Brexit 2016: We will unleash the incredible potential of the UK and enter a new golden age.
Brexit 2023: We hope to narrow the gdp gap with Germany by 2038.
So the majority of people that set us on this course will be dead by then?
Damn the UK will be Europe’s biggest economy in 14 years.
That’s actually impressive.
The UK will be Europe’s best-performing major economy in the next 15 years, narrowing the gap with Germany and extending its lead over France, according to new long-run forecasts.
The Centre for Economics and Business Research predicted that GDP growth in the UK will settle between 1.6% and 1.8% in the period up until 2038, helping it retain its position as the world’s sixth-largest economy.
The forecasts published Tuesday predict that the UK will shake off an economic malaise lasting years that has been defined by Brexit and a string of shocks, including the pandemic and surging inflation.
Britain’s economy has been hampered by anemic productivity growth since the financial crisis with labor supply problems also emerging in recent years. It has led to the Bank of England to take a more pessimistic view on the UK’s growth prospects in the coming years.
Under CEBR’s long-run world economic rankings, the UK is expected to grow faster than all of the eurozone “big four” economies — France, Germany, Italy and Spain — but not as rapidly as the US.
“The fundamentals of the UK economy are still very much strong,” said Pushpin Singh, senior economist at CEBR. “London’s status as a financial and advisory services hub enduring, along with the wider strength of the services sector across the UK, will push UK growth.”
He said the economic impacts of Britain leaving the European Union have “either been exaggerated or have not been explored enough yet.”
The economics consultancy expects China to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy in 2037 with a doubling in world GDP being driven by developing economies catching up with their advanced peers.
By 2038, Italy will drop out of the world’s top 10 economies by size, replaced by South Korea. The US and Germany will slip down the rankings, while India and Brazil — two developing economies with large populations — will rise within the top 10.
France will underperform the UK particularly due to its large public sector and high tax levels, while Germany’s manufacturing slowdown will help Britain narrow the gap, according to Singh.
This probably has more to do with Germany’s population having barely changed while the UKs has risen by over 15% this century.
Trickle down economics people!! Any minute now we’ll see the effect and we’ll all be able to own house AND have out avo on toast!
Forecasts are just that. Given the current government is useless and the next useless set will tie us into the dying EU project again, I don’t see how any of the assumptions that created this forecast will come true.
This is a forecast might happen and might not, in 2038 and we just about to get in 2024 wondering what going to happen and not 2038.
That’s if Germany’s economy continues to underperform. Our services have always contributed heavily to the UK and its good to know they will continue to grow successfully even after they worried about brexit, but I wonder what will happen to our export buissnesses such as cheese makers, agricultural products and general goods. Just this week the telegraph and financial Times reported that British cheese exporters will no longer have favourable trade with Canada as our trade agreement expires and will have to trade on WTO terms, even after demand for British cheese jumped 10% in Canada. I worry about other similar agreements for other sectors expiring and not getting replaced.
I’m not surprised german manufacturing is beginning to decline with the rise of China and India, both having invested massively into this sector.
By my estimations, this is Labour coming to power in 2024, making a decent job of running the country and by 2038 we’re one of the most progressive counties in Europe again. The Tories win the 2039 election, and the downward spiral begins again.
GDP I could not give a fuck about. GDP Per Capita, I very much could.
GDP is deliberately chosen by manipulative individuals to make out Britain is doing better/is a bigger deal than it is in reality. Our GDP per capita is appalling compared to the majority of our peers.
To explain, GDP does not account for population, it means sweet f**k all to have a larger GDP than ‘insert country’ if your population is twice the size and as such requiring twice the amount of public services, social welfare etc etc.
Wow. Things might be a bit less shit in 14 years time. Get out the balloons everybody, it’s party time!
Forecasted economic growth relative to other countries is worthless when the standard of living for the majority is deteriorating, local governments are going bust, and major infrastructure jobs are mismanaged to the point of them even being beneficial anymore.
Now and then I see articles from Russia that are about the same, “Soon to catch up with German/US economy” …and they are about as believable.
Obviously just predictions but no more ridiculous then the numerous ‘doom’ forecasts that get posted regularly
This is a 15 year prediction? These economists don’t exactly have a decent track record of predictions over the last 15 years do they? What’s different this time?
All of this has the whiff of stopped clocks being right twice per day. Nobody can predict the randomness of modern economic trajectories. 9/11 taught us that decades ago and the Cold War and World War II before that. We’ve just had Ukraine and Gaza. How audacious and arrogant it is of anyone to forecast 15-year outcomes?
Go back to bed you blinkered twats.
> UK on course to become Europe’s biggest economy
This sub: this is a bad thing.
Like, you guys do know Germany has a larger economy right now? And this headline means the UK could catch up? Why are there several comments acting as if the opposite is happening?
That said, you can barely trust economic forecasts on a good day, and any after 5 years are so meaningless that it’s basically roulette.
