Russia has amassed an estimated 40,000 troops around Avdiivka as it prepares for a third wave assault on the shattered eastern town, the Ukrainian military has said.
“They are building up reserves. They’ve brought in about 40,000 men here along with ammunition of all calibres,” said Anton Kotsukon, spokesperson for the 110th separate mechanised brigade. “We see no sign of the Russians abandoning plans to encircle Avdiivka.”
Russian forces, he said, had surrounded the town on three sides and were “playing cat and mouse”, sending up “huge numbers” of drones to scout out Ukraine’s defences.
The Russian military has focused on eastern Ukraine after failing to advance on Kyiv in the early days of its invasion, and have been pounding Avdiivka since mid-October. Online videos show apartment buildings reduced to shells, with 1,500 of its 32,000 pre-war residents remaining.
Ukrainian forces regard the town as a gateway for future advances to recapture territory in the east.
If it goes on like that, they are gone in 2 months.
So, a target rich environment, as they say.
Wagner lost like 25k in Bakhmut
ruSSian roulette – let’s go all in on (blood)red
40,050 troops, if you count Republican senators
Crazy how the hell does the Russians have manpower enough to do this without having done a new mobilization. So messed up. I guess Putin really want a win before the election, and this is what it’s all about?
Just looked at the weather forecast for Avdiivka: rain 10 of the next 14 days. I imagine that is not conducive to movement, by foot or by vehicle given the region’s notorious rasputista.
Could a few well placed HIMARs reduce this number?
40 000 in a frontal assault? Who is advicing the Russians? The Chinese people’s liberation army?
Now where the fuck do you hide 40k troops? Sounds like something for GMLRS and ATACMS.
Sorry. 40K troops???? for one town? are they that ineffective or is this normal?
I feel for those brave Ukrainian soldiers. Facing 40,000 (even if they are not well equipped) is a daunting prospect. Hopefully, they will feel our support.
We need coordinates and locations of this trops.
Given there’s 100k troops trying to take Kupiansk and they’ve made almost no gains there, I imagine it’ll look the same or worse in Avdiivka.
What is the Russian logic in waiting for mud season before starting a massive advance? 🤔
Ruzzians are a scourge on this planet. Hoping Ukraine is well prepared for this.
is this the part where they say 40k troops, but they are counting those already dead? I know they recruit 20k a month, but I also know Ukraine takes out like 17k a month as well so…..
Avdiivka Turkey shoot….when you see every problem as a nail, you keep hitting them with hammers.
in this case the vatniks are just going to a make a bigger hammer.
Even if the RA takes Avdiivka, the losses it will endure ,based on previous attacks, are going to severely weaken its overall effort for months to come.
My guess:
Numbers will go up between the 1000-1500 a day again.
This will last 2 weeks.
Ukraine abandons Avdiivka.
Ukraine expands it’s control on the riverside.
Russia has won a few miles, lost another 15k of soldiers and has to rerout whatever is left of the soldiers at Avdiivka to counter the new front at the river.
Lives lost, no gains, more madness.
Funeral companies must be doing well in russia. Is putin heavily invested in funerals busines?
My thoughts on this:
* I think the 40K troops is an estimate, and potentially hyperbole. If they had such resources available they would have used them in the initial attack when they possessed an element of surprise. Furthermore it is not like you can hide the staging of that large an amount of men – and their staging grounds even if 20km+ in the rear are in easy range of 155mm, drone, Himars and more. I think the 40k is in reality 5k-10k tops.
* Looking beyond the raw number whatever it might be I also question the training and equipment level of any new ruzzian reinforcements. I suspect both are very lacking.
* Ruzzian meat waves have been monumentally unsuccessful. Those meatwaves are going to suffer even more in the inclimate fall and winter weather.
* Against the backdrop of the statements about all these ruzzian soldiers gathering at Avdiivka there are intelligence reports indicating that ruzzians are pulling back troops to Crimea and they are facing more and more pressure on the south bank of the Dnipro where Ukraine seems to be expanding its footprint.
Perhaps ruzzia intends another foray at Avdiivka. I think the current weather favors the defender and gives Ukraine time to plan and execute a defense optimized to kill lots of ruzzians. No matter the number attacking I believe it will be cold day in hell for ruzzia if they attempt another major assault and the overwhelming majority are going to die badly and futilely.
I hate to think so, but it’s sounding more & more like the Ukrainian counter-offensive has failed.
If HIMARs rockets with the tungsten shrapnel were feeling unappreciated in Avdiivka…it looks like it’s finally gonna be party time for them! Artillery cluster munitions will get jealous.
I hope the result is 40,000 dead Russian
Epic
Russia is treating actual people as numbers, like you would treat video game characters, pulling from every region they have forced into submission also, Donetsk, Chechnya, Georgia and now even Ukrainian POWS, to what end?
