SNP admits it overestimated Scotland’s offshore wind capacity | Claim that Scotland could produce 25 per cent of Europe’s offshore wind potential is downgraded to 7 per cent

12 comments

1. (Article)

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   SNP ministers have quietly downgraded their claim that Scotland has a quarter of Europe’s offshore wind potential to just seven per cent, in a major blow to their economic case for independence.

   Neil Gray, the Scottish energy secretary, wrote to a Holyrood committee with the revised estimate after SNP ministers were forced to admit that the 25 per cent figure they had used for years was false.

   Emails disclosed under the Freedom of Information Act showed Mr Gray wanted to bury the update, with his officials writing that he was “not sure we need to draw attention to the issue with a letter to committee”.

   His civil servants told him that was not possible as the Scottish Government had committed to informing parliament when a new figure had been calculated.

   But they agreed to hush up the seven per cent estimate, saying: “No proactive communications are recommended.” This meant that no press release was issued or announcement made when he wrote to Holyrood’s net zero and energy committee in September.

   The SNP had used the 25 per cent figure since 2010 and it was a keystone of the party’s economic case for independence. It was included in the Scottish Government’s white paper on separation, published before the 2014 referendum.

   But a freedom of information request by think tank These Islands disclosed that servants had concerns about its accuracy more than three years ago, with officials stating in Oct 2020 that it had “proved very difficult to source”.

   **Official warning**

   Internal Scottish Government correspondence showed an official warned that it had “never, to my knowledge, been properly sourced”.

   In January 2021, another civil servant warned that “we did recycle those figures quite robotically without really checking them”.

   These Islands discovered that the 25 per cent figure was calculated by combining statistics from two old reports, one of which used a definition of Europe that included only 11 countries and was based on information from 1993.

   But Angus Robertson, the SNP’s constitution secretary, was among the SNP ministers who persisted in using the figure and it was included in the Scottish Government’s National Strategy for Economic Transformation, which was published in March last year.

   Ian Blackford, the SNP’s then Westminster leader, and other nationalist MPs repeated the claim again during a Commons debate on Scottish independence a year ago. The SNP’s Scottish Green coalition colleagues also tweeted it.

   Responding to the updated estimate, Liam Kerr, a Scottish Tory MSP, said: “The SNP have been caught out yet again playing fast and loose with Scotland’s offshore energy potential.

   “Ministers must be open and honest about giving accurate figures – secrecy and cover-up does the renewables sector no favours. This is yet another example of a government that thinks it can get away with anything.”

   **Overstating share**

   Sam Taylor, who runs These Islands, said: “For over a decade, the Scottish Government was overstating Scotland’s share of Europe’s offshore wind potential by a factor of about four times.”

   In his letter to Sir Edward Mountain, the committee’s convener, Mr Gray noted that the Scottish Government had committed to revise the 25 per cent figure.

   An accompanying annex said Scotland’s installed offshore wind capacity was more than 2GW, 16 per cent of the UK total. It said this was around seven per cent of Europe’s capacity and three per cent of world capacity.

   It said that the Scottish Government wants to grow offshore wind capacity to 11GW by 2030, which it said would equate to around 10 per cent of the EU target for the same date.

   But Mr Taylor said this was also misleading as it excluded capacity in the rest of the UK. If the latter was included, Scotland’s 2030 share would fall to 6.8 per cent.

   Mr Taylor noted that this calculation also omitted capacity in Norway, which is not in the EU, which would “push Scotland’s share of a genuinely European total down towards six per cent”.

   The Scottish Government was approached for comment.

2. I understand mistakes can be made, but how do you go go from Scotland produces 25% of Europe’s offshore wind capacity to 7%? The article even states if you include Non-EU countries like Norway, it goes down to 6%. The SNP overestimated Scotlands capacity by about 4 times.

   Using a definition of Europe that only includes 11 countries (there are 44 countries in Europe recognised by the UN) and using data that’s almost 30 years old seems stupid. I don’t think they’re stupid, I think they’re liars.

   I’m enjoying watching The SNP slowly fall apart. The arrogant, smug sence of superiority being wiped from their face is soo satisfying.

3. Once Alex Salmond had the entire office convinced his 3 inch todger was a 12 inch, everybody’s ability to measure was compromised.

4. That’s quite the error, no way around that, but 7% is still good given that’s 7% of the continent not the country.

5. Why is it always “could” with the SNP? What is stopping Scotland producing that wind power right now?

   Is there a conspiracy by WM to prevent windpower ? (A: No)

   According to the efficient market hypothesis, if any form of energy was cheaper or more profitable than other sources then we would be doing more of it.

6. Am I mad or does it start off talking about 25% potential and finishes with 7% currently installed?

7. Salmond’s sums again lol. Its oor poond tae he was shouting during 2014.

   He was an embarrassment to us good people of scotland.

   1 uk poond = 1 salmond.

   Clown.

8. Oil, wind and whisky bois, the new Norway I tell ye

   Free iPad too!

   Couldn’t answer one simple question on the important things you know, like currency, borders etc it was all shitty sound bites and paying STV to re-run Braveheart 24/7.

9. I honestly cannot be bothered to read where the 25% figure came from, but would anyone be kind enough to tell me if the study that came up with it was peer reviewed somehow?

10. Now imagine I went into a club, somehow convinced a woman that I had a 25 cm dong ready and she followed me and then for me to pull out 7 cm instead.

    I doubt she would be thrilled

11. These f*ckwits and grifters making up the SNP do not speak for all Scotland.

    Stuff like this is embarrassing.

12. This is strange reporting, because the figure came from [this report](https://publicinterest.org.uk/offshore/press.php) by Boston Consulting Group on behalf of The Offshore Valuation Group in 2010, which was made up of all the big energy companies and most UK gov’ts.

    A lot of people in this thread don’t know wtf they’re talking about. Scotland is less than 1% of Europe’s population, to have even 6% of it’s offshore resource is massive. Scotland is already effectively 100% renewable electricity while exporting to England. Whatever you think of the SNP it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand that renewables can be a major part of an independent Scotland’s economy.