The point is that you need to recognize the fact that the essence of the Ukrainian War was the conquest of the Ukrainian nation by the Russian nation. In the context of this war, Ukraine did not need to win a single battle to win the war, as long as it gave Russia enough losses and problems
by Primary-World-1015
7 comments
Full text(written in April 30, 2022)
I have observed that many people are highly expecting a counterattack from the Ukrainian army, but I think this concept is wrong. First of all, the chance of winning the first counterattack is very small. Given the fact that the equipment gap of Ukraine is nowhere near the 3:1 equipment advantage required by Lanchester’s law, or even the 1:1 strength ratio. Even if the counter-attack “succeeds”, it will make only a small progress and has a high probability of being a pyrrhic victory.
The point is that you need to recognize the fact that the essence of the Ukrainian War was the conquest of the Ukrainian nation by the Russian nation. In the context of this war, Ukraine did not need to win a single battle to win the war, as long as it gave Russia enough losses and problems.
I would like to share this world famous painting: “Washington Crossing the Delaware River”, which is a scene of the American Founding Father, George Washington, leading the Continental Army of the War of Independence to cross a small river to attack the British and Hessian mercenaries. Why did Washington cross the river to attack? The answer is that last week, Washington was defeated by the British army. Washington saw the awful and humiliating situation and had no choice but to sneak in a small stronghold to get a bad victory to prove that he could still fight.
In fact, if you observe the American War of Independence, you will find that the victory rate of the American army was only 30%, and 7 out of 10 battles were lost. Washington was not a great military genius. His characteristic was perseverance, even if he lost the war, he would not be discouraged and would get back up and continue to fight. Others admired Washington’s frankness in facing defeat and reviewing and improving, and his unyielding attitude in the face of adversity, so they were willing to follow him.
The American people at the time recognized that Britain was one of the strongest countries in the world and actually understood that Washington was always defeated. Although Washington was always defeated, he proved that he could still fight and his militia was getting stronger and stronger each time. In this difficult situation for 7 years, the British resources were exhausted, and finally won the victory.
Let me remind you that during the Vietnam War, the Vietcong lost every battle against the U.S. Army, but in the end, they won. In the two wars in Afghanistan, the Afghan people never won a head-to-head battle, but they still ended up defeating the U.S. and the Soviet Union. What you need to understand is that Ukraine does not need to win any one battle to win the whole war. So the first counter-offensive was at best an afterthought, not important at all, and it did not affect the course of the whole war.
We should not think of Ukraine as a Japanese samurai who can kill Russia with a single blow. We should take Ukraine as a cockroach that can’t be beaten to death. If we keep helping Ukraine, we will be able to exhaust Russia’s last drop of blood one day. Therefore, I think the pro-Ukraine crowd should not expect the counterattack to be fruitful. What the pro-Ukraine crowd should think about is how to support Ukraine’s wartime economy, maintain the supply of livelihood and military supplies, and be tolerant and open-minded towards the results of the war.
people convenietnly forget this
Lol anyone claiming it’s a win for Ukraine is insane. How is it a win when they likely could have ended the war in march 2022 on better terms than they will end up with. So many lives could have been saved.
have to figure out how Putin is getting money to the Republicans that are doing his bidding
Agreed! Too much emphasis is placed on possessing territory. The author is totally correct; simply stopping Russia is an amazing feat by the Ukrainians. Additionally, Ukraine has forced the vaunted Black Sea fleet into a humiliating retreat, caused massive materiel and troop losses, strengthened NATO more than any other instance since the fall of USSR, exhibited the inferiority of Russian weapons to NATO’s, … and how much more? Territory may yet be in the offing if the allies simply keep their promises on supplies.
Actually one of the great accomplishments of the war has been to reveal the extent of Putin’s corrupting power on politicians world-wide, and who they are. Hopefully, with Russia’s defeat, these politicians will also disappear from the stage. Trump being the most salient example! This is one reason these Putin toadies fight so hard against Ukraine.
Yes Ukraine stopped Russia from taking over Ukraine as a whole but Russia is still in control of vital Ukrainian land.
The output from Donbas is invaluable in economic terms and having a sea port in Crimea is also invaluable economically and from a defense standpoint.
Russias secondary objectives are currently being satisfied, and if we take this attitude of it’s not so bad, we’ll continue to suffer more territory loss and lives lost.
The attitude we need is more of urgency, to impress upon our allies the need for a much greater volume of weapons and ammunition than we have seen so far.
Unless Russia is totally rebuffed, with it’s edge in equipment and population Ukraine is just biding time without more aid.
Ukraine can use the taliban strategy.