IIRC it was between Christmas and New Years 2022 where we broke 100k Russian casualties. Russia had a run-rate of about 10 000 casualties/month in 2022.
Ukraine is reporting an additional ~259000 Russian casualties in 2023, which averages roughly 21 500 casualties/month in 2023.
If we want to look at approximate casualties against the Russian strategic goals for the same rough timeline:
Russia’s first 25 000 estimated casualties were lost trying to take the entire country of Ukraine in 3 weeks.
Russia’s next 25 000 estimated casualties were lost trying to take the entire Donetsk and Luhansk regions in 3 months.
Russia’s next 50 000 estimated casualties were lost trying to take Bakhmut – a city with a pre-war population of about 70 000 – in 9 months.
The *subsequent* 250 000 estimated Russian casualties were lost with the strategic goal of trying to capture Avdiivka – a town with a pre-war population of about 35 000, comparable to Homestead City Florida, and which happens to be a suburb of a city the Russians have held since 2014 and has been surrounded on 3 sides for a year and a half.
They have not yet succeeded in taking Avdiivka and we’ve already added another 9 000 estimated Russian casualties past those.
The degradation in capacity we are witnessing is astounding and accelerating – this is state failure happening in real time and unfortunately the Ukrainians are bearing the brunt of the death throes of the Russian Blyatspire.
Yes, things are rough on many parts of the front lines – largely because Ukraine’s western allies have failed to provide what is necessary in a timely manner. There are signs this is changing but let’s not count the chickens before they hatch. Be engaged politically, push your elected representatives to increase aid to Ukraine & accelerate deliveries. Most of the West’s military industrial complex was built to fight this very war just 2 000km further west, and we’ve spent literal trillions of dollars on equipment for this war over the last 70 years – sure lots of that equipment is scrapped, but a lot of it *isn’t*. Let the painter paint.
That said, every day the Russian military has to try harder to accomplish less, and that’s getting worse for them. The Kremlin is burning the furniture to keep what passes for the Russian economy propped up and various parts of their industry and transportation infrastructure is reaching the point where shit stops working faster than they can cobble together a fix that’s going to catch fire sooner or later. And that’s only getting worse. Sure India and China are buying more Urals crude – but they’re paying in rupees and yuan, not dollars or rubles. Which means Russia can’t even use that money to pay its own government payroll much less buy things India and China can’t provide.
The refined fuels export ban from the fall? That was so the Russian agricultural industry **could afford to borrow** enough money so that *this year’s* harvest doesn’t rot in the fields, and we might not know that it *didn’t* until summer or fall 2024 when a lot of potato and turnip storehouses around the world stop getting deliveries.
Shit is falling apart in Russia, and it’s only getting worse. We have all the tools we need to allow Ukraine victory on the battlefield and support the Ukrainian military and economy indefinitely if we need to. The Russian state is going to crack like an egg sooner or later one way or the other – the only question is how many Ukrainians are we going to allow to die due to being underequipped before that happens.
Good day for crippling their logistics
109 ground equipment destroyed, and 960 troops. Russian hardware and wetware bleeding out.
Been seeing less tanks being destroyed so I think the Russian’s may be trying to ease up a bit. As for artillery, I’m also kinda curious of how many they have left as well, as there still seems to be high rates of destruction for them.
11 comments
Happy New Years Eve, friends.
IIRC it was between Christmas and New Years 2022 where we broke 100k Russian casualties. Russia had a run-rate of about 10 000 casualties/month in 2022.
Ukraine is reporting an additional ~259000 Russian casualties in 2023, which averages roughly 21 500 casualties/month in 2023.
If we want to look at approximate casualties against the Russian strategic goals for the same rough timeline:
Russia’s first 25 000 estimated casualties were lost trying to take the entire country of Ukraine in 3 weeks.
Russia’s next 25 000 estimated casualties were lost trying to take the entire Donetsk and Luhansk regions in 3 months.
Russia’s next 50 000 estimated casualties were lost trying to take Bakhmut – a city with a pre-war population of about 70 000 – in 9 months.
The *subsequent* 250 000 estimated Russian casualties were lost with the strategic goal of trying to capture Avdiivka – a town with a pre-war population of about 35 000, comparable to Homestead City Florida, and which happens to be a suburb of a city the Russians have held since 2014 and has been surrounded on 3 sides for a year and a half.
They have not yet succeeded in taking Avdiivka and we’ve already added another 9 000 estimated Russian casualties past those.
The degradation in capacity we are witnessing is astounding and accelerating – this is state failure happening in real time and unfortunately the Ukrainians are bearing the brunt of the death throes of the Russian Blyatspire.
Yes, things are rough on many parts of the front lines – largely because Ukraine’s western allies have failed to provide what is necessary in a timely manner. There are signs this is changing but let’s not count the chickens before they hatch. Be engaged politically, push your elected representatives to increase aid to Ukraine & accelerate deliveries. Most of the West’s military industrial complex was built to fight this very war just 2 000km further west, and we’ve spent literal trillions of dollars on equipment for this war over the last 70 years – sure lots of that equipment is scrapped, but a lot of it *isn’t*. Let the painter paint.
That said, every day the Russian military has to try harder to accomplish less, and that’s getting worse for them. The Kremlin is burning the furniture to keep what passes for the Russian economy propped up and various parts of their industry and transportation infrastructure is reaching the point where shit stops working faster than they can cobble together a fix that’s going to catch fire sooner or later. And that’s only getting worse. Sure India and China are buying more Urals crude – but they’re paying in rupees and yuan, not dollars or rubles. Which means Russia can’t even use that money to pay its own government payroll much less buy things India and China can’t provide.
The refined fuels export ban from the fall? That was so the Russian agricultural industry **could afford to borrow** enough money so that *this year’s* harvest doesn’t rot in the fields, and we might not know that it *didn’t* until summer or fall 2024 when a lot of potato and turnip storehouses around the world stop getting deliveries.
Shit is falling apart in Russia, and it’s only getting worse. We have all the tools we need to allow Ukraine victory on the battlefield and support the Ukrainian military and economy indefinitely if we need to. The Russian state is going to crack like an egg sooner or later one way or the other – the only question is how many Ukrainians are we going to allow to die due to being underequipped before that happens.
Good day for crippling their logistics
109 ground equipment destroyed, and 960 troops. Russian hardware and wetware bleeding out.
Been seeing less tanks being destroyed so I think the Russian’s may be trying to ease up a bit. As for artillery, I’m also kinda curious of how many they have left as well, as there still seems to be high rates of destruction for them.
Thank you 🇺🇦!
Well done UA
Happy New Year.
[Today’s statistics](https://www.reddit.com/r/RussianLosses/comments/18v0yaw/estimated_russian_losses_from_24022022_to/)
360k probably tomorrow, on new year’s.
Slava Ukraini
🇺🇦 🇺🇲
Let’s keep the supplies and $$$ rolling in to Ukraine, and see if we can double our foreign aid in 2024! 🇺🇦❤️🇺🇦
Slava Ukraini! 🇺🇦
Keep pounding them ruski orcs into dirt.