Because it now I realize is that if it loses this war, all is lost
Eh, economy does not really matter to the people of russia
Can’t happen soon enough.
Despots will risk all when their neck is on the line
Let it collapse
From a purely strategic and human hubris level – of course this is true. He’s all-in, this is his signature decision for his entire legacy. There was never any chance he stops this legendarily stupid war until he has some sort of prize that remotely covers the damage that he’s done to his country.
Consequently – and understanding Russia’s long history of finding a scapegoat to bear all the blame when things go wrong – if you kill him, the war ends quickly and it will be blamed on him.
People who say “but then, someone worse will come!” haven’t been paying attention to Russian history. In reality – when Russian tyrant dictators fall after military defeats, democratically inclined reformers have followed them. Gorbachev, Yeltsin, Kruschev, Kerensky. Hell – Alexander II emancipated the serfs after losing the Crimean War.
Losing wars is the only thing that brings about change in the rotten Russian system.
Russia’s military hardware has massively lost reputation and the West is making strides in renewable energies. Just keeping its hydrocarbon industry competitive is not feasible due to sanctions. Russia is losing grounds on the only two industries where it had a significant global outreach.
By 2030 (the regular end of Putin’s next term), even if the war stopped right now, even with a total victory, Russia’s economy will be significantly worse off than today. Add do that the constraints of this war and the outlook is outright disastrous.
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Blast through that paywall – [https://archive.ph/wDHCZ](https://archive.ph/wDHCZ)
Because it now I realize is that if it loses this war, all is lost
Eh, economy does not really matter to the people of russia
Can’t happen soon enough.
Despots will risk all when their neck is on the line
Let it collapse
From a purely strategic and human hubris level – of course this is true. He’s all-in, this is his signature decision for his entire legacy. There was never any chance he stops this legendarily stupid war until he has some sort of prize that remotely covers the damage that he’s done to his country.
Consequently – and understanding Russia’s long history of finding a scapegoat to bear all the blame when things go wrong – if you kill him, the war ends quickly and it will be blamed on him.
People who say “but then, someone worse will come!” haven’t been paying attention to Russian history. In reality – when Russian tyrant dictators fall after military defeats, democratically inclined reformers have followed them. Gorbachev, Yeltsin, Kruschev, Kerensky. Hell – Alexander II emancipated the serfs after losing the Crimean War.
Losing wars is the only thing that brings about change in the rotten Russian system.
Russia’s military hardware has massively lost reputation and the West is making strides in renewable energies. Just keeping its hydrocarbon industry competitive is not feasible due to sanctions. Russia is losing grounds on the only two industries where it had a significant global outreach.
By 2030 (the regular end of Putin’s next term), even if the war stopped right now, even with a total victory, Russia’s economy will be significantly worse off than today. Add do that the constraints of this war and the outlook is outright disastrous.