1. If Russia wins on the battlefield, that is because it can outproduce on the factory floor. It just makes more weaponry 2. The output of weaponry is primarily constrained by the precision metalworking capacities 3. Precision metalworking relies upon the import from the West

7 comments

1. What a naive thinking. Artillery shells and a lot of other munitions are not high tech pieces of equipment. Russia has build these in the millions even during the cold war.

2. Russia will produce more and more stuff irregardless of sanctions. The items Russia produces may not be the latest or greatest, But a Mosin–Nagant will kill you just as dead as the latest M4 Carbine will.

3. Well, yeah. They have a ton of manpower and one of the largest military infrastructures in the world. The fact Ukraine is still fighting this long is a testament to their willingness to fight. This is a war of attrition now and it now comes down to who is the first to breakdown. For Russia, I have no doubt that Putin will continue the war throughout next year in hopes Biden does not get reelected. After that, we’ll see. I do expect Biden will run on continuing aid to Ukraine. Don’t know much about Europe, but it seems there is some war wariness going on as well.

4. Also they have a population that is three times bigger than Ukraine. They can anytime go for official full mobilisation

5. Look at the end of the day Russia has shifted to a wartime economy sure modern warfare that the U.S. would deploy will be impossible for them to match but they don’t think that’s going to happen. Artillery and tanks in volume and a slow but steady stream of 4th gen aircraft is really all they will need if the west doesn’t step it up.

   If they can hold current lines they take the most productive part of Ukraine boosting their economy even wish sanctions, chinas chips are probably good enough and definitely good enough in 5 years for semi modern weapons.

   They aren’t going after a core nato member they well go after a hard to defend Baltic nation and test natos resolve. It doesn’t take too long for russia to build its economy after taking a country.

   Letting Russia will now will have major long term consequences.

6. I think at this point, the “ban on imports from the west” hasn’t done much. It may have slowed down on acquiring new hardware, but everything is working in Russia. Not a commercial plane has fallen, IT stores still have computers, and mobile phones are still available. Despite positive news of sabotage, they still have drones and are punching out new military hardware for troops.

   I’m not really sure how this has affected the larger population. I recall when Burger King pulled out. Within a week or two, the locations were open with another name…

7. Why USA still don’t supply to Ukraine any M1064 mortar carriers?