remember the. “we are not South Africa” line. When people were saying it is mild.
Have we moved onto
There is a lag for deaths.?
We need one of those bingo boards for the people who want restrictions 😂
Meanwhile Piers Corbyn and his band of merry plague rats are harassing staff at a testing centre, vandalising the place, and stealing supplies.
I am quietly delighted with the past couple days figures, believe it or not.
London has clearly peaked, which is HUGE, if thats as bad as it gets we have real world data that without any measures we can ride this wave out and likely the end of the pandemic phase into endemic.
We are now 3 or so weeks into Omicron, if this is all it has to throw at us this could be our ticket off this ride. Hopefully I can get covid in the next few weeks so I have immunity too. Knowing everyone will catch it in the next few weeks or months takes a huge weight off my mind as I am no longer worried about “if” merely “when”.
I honestly could see us declaring the end around March if things hold their course.
Fair play to the government they appear to have made the correct bet.
Looks like the last step in Plague inc. Get everyone accustomed to the virus, maximise the infection rate, and boom, mutate so it kills everyone
This is a huge number for just one day! A million people in the last 7/10 days, and obviously cases are always under-reported.
This could be great news if hospitalizations and deaths keep relatively low, it could be the end of the pandemic! Basically everyone catches the virus so it’s gone. Fingers crossed!
Got my positive test today. I know more people who have got it in the past week than during 2020.
It doesn’t surprise me, it feels like it is absolutely everywhere at the moment.
I just hope, and I mean this in the most sincere way possible the early studies about the new varient potentially being milder are true, the last year was just horrible.
Its easy to hyper focus on hospitals (vital as they are) but you also have to consider, they have patients who although medically fit, they can’t discharge into the community due to lack of (social) care provision.. and unfortunately the longer these individuals remain in that setting the more likely given time they may either acquire covid (if they’ve not already had it recently) or another infection.
Our family/circle of friends didn’t do Christmas this year either (like last) mainly because of their jobs.. and it feels like I dodged a bullet because low and behold several of them went down with it within the last week (without going too much into it, selfish colleagues – care setting as well!)
Regardless of the mood of this sub, let’s be honest now this is just numbers on a screen to 90% of the UK population at this point.
Between almost 2 years of fear fatigue, months of semi-normality and the vaccine rollout (along with the “I’ve done my part” feeling that comes with it), your average person on the street is done.
And frankly, who can blame them?
Overall, it’s looking better than a week ago despite the shocking case numbers. Omicron is most advanced in London, cases have skyrocketed and hospital admissions have climbed, but there has only been a fairly small increase in the number of patients on ventilation so far. We can expect this to climb as hospitalisations and deaths lag behind cases, but Omicron is causing a lower proportion of severe cases. London has a relatively low vaccination rate so the most of the country should fare a bit better.
The biggest problem right at the moment is a large proportion of healthcare workers are off sick or self-isolating.
But we don’t know how high this wave can go, especially after all the Christmas mixing. Something north of 2,000 daily admissions look likely.
Pretty sure this number includes about 5 days of Northern Ireland cases. Still probably a big number regardless.
Ffs cases aren’t the measure we need. Tell me how many hospitalisations m, specifically from omicron, we have.
Why is nobody mentioning the fact that dispite omicron making up over 90% of cases (vs Delta) in the last 12 days, omicron hospitalizations make up around 8% of total hospitalizations.
Taken from the gov reporting. Is there something wrong with this data??
isn’t the point of vaccines that cases don’t matter that much because people won’t go to hospital ? I guess the goalposts have shifted again…
There’s a lot of fence sitters, who don’t want to seem overly optimistic. And there’s a lot of doomsters. But day on day, the data from the UK and elsewhere is showing us two things.
1) Vaccines, especially after the booster, offer very good protection from Omicron. So there is no fear of a huge wave of excess death. At worst, hospitals could get close to the Delta peak, but even without restrictions they look unlikely to breach that, due to vaccine protection/mildness of disease and length of stays (Remember restrictions were brought in to limit Delta hospitalisations to the level they peaked at).
