Labour has opened up an eight-point lead over the Tories after a punishing few weeks for Boris Johnson, a poll commissioned by The Sunday Times reveals today.
Nearly 25,000 people were asked about their voting intentions, and the results give the first detailed insight into the public’s perception of Johnson’s handling of the sleaze scandals engulfing his party.
The findings of a constituency-by-constituency poll conducted on December 1-21 suggested Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, would have won a general election with a 26-seat majority. Johnson would have lost his seat of Uxbridge & South Ruislip, the first sitting prime minister to have been ejected from parliament.
Five other cabinet ministers, including Alok Sharma, the Cop26 president, and George Eustice, the environment secretary, would also have lost their seats, according to the survey by Focaldata.
The poll was taken over a three-week period in which Johnson suffered a damaging backbench rebellion, a by-election defeat in a seat the Tories had held for nearly 200 years, revelations of illicit parties held in Downing Street last Christmas and a surge in Omicron cases.
While some Conservatives will be shocked by the findings, many will think it could have been much worse and will be surprised Starmer has not fared better in “disastrous December”.
Just over two years ago Johnson led the Tories to their biggest election victory since Margaret Thatcher in 1987. But the Conservative coalition he built on the foundations of Brexit appears to be crumbling, with Labour picking up votes in its former heartlands. The Tories won 365 seats with a 43.6 per cent share of the vote, gaining 48 seats, against Labour’s 202 with a 32.1 per cent share, a loss of 60.
The new poll put Labour on 40 per cent and the Tories on 32 per cent. It predicted Labour would win 338 seats and the Conservatives 237. This would represent the Conservatives’ lowest haul since Michael Howard led the party in the 2005 general election.
The Scottish National Party would remain the dominant party in Scotland, with 48 of the 59 seats, in what will be interpreted as a vote of confidence in Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister.
The Liberal Democrats, who have celebrated two shock by- election victories this year, first in Chesham & Amersham in June and then in North Shropshire this month, would have failed to make further progress against the so-called blue wall, according to the poll. It predicted Sir Ed Davey’s party would have won 11 seats, the same as in 2019.
Labour would have made its biggest gains in the red wall seats that propelled Johnson to power in 2019. Starmer would have been expected to take back all 50 seats in the north of England, the Midlands and Wales that voted Labour in 2015 and Conservative in 2019, according to the poll.
Conked out on the sofa, Dilyn the dog was the star of the Johnson family Christmas photographs, which also show the prime minister, his wife, Carrie, and their baby daughter, Romy. The pictures were taken at Chequers as the family held video calls with a GP who leads a vaccination team and a man who cares for his wife with dementia.
Conked out on the sofa, Dilyn the dog was the star of the Johnson family Christmas photographs, which also show the prime minister, his wife, Carrie, and their baby daughter, Romy. The pictures were taken at Chequers as the family held video calls with a GP who leads a vaccination team and a man who cares for his wife with dementia.
His party was also forecast to surge in London, claiming a further 10 seats from the Conservatives, including Chingford & Woodford Green, which is held by Sir Iain Duncan Smith, the former work and pensions secretary, and Kensington.
Labour would have experienced an urban revival outside the capital as well, taking a further 63 seats that were won by the Conservatives in 2019 and 2017. These seats include those in larger towns such as Reading, Milton Keynes, Northampton, Stevenage and High Wycombe.
The party would also have seen a revival in its Welsh heartlands, winning 27 of the 40 seats.
The poll was analysed using the MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) technique, a statistical method that produces predictions based on small geographic area. It is believed to be more accurate than conventional polling.
Justin Ibbett, chief executive of Focaldata, said: “Boris Johnson has overseen a seismic drop in Conservative Party support across all sections of society. It compares to 1997, when Blair took power.
“The big difference now is that Starmer isn’t seen as a leader-in-waiting.”
“Indeed, that Labour performs so well in this MRP poll is more due to Conservative collapse than a resurgent Labour.”
Main voting intention headlines;
Labour 40%, Tories 32%, Lib Dems 11%, Grn 7%.
This MRP poll has Labour picking up seats in Scotland. _In Scotland._
Inject it into my veins.
