Based on recent opinion polls, would your country’s government get reelected if elections were held today?

by Landrayi

45 comments

  2. Source: [https://europeelects.eu/](https://europeelects.eu/)

    I used the 45%+ mark for yes, due to some parties falling below the treshold, so that would in most cases mean a majority

    In some cases different pollsters showed different results, or it was just too close, those are in yellow

    For Bosnia and San Marino i couldnt find any polls online

    For countries that didnt have polls on their site, like Serbia, i searched Opinion polling for the next Serbian(or that country’s) parliamentary elections, on wikipedia, and got data there.

    For countries(spain and poland) where the government formation process is still ongoing, i used the outgoing government(PiS for Poland and PSOE-Sumar for Spain)

    Russia’s and Belarussian yes is in a different colour, for the obvious reasons, perhaps Azerbaijan couldve been included there too.

    Also just so you know a government not getting reelected doesnt automatically mean the opposition would have a majority. An example of this is Croatia.

    If there are some mistakes please let me know.

  4. Legend is confusing. Why option “Yes” appears twice ?

  5. Georgia would be no if the current goverment didnt buy votes

  7. As the saying goes: one has to win the election, not the polls.

    This is a completely useless map, as the poll results are pretty much inconsequential.

  8. Probably yes, (he will probably rule us until his death) opposition is divided and Erdoğan looks for import Gazans for being his future voters.

    Also 7 percent election threshold made a lot of votes wasted.

  9. As a belgian: what?
    Did you colour us green on the basis that every single party is part of a coalition goverment and therefor it is impossible to not get re elected?

  10. Poland just had an election less than a month ago, i think we’d be in green rn

  11. It’s always hilarious how Bosnia is never ever represented in a statistics map. It’s like they’re incapable of organising a simple poll lmao. Does anyone know the actual reason for this?

  12. Ireland is the hardest no ever, the levels of corruption are immeasurable, only 1st world country that doesn’t even try to hide its corruption, at least in other places they try to hide it

  13. Im from Croatia and unfortunately i have to say that we have permanent government that despite its corruption will get reelected all over again till the end of time.

  15. ~~Idk which poles this post is talking about, but the North Macedonian one is HIGHLY wrong… which is why elections are avoided at any cost right now even though the country is practically falling apart(as it has been since it’s independence)~~

    Apologies, misread the title

  16. It’s very hard to call here, as there will likely be a 3 party coalition.

    No party commands anything even approaching a majority in polling and Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are almost indistinguishable on most topics – both centre / centre right, so could potentially be counted as a single bloc.

    Our polling also tends to only look at ‘first preference’ votes, which doesn’t really consider the very complex machinations of Irish ranked choice, multi seat voting – proportional representation by means of a single transferable vote (PR-STV).

    I wouldn’t really be able to get any sense of if until much closer to an election.

  17. Are you sure about Croatia no? Most polls have a high share of undecided, but if you exclude these, HDZ seems to be comfortably in the lead.

  18. I wish Croatia was “No”. That is optimistic. They get elected by the elderly so if it was some internet poll that fact would not be reflected in it.

  19. In Switzerland the Government is not elected/formed through elections, they follow the magic formula where the largest 4 parties are represented, and an election doesn’t really alter the composition (it only changed once in the past 60 years), so say yes is misleading because it is always yes whatever the result of the elections is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_formula_%28Swiss_politics%29

  22. Great colour scheme. I can almost see the difference between some of the results.

  23. False information.

    With elections coming up in two weeks in The Netherlands, the current biggest party (VVD) is again (one of) the favourite(s) according to the most recent polls. The Netherlands should be green or yellow.

  24. Shouldn’t the Vatican be a ‘no’, considering the most likely circumstances for an election would be the death of their current leader?

  26. Czech is surprising for me I thought everyone liked the General Pavel.

  29. In the case of the UK I think “No” is completely inadequate to describe the situation. “Hell No”? perhaps? “LOL No”?

    Current government is a dead man walking, if they announced an election tomorrow people would immediately start queueing outside piling stations

  31. As a colourblind person I was really really confused until I zoomed in

  33. The current swedish government would be voted out no problem

  35. The government doesnt have a lead in ANY poll in Sweden, what shit are you smoking? The average gap in polls is literally 8-9%. All parties that would fall out with current polls are government parties.

  38. Sorry but this map is BS. You can’t put the same thing under two colors and not explain the difference.

  39. Where is this data from? Portugal just had its prime-minister resign and it was revealed that there is an ongoing investigation into widespread corruption in the current Government. Elections should take place in February.

  42. Please note that this means would it get reelected IN ITS CURRENT COMPOSITION

    Wether or not these governments would then take in an another party to maintain a similar government, idk, so thats not included.

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