2) No restrictions will stop the spread of Omicron in any substantial way. Even if we could muster the social willpower to re-enter 2020 lockdown (practically impossible) I don’t think it would do much other than spread the case load out over a couple of extra months. I think most people will be exposed to this before mid-spring. Anyone still talking about restrictive measures on freedoms, or in schools or to protect vunerable groups has their head firmly in the sand or is seeking to prolong some form of gain from the pandemic.
24 comments
Hopefully they also add how there’s more people testing than ever before which will logically affect the number of cases
>Experts have noted it could be several days yet before the impact of infections caught over Christmas becomes apparent in the data.
Lol we’re so fucked.
Deaths down. Number of people in ICU down. Hospital numbers are now being fudged to cover literally anyone who has covid but just happens to be in hospital for the most basic of treatments, symptomatic or not.
[BBC even saying this hospital numbers spike is bogus ](https://i.imgur.com/QpQz3FL.png)
That’s a lot.
But hospitalizations and ICU usage are going to be the important metrics over the coming days.
My eyes went as wide as saucers when I saw the leap to 183k cases. Back in July 2020 that was a record-busting bad day for the entire planet!
Even if Omicron isn’t as deadly as Delta, this puts the NHS is a very precarious position going into January, especially if the case curve keeps leaping into mid-January.
[deleted]
[deleted]
Our extended family has just had it – snapshot of symptoms.
40 year old unvaccinated in bed for a week and still struggling but over the worst.
Double jabbed AZ 40 year old due a booster, 24 hours in bed, described it as terrible, very quick recovery – 2 days.
No symptoms for any boosted people. 15 year old with single jab had a dicky belly and a little fatigue. 6 year old complains of tummy ache and goes off her food – may have taste issues.
Almost certain the 40 year old unvaccinated brought it to a small gathering 10 days ago.
Just to add before the “bUt DeATHs aRe LoWeR” brigade comes in:
– Testing has a 2 week lag. We are seeing past numbers, the “real-time” count is likely much higher
– Hospital number reporting lags behind testing numbers
– Death numbers lag behind hospital numbers
Also remember that “COVID deaths” are not the exclusive measure for whether hospital beds are at capacity or not. Anyone taking up a bed, whether it’s COVID-related or not, reduces the capacity of that hospital. Some hospitals only need an influx of people ill, but not dying, with COVID to become overwhelmed and cause indirect deaths due to lack of beds.
Finally, get boosted, test regularly (when possible) and limit exposure. You will be doing yourself, other people, and the NHS, a world of good.
This is a surprisingly large number. However, the flip side of the “we shouldn’t take too much notice of the apparent decline over Christmas” is that some of those cases indeed appear to have been delayed and so reported cases today and tomorrow are likely to be artificially large.
(We can clearly see that with the NI cases – today’s numbers are actually the last 5 days’ and so today’s figure is about 20,000 too high. Similar but less absolute considerations likely apply to labs in Britain.)
The cases by specimen date, rather than reporting date, also suggest that – figures for the days just before Christmas have been revised upward to 130-140k, suggesting tests were in the queue for processing.
As ever the important data is hospital occupancy, not cases. Admissions are at maybe 2000 per day, which looks bad (though still only half the levels in January) – but with the average stay length reduced the actual load on hospitals is much smaller. There are about 11,000 people in hospital with* Covid, about the same as the start of Nov 2020 and not even close to the loads in Dec/Jan last winter.
*: with, not of – with maybe 3% of the population having Covid, some of them would have been there anyway. EDIT: there are about 125,000 beds in the NHS, let’s say winter usage is about 100k, you’d expect about 3000 occupants brought in for other things to have Covid assuming an even distribution of Covid
Before we knew anything for sure about severity, it looked like we might be in trouble if daily reported positive cases reached 150k/day. Even with the caveats above, the “real” rate today is probably around that. But fortunately we now do know that the severity is significantly lower, so we shouldn’t be in trouble even with twice as many cases. And that’s without considering the ongoing third vaccination programme, which by now should be rolled out and effective for all the at risk groups.
AHH I remember the. “we are not South Africa” line. When people were saying it is mild.
Have we moved onto
There is a lag for deaths.?
We need one of those bingo boards for the people who want restrictions 😂
Meanwhile Piers Corbyn and his band of merry plague rats are harassing staff at a testing centre, vandalising the place, and stealing supplies.