The UK economy won’t survive the second Truss premiership.
Who gives a flying fuck when its not GDP per capita
I wonder how much of this is because of Brexit. I was 18 at the time and voted remain like pretty much everyone my age but upon reflection I do feel like leave was the right choice.
All the EU seems interested in is regulation, increasing taxes, stifling innovation etc. The UK still does too much of this but it’s definitely not at the EUs level and decreased immigration should stop wages being held back by endless cheap labour forcing countries to focus on improving productivity.
I can’t wait for things to be good when I’m in my mid forties…
What an amazing stat from the CEBR that totally validates Brexit, may we see how it was calculated?
No.
At least not until after it’s been widely reported and coverage dies down.
All projections like this are complete bullshit when long before then AI is going to completely change how the entire economy functions.
Meh, they can’t predict next year let alone a decade and a half.
So In line with Rees mogg stating we have to wait till 2050 or was it fifty years who knows to see the brexit benefits lol what a clown show
Haha, they can’t predict what is going to happen next year. Imagine in 15 years. Another Boris may become PM.
Import foriegners, line go up, GDP increase… while we crumble to dust.
Bla bla bla! UK bad! Brexit stupid! GDP not important! EU better!
You’re like a broken bloody record. Somehow any and all news on the UK is a disaster. Don’t you ever get tired of it…
Also in the article: “The UK economy is projected to be 20% larger than France by 2038. Today the gap is 10%. UK and France GDP were the same only 15 years ago”
Here’s another piece of disastrous news: The UK just became the first G20 country to halve its carbon emissions. I know, what a tragedy! The UK is so beyond saving at this point.
All jokes aside, what drives certain people to dislike themselves so much? This modern phenomenon of despising your own country, your ethnic group, religion, your culture. What’s going on? Why?
It seems to be the exclusive hobby of middle class white people across the world. Please enlighten me on what the heck is going on.
That’s not because Britain is doing well, it’s because Germany is doing badly.
However, they’ll sort themselves out in their usual practical, pragmatic way and their economy will be on track within 2 or 3 years.
Britain, on the other hand, will stumble on from self-inflicted crisis to self-inflicted crisis and probably drop out of the G20 …
Meanwhile GDP per capita is falling as the Tories deliver 700,000 net migration a year to destroy wage growth and inflate land values
What do we want? Mild improvements.
When do we want it? In 15 years… maybe.
I wonder what the GDP/capita will look like in comparison. Will it change at all?
32 comments
Brexit 2016: We will unleash the incredible potential of the UK and enter a new golden age.
Brexit 2023: We hope to narrow the gdp gap with Germany by 2038.
So the majority of people that set us on this course will be dead by then?
Damn the UK will be Europe’s biggest economy in 14 years.
That’s actually impressive.
The UK will be Europe’s best-performing major economy in the next 15 years, narrowing the gap with Germany and extending its lead over France, according to new long-run forecasts.
The Centre for Economics and Business Research predicted that GDP growth in the UK will settle between 1.6% and 1.8% in the period up until 2038, helping it retain its position as the world’s sixth-largest economy.
The forecasts published Tuesday predict that the UK will shake off an economic malaise lasting years that has been defined by Brexit and a string of shocks, including the pandemic and surging inflation.
Britain’s economy has been hampered by anemic productivity growth since the financial crisis with labor supply problems also emerging in recent years. It has led to the Bank of England to take a more pessimistic view on the UK’s growth prospects in the coming years.
Under CEBR’s long-run world economic rankings, the UK is expected to grow faster than all of the eurozone “big four” economies — France, Germany, Italy and Spain — but not as rapidly as the US.
“The fundamentals of the UK economy are still very much strong,” said Pushpin Singh, senior economist at CEBR. “London’s status as a financial and advisory services hub enduring, along with the wider strength of the services sector across the UK, will push UK growth.”
He said the economic impacts of Britain leaving the European Union have “either been exaggerated or have not been explored enough yet.”
The economics consultancy expects China to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy in 2037 with a doubling in world GDP being driven by developing economies catching up with their advanced peers.
By 2038, Italy will drop out of the world’s top 10 economies by size, replaced by South Korea. The US and Germany will slip down the rankings, while India and Brazil — two developing economies with large populations — will rise within the top 10.
France will underperform the UK particularly due to its large public sector and high tax levels, while Germany’s manufacturing slowdown will help Britain narrow the gap, according to Singh.
This probably has more to do with Germany’s population having barely changed while the UKs has risen by over 15% this century.
Trickle down economics people!! Any minute now we’ll see the effect and we’ll all be able to own house AND have out avo on toast!
Forecasts are just that. Given the current government is useless and the next useless set will tie us into the dying EU project again, I don’t see how any of the assumptions that created this forecast will come true.
This is a forecast might happen and might not, in 2038 and we just about to get in 2024 wondering what going to happen and not 2038.
