Almost half of people who voted for the SNP at the last general election do not plan to back the party again, according to a new poll.
Research suggests that voters plan to punish both the Conservatives and the SNP after 13 and 16 years in office, respectively, and that almost two thirds of people expect Labour to win the election.
Sir Keir Starmer’s party extended its lead to six points over the SNP, winning 38 per cent of the vote compared with 32 per cent for the nationalists when undecided respondents were not taken into account.
Labour would comfortably become Scotland’s largest party, regaining swathes of seats that it lost to the SNP in 2015.
Analysis by Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University and a polling expert, said this would see Labour return 32 MPs under current boundaries while the SNP would collapse to just 15 seats from the 48 the party won in 2019.
The Conservatives would win seven seats and the Lib Dems five, both of which are an increase of one on their current numbers.
SNP strategists may take some comfort from 14 per cent of people still being undecided, meaning a significant section of the electorate would still be in play when margins in many seats across central and the west of Scotland are expected to be tight. Labour’s lead when undecided respondents are included is 28 per cent to the SNP’s 24 per cent.
The polling found that only 55 per cent of respondents who voted SNP at the 2019 general election would back the party again.
The Conservatives fare even worse, holding on to only 48 per cent of their 2019 voters in Scotland. Labour picked up 18 per cent of 2019 Tory backers, 21 per cent from the SNP and 38 per cent from the Liberal Democrats, while retaining 75 per cent of their own supporters.
The research also found weakening ties between support for independence and support for the SNP, with the nationalists being backed by only 53 per cent of those who indicated they would vote “yes” in a second Scottish independence referendum.
This represents a large decline from previous Westminster and Holyrood elections when this number regularly exceeded 80 per cent, according to past data from the same academics.
Dr Fraser McMillan, of Glasgow University, a researcher with the election survey, said: “The data reinforce the impression we’ve been getting for most of this year that Scottish voters are ready to punish the SNP and the Conservatives, with both parties having spent a long time in power at Holyrood and Westminster respectively.
“Labour are currently attracting voters from all the other major parties and picking up around 20 per cent of Yes supporters in Westminster vote intention. The SNP’s dominance over the last decade has been built on monopolising pro-indy Scots but they’re finally seeing some of that support drift away.”
Professor Ailsa Henderson, of Edinburgh University, the principal researcher for the study, said there was “an incredible amount of volatility in the results” and that a divide was emerging between how people plan to vote at Holyrood and Westminster.
The SNP maintained a slight edge over Labour in vote intention for the constituency ballot at the next Scottish parliament election by 35 per cent to 32 per cent when undecideds were removed.
However, the Scottish government received a net rating of minus 20 when people were asked if they have done a good or bad job since winning the last election. That was less harsh than the assessment of the UK government, which was rated minus 68 when “bad” ratings are subtracted from “good”.
Scottish voters have also become more pessimistic over the year since the last survey was carried out, with 43 per cent of people saying the country is headed in the “wrong direction”. Only 23 per cent said the country is headed in the “right direction”. In November last year the figures were 39 per cent and 31 per cent, respectively.
Tactical voting will almost certainly play a large part in respective parties’ success or failures. Twenty-one per cent said they would choose their candidate on the basis of which party they would stop. Thirty-seven per cent said a party’s policies were the main reason for gaining their support.
YouGov interviewed 1,244 people aged 16 and above in Scotland between October 20 and 25.
A separate poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies had Labour and the SNP tied on 32 per cent while the Conservatives returned 23 per cent, the Lib Dems 8 per cent, while the Greens and Reform UK were each on 2 per cent.
Curtice said that such a result would see a surge from both the Tories and Labour alongside an SNP collapse. He projected that Labour would win 26 seats under the current boundaries, the SNP 15, Conservatives 13 and the Lib Dems five.
Utter pish as usual. Yoon bots in overdrive this week.
Hands up if you’re one of them!
I’m so sorry Scotland, I’ll make it good next year.
SNP dropping to 15 seats would be a catastrophe for them and start a spiral where things just kept getting worse.
If people don’t believe independence is possible, and clearly now it’s not, then a lot of their vote is gone.
The greens are doing their level best to chase away votes and Alba are clueless.
And yet still no one knows what Starmer is actually for. It’s always easier to vote for a blank canvas and project your wishes on to it, but the ability to *be* a blank canvas goes away once he’s actually in charge.
Honestly I think people are going to be disappointed in Labour given the things that have shown through so far
In a way, it would probably be good for the SNP to be knocked off the top spot for an election cycle.
They’ve become stagnant, and this would certainly refocus them. People are kidding themselves if they think that the SNP are going anywhere as a force, and Labour are so uninspiring under Starmer that I can’t see them making an impression in Scotland whatsoever.
Labour winning would give the SNP the boot up the arse they need, demonstrate that Labour don’t really have anything to offer, and when the SNP return it would have a greater sense of momentum again.
Absolutely. I’m one of them. They just don’t know how to run the country. Too many policies shafting middle earners like tax rises and council tax changes. The power share with the idiotic green party was there biggest mistake.
If the SNP lose disastrously, should the result be taken as a de-facto referendum?
The same thing happened to the SNP that happened to Scottish Labour. People joining them not because they share their values but because they are the only way into power. Carpet baggers in other words.