I am quietly delighted with the past couple days figures, believe it or not.
London has clearly peaked, which is HUGE, if thats as bad as it gets we have real world data that without any measures we can ride this wave out and likely the end of the pandemic phase into endemic.
We are now 3 or so weeks into Omicron, if this is all it has to throw at us this could be our ticket off this ride. Hopefully I can get covid in the next few weeks so I have immunity too. Knowing everyone will catch it in the next few weeks or months takes a huge weight off my mind as I am no longer worried about “if” merely “when”.
I honestly could see us declaring the end around March if things hold their course.
Fair play to the government they appear to have made the correct bet.
Looks like the last step in Plague inc. Get everyone accustomed to the virus, maximise the infection rate, and boom, mutate so it kills everyone
This is a huge number for just one day! A million people in the last 7/10 days, and obviously cases are always under-reported.
This could be great news if hospitalizations and deaths keep relatively low, it could be the end of the pandemic! Basically everyone catches the virus so it’s gone. Fingers crossed!
Got my positive test today. I know more people who have got it in the past week than during 2020.
It doesn’t surprise me, it feels like it is absolutely everywhere at the moment.
I just hope, and I mean this in the most sincere way possible the early studies about the new varient potentially being milder are true, the last year was just horrible.
Its easy to hyper focus on hospitals (vital as they are) but you also have to consider, they have patients who although medically fit, they can’t discharge into the community due to lack of (social) care provision.. and unfortunately the longer these individuals remain in that setting the more likely given time they may either acquire covid (if they’ve not already had it recently) or another infection.
Our family/circle of friends didn’t do Christmas this year either (like last) mainly because of their jobs.. and it feels like I dodged a bullet because low and behold several of them went down with it within the last week (without going too much into it, selfish colleagues – care setting as well!)
Regardless of the mood of this sub, let’s be honest now this is just numbers on a screen to 90% of the UK population at this point.
Between almost 2 years of fear fatigue, months of semi-normality and the vaccine rollout (along with the “I’ve done my part” feeling that comes with it), your average person on the street is done.
And frankly, who can blame them?
Overall, it’s looking better than a week ago despite the shocking case numbers. Omicron is most advanced in London, cases have skyrocketed and hospital admissions have climbed, but there has only been a fairly small increase in the number of patients on ventilation so far. We can expect this to climb as hospitalisations and deaths lag behind cases, but Omicron is causing a lower proportion of severe cases. London has a relatively low vaccination rate so the most of the country should fare a bit better.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsRegion&areaName=London
The biggest problem right at the moment is a large proportion of healthcare workers are off sick or self-isolating.
But we don’t know how high this wave can go, especially after all the Christmas mixing. Something north of 2,000 daily admissions look likely.
Pretty sure this number includes about 5 days of Northern Ireland cases. Still probably a big number regardless.
Ffs cases aren’t the measure we need. Tell me how many hospitalisations m, specifically from omicron, we have.
Why is nobody mentioning the fact that dispite omicron making up over 90% of cases (vs Delta) in the last 12 days, omicron hospitalizations make up around 8% of total hospitalizations.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-omicron-daily-overview
Taken from the gov reporting. Is there something wrong with this data??
isn’t the point of vaccines that cases don’t matter that much because people won’t go to hospital ? I guess the goalposts have shifted again…
There’s a lot of fence sitters, who don’t want to seem overly optimistic. And there’s a lot of doomsters. But day on day, the data from the UK and elsewhere is showing us two things.
1) Vaccines, especially after the booster, offer very good protection from Omicron. So there is no fear of a huge wave of excess death. At worst, hospitals could get close to the Delta peak, but even without restrictions they look unlikely to breach that, due to vaccine protection/mildness of disease and length of stays (Remember restrictions were brought in to limit Delta hospitalisations to the level they peaked at).
2) No restrictions will stop the spread of Omicron in any substantial way. Even if we could muster the social willpower to re-enter 2020 lockdown (practically impossible) I don’t think it would do much other than spread the case load out over a couple of extra months. I think most people will be exposed to this before mid-spring. Anyone still talking about restrictive measures on freedoms, or in schools or to protect vunerable groups has their head firmly in the sand or is seeking to prolong some form of gain from the pandemic.