First rule of the Bank of England: the Bank of England is always wrong. That’s as true when inflation is going down as it is when it’s going up. After a week of warnings about persistent inflation we have a massive miss as November CPI (3.9%) comes in way under the forecast (4.4%).
It means, over the past six months, inflation has been just 0.3%. That doesn’t sound even vaguely correct, but that’s what the data shows: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/latest The price level in May 2023 was 131.3 (this was 100 in 2015), and in November 2023: 131.7, that’s just a 0.3% increase.
Interest rates will be fucking slashed next year, we’re way underneath the BoE’s expected curve in their last Monetary Policy report.
“What does that mean for normal people!?”
Buy houses.
“What does that mean for normal people who aren’t rich?”
You’re fucked.
“So we’re fucked when inflation goes down as well as when it goes up?”
Yes. The only consolation is the number of idiot BTLers who rage quit at the worst time because they got their sums wrong and didn’t have enough of a cash buffer to see out the peak rates.
Fuel has come down, the supermarkets don’t seem any cheaper.
But I bought a single item at the supermarket last week and I reckon it had gone up like 75% since I last bought it so this can’t be true. Deep state cover up.
When in the history of inflation has the difference ever been returned to the customer when. It drops food and fuel costs will never drop to anywhere near what they were pre lockdown
Just bear in mind the overall inflation rate is maaaaaasively lower than the current food inflation rate.
Ie in November when the 4% inflation rate was revealed food was still over 10% inflation.
The main driver for the lower overall number is a slow in housing prices inflating.
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About time!
First rule of the Bank of England: the Bank of England is always wrong. That’s as true when inflation is going down as it is when it’s going up. After a week of warnings about persistent inflation we have a massive miss as November CPI (3.9%) comes in way under the forecast (4.4%).
It means, over the past six months, inflation has been just 0.3%. That doesn’t sound even vaguely correct, but that’s what the data shows: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/latest The price level in May 2023 was 131.3 (this was 100 in 2015), and in November 2023: 131.7, that’s just a 0.3% increase.
Interest rates will be fucking slashed next year, we’re way underneath the BoE’s expected curve in their last Monetary Policy report.
“What does that mean for normal people!?”
Buy houses.
“What does that mean for normal people who aren’t rich?”
You’re fucked.
“So we’re fucked when inflation goes down as well as when it goes up?”
Yes. The only consolation is the number of idiot BTLers who rage quit at the worst time because they got their sums wrong and didn’t have enough of a cash buffer to see out the peak rates.
Fuel has come down, the supermarkets don’t seem any cheaper.
But I bought a single item at the supermarket last week and I reckon it had gone up like 75% since I last bought it so this can’t be true. Deep state cover up.
Good to see. Matching the trends in PPI with a lag still, this was visible [months ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/unitedkingdom/comments/14g0g2g/interest_rate_hits_5_after_half_percentage_point/jp3262b/)! Latest PPI is still very deflationary for goods with [input prices -2.6% y/y in Nov](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/producerpriceinflation/november2023).
When in the history of inflation has the difference ever been returned to the customer when. It drops food and fuel costs will never drop to anywhere near what they were pre lockdown
Just bear in mind the overall inflation rate is maaaaaasively lower than the current food inflation rate.
Ie in November when the 4% inflation rate was revealed food was still over 10% inflation.
The main driver for the lower overall number is a slow in housing prices inflating.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/november2023#consumer-price-inflation-rates
Scroll down to the sector breakdown. Inflation without actually talking about the individual sectors is pointless
This isn’t deflation people. This is a slow of inflation.
Things are getting more expensive at a slower pace.
Not less expensive.
Woo, even more poor. What a Christmas this year is shaping up to be!!