That’s if Germany’s economy continues to underperform. Our services have always contributed heavily to the UK and its good to know they will continue to grow successfully even after they worried about brexit, but I wonder what will happen to our export buissnesses such as cheese makers, agricultural products and general goods. Just this week the telegraph and financial Times reported that British cheese exporters will no longer have favourable trade with Canada as our trade agreement expires and will have to trade on WTO terms, even after demand for British cheese jumped 10% in Canada. I worry about other similar agreements for other sectors expiring and not getting replaced.
I’m not surprised german manufacturing is beginning to decline with the rise of China and India, both having invested massively into this sector.
By my estimations, this is Labour coming to power in 2024, making a decent job of running the country and by 2038 we’re one of the most progressive counties in Europe again. The Tories win the 2039 election, and the downward spiral begins again.
GDP I could not give a fuck about. GDP Per Capita, I very much could.
GDP is deliberately chosen by manipulative individuals to make out Britain is doing better/is a bigger deal than it is in reality. Our GDP per capita is appalling compared to the majority of our peers.
To explain, GDP does not account for population, it means sweet f**k all to have a larger GDP than ‘insert country’ if your population is twice the size and as such requiring twice the amount of public services, social welfare etc etc.
Wow. Things might be a bit less shit in 14 years time. Get out the balloons everybody, it’s party time!
Forecasted economic growth relative to other countries is worthless when the standard of living for the majority is deteriorating, local governments are going bust, and major infrastructure jobs are mismanaged to the point of them even being beneficial anymore.
Now and then I see articles from Russia that are about the same, “Soon to catch up with German/US economy” …and they are about as believable.
Obviously just predictions but no more ridiculous then the numerous ‘doom’ forecasts that get posted regularly
This is a 15 year prediction? These economists don’t exactly have a decent track record of predictions over the last 15 years do they? What’s different this time?
All of this has the whiff of stopped clocks being right twice per day. Nobody can predict the randomness of modern economic trajectories. 9/11 taught us that decades ago and the Cold War and World War II before that. We’ve just had Ukraine and Gaza. How audacious and arrogant it is of anyone to forecast 15-year outcomes?
Go back to bed you blinkered twats.
> UK on course to become Europe’s biggest economy
This sub: this is a bad thing.
Like, you guys do know Germany has a larger economy right now? And this headline means the UK could catch up? Why are there several comments acting as if the opposite is happening?
That said, you can barely trust economic forecasts on a good day, and any after 5 years are so meaningless that it’s basically roulette.
The UK economy won’t survive the second Truss premiership.
Who gives a flying fuck when its not GDP per capita
I wonder how much of this is because of Brexit. I was 18 at the time and voted remain like pretty much everyone my age but upon reflection I do feel like leave was the right choice.
All the EU seems interested in is regulation, increasing taxes, stifling innovation etc. The UK still does too much of this but it’s definitely not at the EUs level and decreased immigration should stop wages being held back by endless cheap labour forcing countries to focus on improving productivity.
I can’t wait for things to be good when I’m in my mid forties…
What an amazing stat from the CEBR that totally validates Brexit, may we see how it was calculated?
No.
At least not until after it’s been widely reported and coverage dies down.
All projections like this are complete bullshit when long before then AI is going to completely change how the entire economy functions.
Meh, they can’t predict next year let alone a decade and a half.
So In line with Rees mogg stating we have to wait till 2050 or was it fifty years who knows to see the brexit benefits lol what a clown show
Haha, they can’t predict what is going to happen next year. Imagine in 15 years. Another Boris may become PM.
Import foriegners, line go up, GDP increase… while we crumble to dust.
Bla bla bla! UK bad! Brexit stupid! GDP not important! EU better!
You’re like a broken bloody record. Somehow any and all news on the UK is a disaster. Don’t you ever get tired of it…
Also in the article: “The UK economy is projected to be 20% larger than France by 2038. Today the gap is 10%. UK and France GDP were the same only 15 years ago”
Here’s another piece of disastrous news: The UK just became the first G20 country to halve its carbon emissions. I know, what a tragedy! The UK is so beyond saving at this point.
All jokes aside, what drives certain people to dislike themselves so much? This modern phenomenon of despising your own country, your ethnic group, religion, your culture. What’s going on? Why?
It seems to be the exclusive hobby of middle class white people across the world. Please enlighten me on what the heck is going on.
That’s not because Britain is doing well, it’s because Germany is doing badly.
However, they’ll sort themselves out in their usual practical, pragmatic way and their economy will be on track within 2 or 3 years.
Britain, on the other hand, will stumble on from self-inflicted crisis to self-inflicted crisis and probably drop out of the G20 …
Meanwhile GDP per capita is falling as the Tories deliver 700,000 net migration a year to destroy wage growth and inflate land values
What do we want? Mild improvements.
When do we want it? In 15 years… maybe.
I wonder what the GDP/capita will look like in comparison. Will it change at all?