27 comments
**From The Telegraph:**
Russia has amassed an estimated 40,000 troops around Avdiivka as it prepares for a third wave assault on the shattered eastern town, the Ukrainian military has said.
“They are building up reserves. They’ve brought in about 40,000 men here along with ammunition of all calibres,” said Anton Kotsukon, spokesperson for the 110th separate mechanised brigade. “We see no sign of the Russians abandoning plans to encircle Avdiivka.”
Russian forces, he said, had surrounded the town on three sides and were “playing cat and mouse”, sending up “huge numbers” of drones to scout out Ukraine’s defences.
The Russian military has focused on eastern Ukraine after failing to advance on Kyiv in the early days of its invasion, and have been pounding Avdiivka since mid-October. Online videos show apartment buildings reduced to shells, with 1,500 of its 32,000 pre-war residents remaining.
Ukrainian forces regard the town as a gateway for future advances to recapture territory in the east.
**More here:** https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/11/09/russia-ukraine-zelensky-putin-war-latest-news2/
If it goes on like that, they are gone in 2 months.
So, a target rich environment, as they say.
Wagner lost like 25k in Bakhmut
ruSSian roulette – let’s go all in on (blood)red
40,050 troops, if you count Republican senators
Crazy how the hell does the Russians have manpower enough to do this without having done a new mobilization. So messed up. I guess Putin really want a win before the election, and this is what it’s all about?
Just looked at the weather forecast for Avdiivka: rain 10 of the next 14 days. I imagine that is not conducive to movement, by foot or by vehicle given the region’s notorious rasputista.
Could a few well placed HIMARs reduce this number?
40 000 in a frontal assault? Who is advicing the Russians? The Chinese people’s liberation army?
Now where the fuck do you hide 40k troops? Sounds like something for GMLRS and ATACMS.
Sorry. 40K troops???? for one town? are they that ineffective or is this normal?
I feel for those brave Ukrainian soldiers. Facing 40,000 (even if they are not well equipped) is a daunting prospect. Hopefully, they will feel our support.
We need coordinates and locations of this trops.
Given there’s 100k troops trying to take Kupiansk and they’ve made almost no gains there, I imagine it’ll look the same or worse in Avdiivka.
What is the Russian logic in waiting for mud season before starting a massive advance? 🤔
Ruzzians are a scourge on this planet. Hoping Ukraine is well prepared for this.
is this the part where they say 40k troops, but they are counting those already dead? I know they recruit 20k a month, but I also know Ukraine takes out like 17k a month as well so…..
Avdiivka Turkey shoot….when you see every problem as a nail, you keep hitting them with hammers.
in this case the vatniks are just going to a make a bigger hammer.
Even if the RA takes Avdiivka, the losses it will endure ,based on previous attacks, are going to severely weaken its overall effort for months to come.
My guess:
Numbers will go up between the 1000-1500 a day again.
This will last 2 weeks.
Ukraine abandons Avdiivka.
Ukraine expands it’s control on the riverside.
Russia has won a few miles, lost another 15k of soldiers and has to rerout whatever is left of the soldiers at Avdiivka to counter the new front at the river.
Lives lost, no gains, more madness.
Funeral companies must be doing well in russia. Is putin heavily invested in funerals busines?
My thoughts on this:
* I think the 40K troops is an estimate, and potentially hyperbole. If they had such resources available they would have used them in the initial attack when they possessed an element of surprise. Furthermore it is not like you can hide the staging of that large an amount of men – and their staging grounds even if 20km+ in the rear are in easy range of 155mm, drone, Himars and more. I think the 40k is in reality 5k-10k tops.
* Looking beyond the raw number whatever it might be I also question the training and equipment level of any new ruzzian reinforcements. I suspect both are very lacking.
* Ruzzian meat waves have been monumentally unsuccessful. Those meatwaves are going to suffer even more in the inclimate fall and winter weather.
* Against the backdrop of the statements about all these ruzzian soldiers gathering at Avdiivka there are intelligence reports indicating that ruzzians are pulling back troops to Crimea and they are facing more and more pressure on the south bank of the Dnipro where Ukraine seems to be expanding its footprint.
Perhaps ruzzia intends another foray at Avdiivka. I think the current weather favors the defender and gives Ukraine time to plan and execute a defense optimized to kill lots of ruzzians. No matter the number attacking I believe it will be cold day in hell for ruzzia if they attempt another major assault and the overwhelming majority are going to die badly and futilely.
I hate to think so, but it’s sounding more & more like the Ukrainian counter-offensive has failed.
If HIMARs rockets with the tungsten shrapnel were feeling unappreciated in Avdiivka…it looks like it’s finally gonna be party time for them! Artillery cluster munitions will get jealous.
I hope the result is 40,000 dead Russian
Epic
Russia is treating actual people as numbers, like you would treat video game characters, pulling from every region they have forced into submission also, Donetsk, Chechnya, Georgia and now even Ukrainian POWS, to what end?