As we all have witnessed in recent games, our team has displayed some lackluster performances on the field. These performances have raised several questions from the mentality of players to Xavi’s ability to manage and coach the team. To understand the current on-pitch situation a little bit more objectively, I wanted to see if we could visualize how bad (or not so bad) the performances had been based on some basic statistics. I am using some basic statistics from the website fbref (https://fbref.com/en/squads/206d90db/Barcelona-Stats) for this analysis.
The first thing I wanted to check was how clinical the team was in front of the goal. The comparison of expected goals (xG) with actual goals scored in each game can give us an indicator of how wasteful or clinical the team has been with the chances created. Each point on the figure represents one game. The points that are above the line represent the games where the team exceeded the expected goals (clinical performance) and points below the line represent games where the team has been somewhat wasteful with the chances created. The comparison of xG with the goals suggests the team underperformed the xG in about 60% of the total games played so far.
The next question is if the team is creating enough chances compared to the opponents in those games. The comparison of xGs of both teams (Barca and opposition) for each game can answer this question. This comparison shows a slightly different picture. Barca had better quality chances created compared to the opponents with some notable exceptions such as games against Alavés and Shakhtar (A). If we look at the Ds and Ls, those are mostly the result of the opposition vastly outperforming their xG (for example, that ridiculous strike by Bellingham in the Classico).
I also wanted to see the effectiveness of progressive passes made in Xavi’s system. In other words, are the most dangerous players being found by the teammates on the pitch during the attacking transition? To answer that, I am comparing progressive passes received by each player (passes that advance the ball by at least 10 yards, excluding the passes made in the defensive third) with his expected goal contribution (assist + np goals). According to these stats, it looks like Balde is receiving a lot of progressive passes that are not directly leading to threats. On the other hand, it does look like Lewandowski is receiving a decent number of progressive passes in positions that can lead to good goal-scoring opportunities based on his expected goal contribution.
I am aware that this is a somewhat rudimentary analysis based on some basic statistical indicators and these data can be interpreted in several different ways. However, based on this analysis it appears that Xavi’s “system” has been able to create a decent number of opportunities. However, the finishing has not been up to the mark.
by Subtle-Warning-404
4 comments
This is really interesting, thank you for this!
Seems FBref no longer you to export data. Assuming you didn’t have to manually enter the values, it would be interesting to see a rolling average graph of our xG-xGA throughout Xavi’s tenure.
So basically xavi’s system creates changes but the players just cant finish
Lewy so high on progressive pass list shows he’s not playing his main role as a striker and instead taking part in buildups more. We want him in the box instead, scoring like he did against Alaves. One would expect Lewy in the bottom right corner of the third graph.