It will, it’s just “who” and “how” that’s not certain.
Make no mistake, this war is too important to Eastern Europe to go “Welp, we tried” if countries like US or France withdraw their support and Ukraine starts visibly losing. If unity on the matter breaks, there is a second bottom in the form of some “Coalition of the Comitted” that in the better case scenario will still be robust enough to support Ukraine with one more degree of mobilization of the arms industry that’s considerably more costly, but still not toxic to the civilian economy, and in the worst case scenario will be us and the Baltics melting down our pots and pans to make shells.
And I’ll risk another predicition: if said coalition was to be successful (I don’t even feel like I can muster enough dramaticism to make predictions about what would happen if it wasn’t) then, while it wouldn’t be apparent during the course of the war that would still be characterized by attempts to reign the “deserters” back in, the split it emerged from would be the end of any sort of talks of European unity. Suspicion, resentment and radically realist understanding of one’s national interest would return to Europe in a fashion reminiscent of the 1930s. It would be the end of the EU as anything more than a glorified trade pact that needs to quickly scale down its competences to match the new, hard ceiling of its ambitions or risk further turmoil.
I will definitely donate money again in a couple of weeks. For Ukraine aid of course.
Let’s remember: it’s not just Ukraine’s war. It’s all of Europe’s war. If Putin prevails, he won’t stop in Ukraine. Why would he?
He has declared himself the patron saint of all Russians in the world. There are millions of Russians in the Baltic states, in Germany and so on.
I’m sure he has something to say about them too.
Well, I hope HRIM-2 has nuclear capabilities.
West is only staying the course if the aid from the US is approved. If not European countries one by one will slowly stop sending aid.
unlikely
Of course the west has to stay in course. Otherwise Putin will invade even more neighbouring countries and keep progressing.
I hope Trump never wins next year because he will demand Ukraine to be in the negotiating table and accept terms favorable towards Russia.
Well russia is arming itself much better that’s for sure. The situation seems not great from here, but whatever.
I think Europe will stay in, but the question is if we can manage to both provide Ukraine with enough military equipment AND prepare for Russia’s next war front.
It’s not just about money, it’s also about sourcing, production capcities and raw material. The russian war machine is on and we don’t have a plan for how to keep up.
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Fuck yeah!
It will, it’s just “who” and “how” that’s not certain.
Make no mistake, this war is too important to Eastern Europe to go “Welp, we tried” if countries like US or France withdraw their support and Ukraine starts visibly losing. If unity on the matter breaks, there is a second bottom in the form of some “Coalition of the Comitted” that in the better case scenario will still be robust enough to support Ukraine with one more degree of mobilization of the arms industry that’s considerably more costly, but still not toxic to the civilian economy, and in the worst case scenario will be us and the Baltics melting down our pots and pans to make shells.
And I’ll risk another predicition: if said coalition was to be successful (I don’t even feel like I can muster enough dramaticism to make predictions about what would happen if it wasn’t) then, while it wouldn’t be apparent during the course of the war that would still be characterized by attempts to reign the “deserters” back in, the split it emerged from would be the end of any sort of talks of European unity. Suspicion, resentment and radically realist understanding of one’s national interest would return to Europe in a fashion reminiscent of the 1930s. It would be the end of the EU as anything more than a glorified trade pact that needs to quickly scale down its competences to match the new, hard ceiling of its ambitions or risk further turmoil.
I will definitely donate money again in a couple of weeks. For Ukraine aid of course.
Let’s remember: it’s not just Ukraine’s war. It’s all of Europe’s war. If Putin prevails, he won’t stop in Ukraine. Why would he?
He has declared himself the patron saint of all Russians in the world. There are millions of Russians in the Baltic states, in Germany and so on.
I’m sure he has something to say about them too.
Well, I hope HRIM-2 has nuclear capabilities.
West is only staying the course if the aid from the US is approved. If not European countries one by one will slowly stop sending aid.
unlikely
Of course the west has to stay in course. Otherwise Putin will invade even more neighbouring countries and keep progressing.
I hope Trump never wins next year because he will demand Ukraine to be in the negotiating table and accept terms favorable towards Russia.
Well russia is arming itself much better that’s for sure. The situation seems not great from here, but whatever.
I think Europe will stay in, but the question is if we can manage to both provide Ukraine with enough military equipment AND prepare for Russia’s next war front.
It’s not just about money, it’s also about sourcing, production capcities and raw material. The russian war machine is on and we don’t have a plan for how to keep up.