[https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/majority-want-the-criteria-for-vote-on-irish-unity-laid-out-after-general-election/a1500333605.html](https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/majority-want-the-criteria-for-vote-on-irish-unity-laid-out-after-general-election/a1500333605.html)

**55% say next Secretary of State should publish details for triggering border poll, while almost six in 10 also believe 50% plus one is enough to herald constitutional change**

A majority of people in Northern Ireland believe a new Secretary of State appointed after the next general election should publish the criteria for calling a border poll.

Some 55% say the criteria for holding a referendum on our constitutional future should be laid out after the Westminster vote, with 39% opposing that move, according to a [LucidTalk poll for the Belfast Telegraph](https://archive.ph/o/a0GMd/https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/tag/lucidtalk-poll).

Publishing the criteria is supported by 88% of nationalists, 75% of Alliance/Green voters, but just 17% of unionists.

A majority of people here also believe that a 50% plus one vote is enough to determine the outcome of a border poll, but seven in 10 unionists oppose this and want a supermajority.

Former Labour shadow secretary of state Peter Kyle last year pledged to set out the criteria for a referendum if he got the job, but his successor Hilary Benn has made no such commitment.

More than three-quarters of DUP, UUP and TUV voters are against the next Secretary of State laying out the criteria for a vote.

Publishing it is more popular with women (61%) than with men (49%). Pensioners (57%) and 18-24 year-olds (56%) are most likely to be in favour.

Asked what criteria should be taken into consideration for a border poll, a quarter of people think it should be nationalist candidates securing a majority of votes in an Assembly election, or a majority of MLAs elected being nationalist.

One in five people believes the criteria should be a majority vote in the Assembly for a border poll, and 17% say nationalists making up the largest group in Stormont.

Some 15% think the Secretary of State’s decision should be based on opinion polls continually showing 40-50% in favour of Irish unity, while 18% believe the level of support in polls should be continually over 50%.

Some 57% of people say that a 50% plus one vote is all that is required in a border poll: 91% of nationalists, 58% of Alliance/Green voters, but just 27% of unionists.

It is most popular among 18-24 year-olds (71%).

A supermajority of 60% plus one to determine the outcome of a referendum on our constitutional future is supported by just over a third (35%) of people here.

It is the most popular choice among unionists with 62% backing it, compared to 29% of Alliance/Green voters and 6% of nationalists.

A 55% plus one supermajority is the least favoured option with just six per cent of people supporting it.

There are strong class divisions on the rules for a border poll. Some 65% of the middle-class back a simple majority and 29% back a 60% plus one supermajority. But among the working-class it is much closer, with a 49%-45% split respectively.

Some 3,046 people took part in LucidTalk’s online poll for the Belfast Telegraph between October 27 and 30. The sample was scientifically weighted to reflect the Northern Ireland population.

by Constant__18

8 comments

  1. ~61% of people are open to the notion of reunification, should the Irish government of the day table an acceptable plan.

    This poll feels like part of a wider choreography

  2. I thought it is (still) laid out quite clearly in the GFA? What’s the problem? Why is there debate on the matter?

  3. I think a 50% +1 is a basis for a decisive vote on a border poll. I am however willing to compromise and accept 50% +2

  4. 50%+1 winning would be a shit show. Not as big a shit show as 50% -1 keeping the status quo.

    A desirable result would be 65%+ making it a decisive choice amongst voters, but a majority can not be ignored, hence brexit going through, even though it was a complete shit show.

  5. Yes, we need the vote to go through! We also need it to be the way it’s laid out in the GFA , You cannot just change the goal posts on a whim because it suits you or you’re afraid that it will go through!

  6. It barely goddamn matters _what_ percentage we use because no matter how many vote for a UI, loyalists will whine and whinge and move the goalposts until the end of eternity.

    They’ll be igniting their own buses on fire until the sun burns out.

  7. I thought British people loved democracy, why are unionists so against it?

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