9 comments
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Almost half of people who voted for the SNP at the last general election do not plan to back the party again, according to a new poll.
Research suggests that voters plan to punish both the Conservatives and the SNP after 13 and 16 years in office, respectively, and that almost two thirds of people expect Labour to win the election.
Sir Keir Starmer’s party extended its lead to six points over the SNP, winning 38 per cent of the vote compared with 32 per cent for the nationalists when undecided respondents were not taken into account.
Labour would comfortably become Scotland’s largest party, regaining swathes of seats that it lost to the SNP in 2015.
Analysis by Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University and a polling expert, said this would see Labour return 32 MPs under current boundaries while the SNP would collapse to just 15 seats from the 48 the party won in 2019.
The Conservatives would win seven seats and the Lib Dems five, both of which are an increase of one on their current numbers.
SNP strategists may take some comfort from 14 per cent of people still being undecided, meaning a significant section of the electorate would still be in play when margins in many seats across central and the west of Scotland are expected to be tight. Labour’s lead when undecided respondents are included is 28 per cent to the SNP’s 24 per cent.
The polling found that only 55 per cent of respondents who voted SNP at the 2019 general election would back the party again.
The Conservatives fare even worse, holding on to only 48 per cent of their 2019 voters in Scotland. Labour picked up 18 per cent of 2019 Tory backers, 21 per cent from the SNP and 38 per cent from the Liberal Democrats, while retaining 75 per cent of their own supporters.
The research also found weakening ties between support for independence and support for the SNP, with the nationalists being backed by only 53 per cent of those who indicated they would vote “yes” in a second Scottish independence referendum.
This represents a large decline from previous Westminster and Holyrood elections when this number regularly exceeded 80 per cent, according to past data from the same academics.
Dr Fraser McMillan, of Glasgow University, a researcher with the election survey, said: “The data reinforce the impression we’ve been getting for most of this year that Scottish voters are ready to punish the SNP and the Conservatives, with both parties having spent a long time in power at Holyrood and Westminster respectively.
“Labour are currently attracting voters from all the other major parties and picking up around 20 per cent of Yes supporters in Westminster vote intention. The SNP’s dominance over the last decade has been built on monopolising pro-indy Scots but they’re finally seeing some of that support drift away.”
Professor Ailsa Henderson, of Edinburgh University, the principal researcher for the study, said there was “an incredible amount of volatility in the results” and that a divide was emerging between how people plan to vote at Holyrood and Westminster.
The SNP maintained a slight edge over Labour in vote intention for the constituency ballot at the next Scottish parliament election by 35 per cent to 32 per cent when undecideds were removed.
However, the Scottish government received a net rating of minus 20 when people were asked if they have done a good or bad job since winning the last election. That was less harsh than the assessment of the UK government, which was rated minus 68 when “bad” ratings are subtracted from “good”.
Scottish voters have also become more pessimistic over the year since the last survey was carried out, with 43 per cent of people saying the country is headed in the “wrong direction”. Only 23 per cent said the country is headed in the “right direction”. In November last year the figures were 39 per cent and 31 per cent, respectively.
Tactical voting will almost certainly play a large part in respective parties’ success or failures. Twenty-one per cent said they would choose their candidate on the basis of which party they would stop. Thirty-seven per cent said a party’s policies were the main reason for gaining their support.
YouGov interviewed 1,244 people aged 16 and above in Scotland between October 20 and 25.
A separate poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies had Labour and the SNP tied on 32 per cent while the Conservatives returned 23 per cent, the Lib Dems 8 per cent, while the Greens and Reform UK were each on 2 per cent.
Curtice said that such a result would see a surge from both the Tories and Labour alongside an SNP collapse. He projected that Labour would win 26 seats under the current boundaries, the SNP 15, Conservatives 13 and the Lib Dems five.
Utter pish as usual. Yoon bots in overdrive this week.
Hands up if you’re one of them!
I’m so sorry Scotland, I’ll make it good next year.
SNP dropping to 15 seats would be a catastrophe for them and start a spiral where things just kept getting worse.
If people don’t believe independence is possible, and clearly now it’s not, then a lot of their vote is gone.
The greens are doing their level best to chase away votes and Alba are clueless.
And yet still no one knows what Starmer is actually for. It’s always easier to vote for a blank canvas and project your wishes on to it, but the ability to *be* a blank canvas goes away once he’s actually in charge.
Honestly I think people are going to be disappointed in Labour given the things that have shown through so far
In a way, it would probably be good for the SNP to be knocked off the top spot for an election cycle.
They’ve become stagnant, and this would certainly refocus them. People are kidding themselves if they think that the SNP are going anywhere as a force, and Labour are so uninspiring under Starmer that I can’t see them making an impression in Scotland whatsoever.
Labour winning would give the SNP the boot up the arse they need, demonstrate that Labour don’t really have anything to offer, and when the SNP return it would have a greater sense of momentum again.
Absolutely. I’m one of them. They just don’t know how to run the country. Too many policies shafting middle earners like tax rises and council tax changes. The power share with the idiotic green party was there biggest mistake.
If the SNP lose disastrously, should the result be taken as a de-facto referendum?
The same thing happened to the SNP that happened to Scottish Labour. People joining them not because they share their values but because they are the only way into power. Carpet baggers in other words.