The West must give Kyiv more weapons, or risk losing Ukraine to Vladimir Putin’s megalomania
by Calm-Measurement-792
The West must give Kyiv more weapons, or risk losing Ukraine to Vladimir Putin’s megalomania
by Calm-Measurement-792
13 comments
The West must give Kyiv more weapons, or risk losing Ukraine to Putin’s megalomania
Now is no time for wavering: Kyiv’s army is more vulnerable than many realise
ROBERT CLARK
8 November 2023 • 3:20pm
Robert Clark
As the year draws to a close, and with it, Ukraine’s much talked about summer offensive to regain ground seized by Russia, it’s important to pause and consider what’s next for Ukraine, and with it, the European security situation more broadly.
Whilst many are quick to dismiss the Ukrainian armed forces’ attempts this autumn to recapture territory across the south and the east of the country, it is crucial to remember an important fact: more ground has been retaken from this summer offensive than Russia managed to take throughout all of 2022. That alone should give sufficient grounds for continued optimism for supporting Kyiv with the military hardware that it desperately requires to help achieve these breakthroughs and advances.
Despite this, Kyiv’s critics – even among its allies – have been keen to critique the Ukrainian commanders’ appetite for risk propensity and the level of their acceptable casualty rates in order to achieve desired progress. But surely that is a question for the Ukrainians themselves, not armchair generals here in western Europe or Washington.
Nonetheless, there are important conversations to be had regarding the nature of the continued financial and military support for Kyiv, as Europe is about to witness its third year of industrialised land warfare with the world’s largest nuclear power.
Up until now, two irrefutable variables undeniably in Ukraine’s favour have been western (read: largely American) military aid, and Ukraine’s stoic fighting spirit and battlefield morale. These two factors, alongside a highly competent command and control structure at the operational level, have largely overcome Russia’s lacklustre battlefield performances, its at times non-existent tactical leadership, outdated and poorly maintained equipment, poorly trained forces, and plunging morale.
However, with the removal of either one of these crucial variables, then the situation suddenly becomes very different. Not solely for Ukraine’s chances of victory, but ultimately for its very survival.
Just as Harold Macmillan famously declared that “events, dear boy, events” were the biggest challenge shaping statecraft, we have already seen just how quickly other geopolitical flashpoints across the globe can affect Washington’s attention, as some missiles and ammunition originally intended for Ukraine have been re-routed to Israel.
Should the United States choose to reduce or scale down its military aid to Kyiv – not inevitable, but possible – then it seriously risks leaving Ukraine tremendously under-equipped to continue recovering further territory next year.
Compounding this worry is the upcoming US election, as politicians will become increasingly aware of potential ‘war fatigue’ among ordinary Americans for a faraway European country, at a time of increased political and public expectancy to help its old ally Israel in a conflict that risks enormous escalation, and which would cause significant more security concerns for Washington than the war in Ukraine.
Should Donald Trump return to the White House, most conclude US support for Ukraine could very realistically reduce from its current c.90 per cent of all military support, to a slow trickle, as Washington would likely prioritise the Middle East in the short-term, whilst increasingly turning its attention to China in the Indo-Pacific. However, that assumes that the Ukrainians could not win Trump around – he is not a pariah in Ukraine, as it was his weapons support in the years preceding the invasion which proved pivotal in the opening week of the war. For a man as temperamental and changeable as Donald Trump, nothing is impossible.
Of course, Kyiv would much rather see Biden win re-election, but faced with a fractious and split Congress on continued military aid packages to Ukraine, even he would face issues in giving Kyiv the support it needs to keep in the fight. Indeed, the Ukrainians are saying they need more advanced weapons to break the Russian lines: a tall ask in any context.
Given all of this, one must conclude a fact that has been obvious to those watching this war closely for months, but which politicians have been painfully slow to recognise: Europe must prepare to pick up the mantle and double-down on military support for Kyiv, or else risk losing Ukraine to Putin’s megalomania. Should the worst happen, then European security will be in an incomprehensibly worse place than it would be if it were to dramatically upscale its support to Ukraine, at a time when American aid should no longer be taken for granted.
