French Intelligence Assessment on Attrition of Russian Tank Numbers – Pre Massive Losses in the Past Month

by golitsyn_nosenko

12 comments

  1. Very interesting article. Even going by the pessimistic option, given this article was published in September prior to the massive tank losses around Avdivka, it suggests Russia is nearing its limits with respect to throwing tanks into action. This looks set to create some serious dilemmas in the very near future for the terrorists.

  2. Quote: “It is within the framework of this scenario that by the beginning of 2024, only 250 tanks may remain in the Russian army, while this will be a “collectible hodgepodge” of archaic T-62M and new T-90M tanks. Under such conditions, the armored units of the Russian army cease to be a significant factor in hostilities against Ukraine.”

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    This “collectible hodgepodge” of archaic T-62M and new T-90M tanks is judged to be the optimistic possibility but we’re already seen this hodgepodge again and again in the videos. There’s no evidence the Russians can put together a tank army of T-90 tanks. Instead they throw them into battle piecemeal in drips and drabs together T-62 tanks and even an occasional T-55.

  3. One of the other fortunate takeaways is that while the west unfortunately is not supplying Ukraine as much as it should, as far as I remember Ukraine is pretty well-equipped as far as anti-tank gear goes. Even if Western support slows, the pattern of Russia losing tanks should still continue.

  5. My money puts it somewhere between the second and third views. I think the attacks on Avdiivka may be a play to use the last large supply of armor to make a final advance before you no longer can. The Russian are definitely depleting stocks of tanks and anyone who thinks they can replace them easily is delusional. The Russians can’t use all of their tanks on this war as they have other assets they must defend.

  6. I choose the OPTIMISTIC option.

    fuhrer putinazi has no other options.

  7. This agrees closely with other sources I have read. The one difference is they are counting all tanks in the Russian army not just the ones in Ukraine. I think there are 800 to 1000 back in Russia not subject to daily losses.

  8. Excerpt of relevant description of the three scenarios:

    >**The first scenario – _optimistic_**. Thanks to the success of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it is possible to increase the rate of losses of the Russians to an average of 12 vehicles per day against the current 2.62 vehicles per day. The level of natural wear and tear of russian tanks is also superimposed on this. It is within the framework of this scenario that by the beginning of 2024, only 250 tanks may remain in the Russian army, while this will be a “collectible hodgepodge” of archaic T-62M and new T-90M tanks. Under such conditions, the armored units of the russian army cease to be a significant factor in hostilities against Ukraine.
    >
    >**The second scenario – _weighted average_**. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are approaching a slightly lower rate of disposal of russian tanks per day on average, and by the beginning of 2024, the russian army should have from 400 to 600 tanks of all types, from T-62M to T-90M. This will be enough for the occupiers only to have a combat-ready tank brigade in all important directions of the front.
    >
    >**The third scenario – _pessimistic_**, or “stagnant” one, in which the russians manage to maintain an acceptable pace of tank fleet renewal, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine fail to cross the average barrier of 2.62 destroyed tanks per day. In such conditions, the russian army will even be able to maintain one combat-ready tank army, which will be capable of conducting coordinated offensive actions.

    It seems to me that, if the FIA is using accurate numbers, the second scenario seems most likely. Ukraine has shown they have no problem knocking out more than 2.62 tanks per day. The question will be if Russia puts 2-3 tanks out near the front per day. If they do, Ukraine will eliminate them.

  9. It’s from a military think tank. An intelligence assessment would be something coming from the DGSE.

  10. This is a war of who will run out of equipment first. Will the West stop supplying or will the Russians burn through everything?

  11. Remember how they only had 1 tank for their victory parade?

  12. If the IAR calculations are anywhere near correct, I can’t understand how the result might be overly ‘optimistic’.
    According to Ukraine’s count, they have so far destroyed 5293 tanks. The remaining 1500 represent about 22% of their initial tank arsenal.
    And that is before Russia’s large tank losses in Avdiivka and Vulhedar since Oct 20.
    The loss of 80% of their tank stock is *catastrophic*, particularly considering they have barely any ability to retool.

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