Ukraine expect security guarantees from the West, not assurances

by nikopoltoday

10 comments
  1. Destoying / transferring to Russia:

    * 3rd world nuclear arsenal
    * strategic bombers
    * medium / long range missiles

    and signing a deal with 3 nuclear states wasn’t the smartest decision.

  2. These are not going to be forthcoming I’m afraid.

    This war has largely been American led on the Ukrainian side.

    The mood here about the war is not good. Many people think it’s some sort of Russia-Republican conspiracy. It’s not.

    Americans are just tired of foreign wars. This is understandable. We have been at war in multiple countries for decades.

    Even though Ukraine does not cost American lives, it is the principle of focusing on some foreign land, throwing tons of money at it, and living on edge of whether they will send our sons and daughters in there. We have also seen the horrors and effects of modern war in ways that the EU has not (except UK, but they are not EU now lol)

    Ukraine and Europe should recognize this fact. The American people are just tired of war. We need a break.

    It kinda breaks my heart to hear our European friends call out our ambivalence towards Ukraine. We need a break. We can’t do everything. This is Europe and the EU’s chance to shine.

  3. Indemnities, I imagine, if we’re getting focussed on the language

  4. Ukraine needs to be given long range (non nuclear) missiles so that they can strike Moscow and St. Petersburg. It’s outrageous how we are dragging our feet with them as they are trying to stop the Russian onslaught. Russia is the hereditary enemy of the EU and the West; if we are not serious about defeating them, we should just admit it rather than being half-arsed about sending Ukraine aid

  5. After the fuck up that was the Budapest Memorandum where the Western powers all backtracked to saying… “No, no, those were just assurances, not guarantees”, of course Ukraine isn’t going to settle for the same thing. They *already* have signed assurances.

  6. No one is going to put their own country at a risk of war for Ukraine.

    We might not like it, but until we are sure that there wont be another war in the next several decades, such guarantee womt happen.

    Esit: like any large sub, the hive mind is incapable of critical thinking.

  7. Without security guarantees you can kiss any ceasefire goodbye. Ukraine won’t do a ceasefire in which they can be almost certain that Russia regroups and reinvades. They’d only do it if they knew that certain countries powerful enough to deter Russia would join the war and fight on Ukrainian soil.

  8. We’re not going to war for Ukraine.

    Ukraine can make all the demands it wants. But like NATO and EU membership, they simply have no leverage

  9. What guarantees if even NATO Article 5 it just “*assistance that member state deems necessary*”?

    In 2023 year, after 2 years of ethnocidial war with so careful/stabilizing/de-escalating (by Sullivan – bleeding Russia) assistance from the West (<1% of NATO weapon stocks supplies, and much less than 356 million dollars per day that USA 20 years spent on Afghanistan) it’s important not to create another nominal security guarantee, but:

    1. Fair and square confession that in 2014-2023 years International Law didn’t work on Russia because of effective WMD-blackmail and use of “WMD-Might make Right/True” logic.
    1. Solution of any problem begins from recognizing of its existence. And now West already 10 years avoid acknowledge of main problem, that only during latest 2 year caused so much new wars (Armenia/Azerbaijan), military coups (Burkina Faso, Niger, Gabon), attacks (Hamas, Yemen Iran proxy), occupations (Guyana) and so on.
    2. Some NATO or UN reform with key principle: “aggressive use of any WMD = automatic termination of all international treaties, including territorial ones, regarding attacker.”
    1. Security guards risk their lives for money. No money/motivator = no risk. The same and with any “security guarantees” related to WMD-risks. No adequate potential profits for risks = no motivation to fulfill defense contracts.
    2. Only something as “aggressive use of WMD = mad dog = free territory and resources for all countries of the World” logic, with good profitable motivator for anyone to comply to rules, could be an effective deterrent factor in modern reality. Not just another words and papers.

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