> China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions grew 10% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2023, rising approximately 1% above the record levels seen in 2021.
> The new analysis for Carbon Brief, based on official figures and commercial data, shows the increase was driven by two factors.
> First, the comparison is being made with the second quarter of 2022, when emissions were still suppressed due to the Covid lockdowns which had shut down Shanghai and much of the country.
> Second, the ongoing drought has seen a plunge in the output of China’s large hydropower fleet.
> Without these one-off factors, China’s emissions would likely now have stabilised.
> Looking ahead, China’s economic recovery after the lifting of Covid controls has been sluggish, raising expectations of a new round of carbon-intensive stimulus measures.
> China is also continuing a surge in coal power construction that started last summer, with investments in coal-based steel capacity continuing at a high rate. Much of this will be completed in the “15th five-year plan” period (2026-2030), when China has pledged to reduce the consumption of coal.
> On the other hand, investment in low-carbon energy continues to grow at a staggering pace. If low-carbon capacity growth meets forecasts, it would be sufficient to cover expected electricity demand growth and could even put China on track to peak its emissions within two years.
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> China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions grew 10% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2023, rising approximately 1% above the record levels seen in 2021.
> The new analysis for Carbon Brief, based on official figures and commercial data, shows the increase was driven by two factors.
> First, the comparison is being made with the second quarter of 2022, when emissions were still suppressed due to the Covid lockdowns which had shut down Shanghai and much of the country.
> Second, the ongoing drought has seen a plunge in the output of China’s large hydropower fleet.
> Without these one-off factors, China’s emissions would likely now have stabilised.
> Looking ahead, China’s economic recovery after the lifting of Covid controls has been sluggish, raising expectations of a new round of carbon-intensive stimulus measures.
> China is also continuing a surge in coal power construction that started last summer, with investments in coal-based steel capacity continuing at a high rate. Much of this will be completed in the “15th five-year plan” period (2026-2030), when China has pledged to reduce the consumption of coal.
> On the other hand, investment in low-carbon energy continues to grow at a staggering pace. If low-carbon capacity growth meets forecasts, it would be sufficient to cover expected electricity demand growth and could even put China on track to peak its emissions within two years.