Sleaze and NHS waiting times. What did for John Major will also bring down Johnson. Watch this space !
Fuck Keir stammer would be even worse, lib Dems will have there best performance in a generation
Actual headline: Johnson slips 8 points behind, even with serial joke Keir Starmer at the helm of Labour
Gotta do the PR campaign though
It’s astonishing what happens to their ratings when certain news outlets shine a light on the Tory party
I’m genuinely impressed by how many people must have drifted from the Tories for this to happen – don’t forget the labour party openly describes itself as Democratic socialist, this really kind of shakes up the idea that tory voters are purely ideology driven.
I doubt it will last. New Year brings a mini reset and if the booster jab rollout continues to go like the clappers he just needs to wait it out until spring.
I’d love to be wrong.
Point 1 – vote with the government to impose mass house arrest
The Tories opened up an 8 point lead against themselves. Starmer and labour have done nothing to achieve this except be there.
Why wouldn’t we all vote for a party that would have us locked down right now?
The same party that helped the Tories force vaccine passports into law.
Think I’ll be voting Lib Dem or indie next time round (assuming my papers are in order of course!)
Umm, let’s be honest shall we?
It’s only just now in this late stage of their sustained campaign of corruption, duplicity and ineptitude that Johnson & Co’s have managed to create an 8 point deficit – and I say that as a die hard socialist who very much would like to see Labour “opening up” a lead.
This speaks firmly to the tolerance of the electorate for a badly managed kleptocracy tbh. Tragic.
It’s scary that people were willing to overlook their throne of lies and hatred but the lockdown party was the tipping point
The only way for Labour to gain a lead was for the Tories to basically trash their own image. British politics.
The British people are neither right wing nor left wing. They vote for whomever puts forward the best argument. That’s it – that’s all there is to it
Labour need to not get carried away with this, they have not “opened up a lead”, the Conservatives have pulled over in the pits for an argument. But if/when they replace Johnson they’ll be back in the race.
Pictured: Worzel Gummidge soiling himself
How is this photo relevant? Help me out here
Good stuff on a poll of 25000 people. The closing poll on election is around 20000 people.
18 comments
Labour has opened up an eight-point lead over the Tories after a punishing few weeks for Boris Johnson, a poll commissioned by The Sunday Times reveals today.
Nearly 25,000 people were asked about their voting intentions, and the results give the first detailed insight into the public’s perception of Johnson’s handling of the sleaze scandals engulfing his party.
The findings of a constituency-by-constituency poll conducted on December 1-21 suggested Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, would have won a general election with a 26-seat majority. Johnson would have lost his seat of Uxbridge & South Ruislip, the first sitting prime minister to have been ejected from parliament.
Five other cabinet ministers, including Alok Sharma, the Cop26 president, and George Eustice, the environment secretary, would also have lost their seats, according to the survey by Focaldata.
The poll was taken over a three-week period in which Johnson suffered a damaging backbench rebellion, a by-election defeat in a seat the Tories had held for nearly 200 years, revelations of illicit parties held in Downing Street last Christmas and a surge in Omicron cases.
While some Conservatives will be shocked by the findings, many will think it could have been much worse and will be surprised Starmer has not fared better in “disastrous December”.
Just over two years ago Johnson led the Tories to their biggest election victory since Margaret Thatcher in 1987. But the Conservative coalition he built on the foundations of Brexit appears to be crumbling, with Labour picking up votes in its former heartlands. The Tories won 365 seats with a 43.6 per cent share of the vote, gaining 48 seats, against Labour’s 202 with a 32.1 per cent share, a loss of 60.
The new poll put Labour on 40 per cent and the Tories on 32 per cent. It predicted Labour would win 338 seats and the Conservatives 237. This would represent the Conservatives’ lowest haul since Michael Howard led the party in the 2005 general election.
The Scottish National Party would remain the dominant party in Scotland, with 48 of the 59 seats, in what will be interpreted as a vote of confidence in Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister.
The Liberal Democrats, who have celebrated two shock by- election victories this year, first in Chesham & Amersham in June and then in North Shropshire this month, would have failed to make further progress against the so-called blue wall, according to the poll. It predicted Sir Ed Davey’s party would have won 11 seats, the same as in 2019.
