Rishi Sunak has been told that net migration is likely to increase before the next election because of a surge in visa applications before the government’s restrictions come into effect in the spring.
The Home Office revealed details of the plans to cut immigration by 300,000 yesterday and confirmed that most of the changes would be introduced in the spring.
The Times has been told that Home Office officials warned that announcing the details several months before they take effect would trigger a rush of applications as people attempt to beat the deadline.
Sunak’s five-point plan to slash immigration was announced earlier this month in a bid to assure Conservative voters that numbers would fall by the next election, after net migration hit an all-time high of 745,000 last year.
However, the Office for National Statistics will not publish its statistics showing how the changes have affected numbers for spring onwards until the end of November, which is likely to be after the general election.
A government source said: “Instead, we’re likely to see an increase in net migration before the election because of the perverse incentive these changes create for people to get their applications in before the cut-off point in the spring.”
Robert Jenrick, who was immigration minister at the time the changes were announced on December 4, heeded the advice from officials and pushed for the changes to be introduced immediately. He was overruled by Sunak.
He warned that delaying the changes until April would lead to a “fire sale” of visa applications.
From the spring, foreign care workers will be barred from bringing family members, known as dependants, to the UK, a measure that the Home Office expects to reduce numbers by about 120,000 per year.
The minimum salary threshold for skilled workers will increase from £26,200 to £38,700 in the spring, which the department believes will reduce numbers by 15,000.
The minimum income needed to bring a foreign partner or spouse to the UK will increase from £18,600 to £29,000, which immigration experts believe will create one of the biggest surges of applications before the changes take effect in the spring.
There will also be big increases in the immigration health surcharge that migrants must pay to use the NHS.
Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, who sits on the government’s independent Migration Advisory Committee, said the delay in the changes taking effect could lead to a rush of applications.
She told The Times: “When policy changes are announced in advance we sometimes see an increase in applications if they are well publicised. But we won’t really know until we see the data.”
Sunak faced fresh criticism today over his decision to soften plans to more than double the minimum income needed to bring a foreign partner or spouse to the UK from £18,600 to £38,700.
The Home Office quietly announced on Thursday that the change would be introduced in stages, with it only rising initially to £29,000 in the spring. It will not reach the full £38,700 until spring 2025, the Home Office revealed.
The Times understands that the decision not to raise it to £38,700 immediately was made following internal warnings from Home Office officials that it would face legal challenges on the basis of claimants’ rights to a family life under the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).
David Jones, deputy chairman of the right-wing European Research Group, branded the climb down from the prime minister “a regrettable sign of weakness”. He added: “It was made worse by the fact that Parliament was not sitting and therefore was unable to interrogate ministers on the reasons for the decision.”
Jonathan Gullis, another right-wing Conservative MP, wrote on X: “This decision is deeply disappointing and undermines our efforts.”
However, Sumption said that £29,000 threshold was still significantly more restrictive than other European countries, where the the minimum level is more designed to ensure foreign nationals will not be living in poverty or relying on state benefits as their main form of income.
Most European countries that have minimum income requirements set their thresholds at between £10,000 to £20,000, she said.
Sumption also warned that the decision to raise the minimum income threshold would disproportionately hit women, as the median average income for female workers is below £29,000.
Of course it is, the “Tough on immigration” Tories are in charge!
And then they’ll wonder why Reform ends up getting 10%+ of the vote
Time to get tough on migration and tough on the courses of migration i.e the con party.
Where is the off-ramp for this, really?
When is it ever going to be “Enough people”?
Odd how the Tories go on about immigration and yet seem unable to deal with it.
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Full text
Rishi Sunak has been told that net migration is likely to increase before the next election because of a surge in visa applications before the government’s restrictions come into effect in the spring.
The Home Office revealed details of the plans to cut immigration by 300,000 yesterday and confirmed that most of the changes would be introduced in the spring.
The Times has been told that Home Office officials warned that announcing the details several months before they take effect would trigger a rush of applications as people attempt to beat the deadline.
Sunak’s five-point plan to slash immigration was announced earlier this month in a bid to assure Conservative voters that numbers would fall by the next election, after net migration hit an all-time high of 745,000 last year.
However, the Office for National Statistics will not publish its statistics showing how the changes have affected numbers for spring onwards until the end of November, which is likely to be after the general election.
A government source said: “Instead, we’re likely to see an increase in net migration before the election because of the perverse incentive these changes create for people to get their applications in before the cut-off point in the spring.”
Robert Jenrick, who was immigration minister at the time the changes were announced on December 4, heeded the advice from officials and pushed for the changes to be introduced immediately. He was overruled by Sunak.
He warned that delaying the changes until April would lead to a “fire sale” of visa applications.
From the spring, foreign care workers will be barred from bringing family members, known as dependants, to the UK, a measure that the Home Office expects to reduce numbers by about 120,000 per year.
The minimum salary threshold for skilled workers will increase from £26,200 to £38,700 in the spring, which the department believes will reduce numbers by 15,000.
The minimum income needed to bring a foreign partner or spouse to the UK will increase from £18,600 to £29,000, which immigration experts believe will create one of the biggest surges of applications before the changes take effect in the spring.
There will also be big increases in the immigration health surcharge that migrants must pay to use the NHS.
Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, who sits on the government’s independent Migration Advisory Committee, said the delay in the changes taking effect could lead to a rush of applications.
She told The Times: “When policy changes are announced in advance we sometimes see an increase in applications if they are well publicised. But we won’t really know until we see the data.”
Sunak faced fresh criticism today over his decision to soften plans to more than double the minimum income needed to bring a foreign partner or spouse to the UK from £18,600 to £38,700.
The Home Office quietly announced on Thursday that the change would be introduced in stages, with it only rising initially to £29,000 in the spring. It will not reach the full £38,700 until spring 2025, the Home Office revealed.
The Times understands that the decision not to raise it to £38,700 immediately was made following internal warnings from Home Office officials that it would face legal challenges on the basis of claimants’ rights to a family life under the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).
David Jones, deputy chairman of the right-wing European Research Group, branded the climb down from the prime minister “a regrettable sign of weakness”. He added: “It was made worse by the fact that Parliament was not sitting and therefore was unable to interrogate ministers on the reasons for the decision.”
Jonathan Gullis, another right-wing Conservative MP, wrote on X: “This decision is deeply disappointing and undermines our efforts.”
However, Sumption said that £29,000 threshold was still significantly more restrictive than other European countries, where the the minimum level is more designed to ensure foreign nationals will not be living in poverty or relying on state benefits as their main form of income.
Most European countries that have minimum income requirements set their thresholds at between £10,000 to £20,000, she said.
Sumption also warned that the decision to raise the minimum income threshold would disproportionately hit women, as the median average income for female workers is below £29,000.
Of course it is, the “Tough on immigration” Tories are in charge!
And then they’ll wonder why Reform ends up getting 10%+ of the vote
Time to get tough on migration and tough on the courses of migration i.e the con party.
Where is the off-ramp for this, really?
When is it ever going to be “Enough people”?
Odd how the Tories go on about immigration and yet seem unable to deal with it.