We stopped talking about sanctions almost completely after first 10 rounds. Clearly all but few very ineffective. Remember how we were supposed to prevent Russians from using SWIFT – well that didn’t work out.
Global trade rules and war crimes and raped children don’t matter on a global scale.
Russia has China, India, South America, Africa… at least 4/5 of the world population on their side or at least neutral and more than willing to trade with them.
“West” is looking pretty toothless. I expect its influence will be even weaker in future.
I can’t see the problem. That is what is expected. You can’t enforce a cap like that, you can use the cap to lower the sales price of all oil export slightly. And that’s fine.
TL; DR — by the numbers, it worked well for a while, now it seems that Russian exporters have gradually found ways around the existing enforcement mechanisms, necessitating adaptation to changing conditions.
Which should surprise no one.
When was the last sanction package implemented? This can’t just stop and stay the same for months, of course Russins will find a way around the sanctions, especially when their friends have been doing it for decades.
Every time you see “Western officials” think of a politician that could have a motive to provide an anonymous statement that could be creatively interpreted as what the article says. (Forget about the headline). I’m not saying it’s Orban but he is definitely a “western official”. Then read the article carefully because it might turn out it doesn’t say what the headline claims.
For example, the price is just a part of the equation. What is the volume, transport cost and profit margin? It might be more expensive to transport oil by ship than a pipeline. Could the seller have an interest in making it look like the sanctions aren’t working? How come there a fuel shortage in Russia if they can make fuel?
The straight answer to stop this is letters of marque. All Ukraine has to do is seize a couple of tankers and insurance rates would skyrocket. No one would be willing to underwrite the insurance rates without a substantial discount on the oil. Letters of marque are totally valid under international law and require no home port. The holders of the letter just have to find somewhere to legally sell “their prize” and a lot of countries would happily buy the ship and cargo at a serious discount.
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We stopped talking about sanctions almost completely after first 10 rounds. Clearly all but few very ineffective. Remember how we were supposed to prevent Russians from using SWIFT – well that didn’t work out.
Global trade rules and war crimes and raped children don’t matter on a global scale.
Russia has China, India, South America, Africa… at least 4/5 of the world population on their side or at least neutral and more than willing to trade with them.
“West” is looking pretty toothless. I expect its influence will be even weaker in future.
I can’t see the problem. That is what is expected. You can’t enforce a cap like that, you can use the cap to lower the sales price of all oil export slightly. And that’s fine.
TL; DR — by the numbers, it worked well for a while, now it seems that Russian exporters have gradually found ways around the existing enforcement mechanisms, necessitating adaptation to changing conditions.
Which should surprise no one.
When was the last sanction package implemented? This can’t just stop and stay the same for months, of course Russins will find a way around the sanctions, especially when their friends have been doing it for decades.
Every time you see “Western officials” think of a politician that could have a motive to provide an anonymous statement that could be creatively interpreted as what the article says. (Forget about the headline). I’m not saying it’s Orban but he is definitely a “western official”. Then read the article carefully because it might turn out it doesn’t say what the headline claims.
For example, the price is just a part of the equation. What is the volume, transport cost and profit margin? It might be more expensive to transport oil by ship than a pipeline. Could the seller have an interest in making it look like the sanctions aren’t working? How come there a fuel shortage in Russia if they can make fuel?
The straight answer to stop this is letters of marque. All Ukraine has to do is seize a couple of tankers and insurance rates would skyrocket. No one would be willing to underwrite the insurance rates without a substantial discount on the oil. Letters of marque are totally valid under international law and require no home port. The holders of the letter just have to find somewhere to legally sell “their prize” and a lot of countries would happily buy the ship and cargo at a serious discount.