Labour would have made its biggest gains in the red wall seats that propelled Johnson to power in 2019. Starmer would have been expected to take back all 50 seats in the north of England, the Midlands and Wales that voted Labour in 2015 and Conservative in 2019, according to the poll.
Conked out on the sofa, Dilyn the dog was the star of the Johnson family Christmas photographs, which also show the prime minister, his wife, Carrie, and their baby daughter, Romy. The pictures were taken at Chequers as the family held video calls with a GP who leads a vaccination team and a man who cares for his wife with dementia.
Conked out on the sofa, Dilyn the dog was the star of the Johnson family Christmas photographs, which also show the prime minister, his wife, Carrie, and their baby daughter, Romy. The pictures were taken at Chequers as the family held video calls with a GP who leads a vaccination team and a man who cares for his wife with dementia.
His party was also forecast to surge in London, claiming a further 10 seats from the Conservatives, including Chingford & Woodford Green, which is held by Sir Iain Duncan Smith, the former work and pensions secretary, and Kensington.
Labour would have experienced an urban revival outside the capital as well, taking a further 63 seats that were won by the Conservatives in 2019 and 2017. These seats include those in larger towns such as Reading, Milton Keynes, Northampton, Stevenage and High Wycombe.
The party would also have seen a revival in its Welsh heartlands, winning 27 of the 40 seats.
The poll was analysed using the MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) technique, a statistical method that produces predictions based on small geographic area. It is believed to be more accurate than conventional polling.
Justin Ibbett, chief executive of Focaldata, said: “Boris Johnson has overseen a seismic drop in Conservative Party support across all sections of society. It compares to 1997, when Blair took power.
“The big difference now is that Starmer isn’t seen as a leader-in-waiting.”
“Indeed, that Labour performs so well in this MRP poll is more due to Conservative collapse than a resurgent Labour.”
Main voting intention headlines;
Labour 40%, Tories 32%, Lib Dems 11%, Grn 7%.
This MRP poll has Labour picking up seats in Scotland. _In Scotland._
Inject it into my veins.
Sleaze and NHS waiting times. What did for John Major will also bring down Johnson. Watch this space !
Fuck Keir stammer would be even worse, lib Dems will have there best performance in a generation
Actual headline: Johnson slips 8 points behind, even with serial joke Keir Starmer at the helm of Labour
Gotta do the PR campaign though
It’s astonishing what happens to their ratings when certain news outlets shine a light on the Tory party
I’m genuinely impressed by how many people must have drifted from the Tories for this to happen – don’t forget the labour party openly describes itself as Democratic socialist, this really kind of shakes up the idea that tory voters are purely ideology driven.
I doubt it will last. New Year brings a mini reset and if the booster jab rollout continues to go like the clappers he just needs to wait it out until spring.
I’d love to be wrong.
Point 1 – vote with the government to impose mass house arrest
The Tories opened up an 8 point lead against themselves. Starmer and labour have done nothing to achieve this except be there.
Why wouldn’t we all vote for a party that would have us locked down right now?
The same party that helped the Tories force vaccine passports into law.
Think I’ll be voting Lib Dem or indie next time round (assuming my papers are in order of course!)
Umm, let’s be honest shall we?
It’s only just now in this late stage of their sustained campaign of corruption, duplicity and ineptitude that Johnson & Co’s have managed to create an 8 point deficit – and I say that as a die hard socialist who very much would like to see Labour “opening up” a lead.
This speaks firmly to the tolerance of the electorate for a badly managed kleptocracy tbh. Tragic.
It’s scary that people were willing to overlook their throne of lies and hatred but the lockdown party was the tipping point
The only way for Labour to gain a lead was for the Tories to basically trash their own image. British politics.
The British people are neither right wing nor left wing. They vote for whomever puts forward the best argument. That’s it – that’s all there is to it
Labour need to not get carried away with this, they have not “opened up a lead”, the Conservatives have pulled over in the pits for an argument. But if/when they replace Johnson they’ll be back in the race.
Pictured: Worzel Gummidge soiling himself
How is this photo relevant? Help me out here
Good stuff on a poll of 25000 people. The closing poll on election is around 20000 people.