The stakes are simply too high for anything less.
Robert Clark served in the British Army, and was involved in combat campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan
Absolutely correct…and also risk loosing way, way , much more!
> Given all of this, one must conclude a fact that has been obvious to those watching this war closely for months, but which politicians have been painfully slow to recognise: Europe must prepare to pick up the mantle and double-down on military support for Kyiv, or else risk losing Ukraine to Putin’s megalomania. Should the worst happen, then European security will be in an incomprehensibly worse place than it would be if it were to dramatically upscale its support to Ukraine, at a time when American aid should no longer be taken for granted.
I’m 100% for the US continuing and increasing support for Ukraine, but that last point bears repeating: This is Europe’s war. Russia has been invading Europe through Ukraine since at least 2014. Europeans who still deny this reality must be sat down and either convinced or rendered politically irrelevant. European countries should be trying to take the lead in aiding Ukraine, and all allies should remove restrictions on where supplied weapons can be used. To do less is deliberately inhibiting Europe’s self-defense, and is crazy.
Driving Russia out of Ukraine should be the minimum goal. Economically collapsing Russia should be the ultimate goal, to provide another chance for Russia to reform.
Biggest alliance in the world talking about megalomania.
Even if you don’t like Ukraine for some reason you ought to realize that Russia is dangerously worse and its aggression cannot be rewarded with a win. For that reason alone it makes sense to arm Ukraine enough that they can liberate their land from the invaders. So far they have liberated half of what Russia had invaded, but now they appear to be at a stalemate. Note how Ukrainians are outnumbered against a country several times bigger than they are. The only way to compensate for this is to provide them with a lot more weapons than Russia can mobilize. The cost? From what I’ve seen reported, so far the US has spent a mere 5% of its annual Pentagon budget on this, resulting in depletion of 50% of the Russian military assets. Imagine if this was increased to 10% for just one more year.
Maybe now is the time for a negotiated settlement while they still have US support. Then in a couple of years maybe Ukraine can pull off the same trick North Vietnam did and retake the whole of the country. However, the US is losing interest and Europe doesn’t have the military industrial capacity to support them.
did you know that Ukraine has a rich cultural heritage dating back centuries? Fascinating, right?
Give them what they need to win and not just enough to hold on…….hurry the fuck up
It’s almost like Biden lied when he said the US can afford 2 wars. We can’t. And it looks like dictator Zelensky (he banned elections “temporarily”)isn’t getting his aid anymore.
I mean … “the West” is now “the East, West, North, South, and Middle.” May as well just say “the modern world.”
But in any event, yes, just as the Allies supported the Soviet Union with supplies and equipment against the jack-booted onslaught of militant totalitarianism in the Second World War, Ukraine’s allies must support Ukraine with supplies and equipment against the jack-booted onslaught of militant totalitarianism today.
As someone who dislikes war and wishes it never happened, I am furious about the current continuing war in Ukraine. But the solution is not for the war to continue endlessly into the future against a helpless civilian population, which is what happens if Ukraine stands alone.
That would be more war, not less war. If you hate war, it makes no sense to want that.
The solution is instead for the war to end as quickly as possible, which means that Ukraine must develop the capacity to decisively repel the Russian invasion. If Ukraine’s friends wish to see Ukraine at peace, that is the only way to get there. Losing the war will not lead to peace. Personally, it pisses me off when peace is impossible, but I do not blame Ukraine for that, that is insane. I blame the person who is driving this war, from the Kremlin. That is who I am pissed off at.
Ukraine will loos this war anyway, so just give up and save the lives of the poor people. To many refugees come to Germany and eu.
Everyone should be delivering the ammo that is needed and additional long rang 300+ km. I think the momentum with these everyone will see the winter offensive that the Russians cannot tolerate.
As much as I want them to, Ukraine will never win without NATO or US interference. If we’re gonna do anything, let’s go every and end it. Not just sending an infinite amount of money while we have so many struggling here