Ukraine and Russia can’t break their stalemate because their troops are spread too thin over 745 miles, UK intel says
by AbleismIsSatan
Ukraine and Russia can’t break their stalemate because their troops are spread too thin over 745 miles, UK intel says
by AbleismIsSatan
6 comments
But mostly because of artillery, drones and land mines.
They are breaking stalemate in at least two places. Adiivka and dnjeper in south. Slowly but this is really breakthrough and not stale mate!
It is **not** a stalemate, even if journalists are **incessantly** going out of their way to declare it a ‘stalemate’. Already by late March 2022(!) the New York Times wrote “[How One Month of War in Ukraine Ground to a Bloody Stalemate](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/24/world/europe/ukraine-war-russia-stalemate.html)” – a mere week before Russia retreated from Kyiv and most of north Ukraine, and of course before Ukraine’s counteroffensives reclaimed all of Kharkiv and much of Kherson.
It’s not a stalemate because both sides are suffering **unsustainable attrition**. They simply can’t go on like this indefinitely. It is the attritional phase of a war-of-attrition.
Even if both sides get weaker, the side suffering less relative attrition is going to get relatively stronger, and sooner or later will be strong enough to mount a successful offensive. The defending side may then become relatively stronger (as the remaining forces have less territory to defend, they’re more concentrated) and you may return to an attritional phase. (which to an extent is what happened after Kherson was retaken)
A stalemate is what would happen if both sides suffer about the same levels of attrition, rendering neither able to advance _either presently or in the future_. Ultimately the conflict may then cool down to sustainable levels of attrition, in which case you have an actual ‘frozen conflict’.
But at the moment it’s not that. At the moment Russia is losing 30 AFVs and 17 tanks a day on average over the past month, per Ukrainian claims. That’s _not_ sustainable. You could divide those numbers by four and it’d still be unsustainable.
Frozen conflict is good for Russia. Gives them more time to make minefields and rebuild their military.
Sadly, it is freezing. Ukraine is pinned on every front
If Ukraine, a country 1/5 the size of Russia can stop Russia in its tracks, that’s not a stalemate.
Ok, Russia, place all your troops in one tight formation for a… wrecking ball move to break Ukraine’s front. Yes, a nice tight ball….