Ukraine war: What to expect in 2024 | DW News

Ukraine war: What to expect in 2024 | DW News

Russia has launched a fresh barrage of strikes on Ukraine targeting the Capitol keev and inflicting damage on residential areas of the country’s second larger City hak it comes after more than 20 people were killed in a Ukrainian attack on the Russian city of belgrod an attack that Moscow said would not go

Unpunished in central har Ukrainian emergency crews respond to heavy shelling in the hours leading to New Year’s Eve they say Russian forces struck here at least six times injuring over a dozen people and damaging several apartment buildings one of the residents Arena survived with minor injuries this is our new

Year what a present they gave us for this new year they have black Souls simply black Souls they bomb residential areas there are people here how can one do such a thing the strikes in K are only the latest of over 100 missiles that rained down on Ukrainian cities in the last few

Days Ukraine has descried Des cribed it as the largest aerial assault since the start of the war nearly 2 years ago another strike is a nursery and completely destroyed it the residential buildings surrounding it sustained heavy damage from the blast of the explosion to Russia meanwhile has accused Ukraine

Of shelling a residential area in the city of belgar Rod just 30 km from the Ukrainian border that strike Russia says killed over 20 people and wounded over a 100 the strike against Russia came one day after its large-scale aerial attack Ukraine has an officially claimed responsibility but president volodimir

Zalinski warned Moscow would be held responsible for its intensified strikes all throughout the day today there have been reports on the aftermath of the Russian strikes in total more than 120 cities and villages in Ukraine suffered from yesterday’s Russian attack alone 39 people were killed for all the strikes on Odessa sui

And keev for every shahad drone for every Russian missile the terrorist state will bear responsibility both in a political and also practical sense both sides have reported an increase in attacks in the last week of 2023 leaving many in fear of what the new year will have in store for

Them well for more I’m joined Now by our correspondent Sonia Fela Sonia tell us more about those attacks overnight including on keev where you Are well um the mayor of karke I I’ll start with Kari um Ukraine’s second largest city uh he said that you know um Ukraine uh Russia la lach a drone attack in the early hours of the morning in downtown Kar and that came just hours after a previous attack involving

Authorities say six missile strikes uh that you know damaged civilian infrastructure uh the mayor says it damaged shops and a medical facility one of the city’s most popular hotels was targeted as well this is a hotel that is often used by Foreign journalists uh videos on social media show a massive

Gaping hole in the facade of this hotel more than 25 people are said to be injured and here in ke the the regional Administration uh has said that you know air defenses in the region have been engaged in repelling another wave of Russian drone attacks residents on social media have been reporting loud

Explosions in the city uh this morning and of course this comes as the Deb toll in keev from that from what Ukraine says is Russia’s largest aerial assault uh this week that Deb toll has gone up um the mayor says uh 18 people are now confirmed dead there is a rescue

Operation still going on in the city at the site of a factory in in in the center of the city uh where which which is faired to have taken a direct Missile hit uh and the mayor here uh Vitali Klitschko uh says this is the deadliest attack so far for civilians in the

Capital Sonia this past week has been especially intense in terms of air attacks from both sides why the sudden increase in intensity well I think Ukrainian officials have been Racing for weeks to for Moscow to kind of Step Up attacks leading into the new year as it did uh

Last year they’ve been also warning for months that you know uh Russia has been building up a missile stockpile that it’s planning to use in winter but of course the scale and intensity of these attacks across Ukraine this week has come as a shock um the Ukrainian media

Says uh the attacks on belgaro the Russian Border City of belgaro was Ukraine’s answer to these attacks and so analysts here are saying it shows that you know both sides are willing to escalate but above all it shows that you know ke is determined to take the war

Now closer Home to Moscow and shatter you know a sense of stability and normaly that prevails there despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine we’ve heard from president zalinsky who said Ukraine will continue to work to push the war back from where it came from back to Russia and I think the scenes of

Destruction and death that we saw in Bel gorad this week are you know kind of signs of that DW Sonia FICA in ke thank you for more I’m now joined by Frank ledwidge Military analyst and former British Military Intelligence officer good to see you again um why do you you

Think that we’ve seen both Russia and Ukraine increase their attacks in the last week of 2023 well good morning CLA concerning the Ukrainian attacks on belgar Rod what the ukrainians say is that civilian casualties were caused by Russian anti-aircraft missiles crashing which seems not unlikely but uh it’s clear

Also that maybe a retry element there as to the more as to the situation more widely I don’t think any of this is surprise we were expecting a Russian uh assault using their Consolidated and acude weaponry or Weaponry ACR over the last few months we’re going to see more

Of these missile assaults over the next few days as well I would assess and not only me uh the the Russians want to to start their new year as they wish to go on uh and the main objective of this is to deplete Ukraine’s air defenses with a

Subsidiary objective I suspect same as last year of undermining the morale of civilians in both of which I think these will fail West’s very determined to make sure that Ukraine does not uh isn’t vulnerable due to lack of air defense so uh that’s that’s what’s going to happen

I suspect and those are the reasons I’m curious what you can tell us about this fighting we’ve been hearing about in the East especially uh these battles in and around abva what is your take on on which side there has the upper hand there’s clearly no Panic on the

Ukrainians side the Russians are making incremental advances not just there actually all over the front but we’re talking here 100 meters here 100 meters there the ukrainians are holding concerning uh abka itself look the reason the Russians are particularly set on here is because it’s the last uh it’s

The last location from which Ukraine can shell denet it’s been a running SAR and embarrassment now for about seven or well nearly eight years since Ukraine has held it they are making uh they are cutting into Ukrainian Salient what what we have here is a Salient this town is

Surrounded on three sides it’s a similar situation CLA to bahmut earlier this year and the question will be how much is Ukraine willing to invest in holding on to this place there would be a political cost in losing it but also a casualty cost too and of course they

Have to weigh that in an nutritional war against the casualties that are huge casualties actually they’re imposing on Russians uh assaulting it now Frank just before just before I let you go I I do want to jump in um because we looking ahead to 2024 and and the new year and

I’m curious what your expectations are for what that might bring do you think it could be the year that we see some kind of negotiations I don’t think so I don’t think there’s there’s there incentives on either side from the Ukrainian perspective their objective is to hold

On to consolidate to start to build their industrial and weapons base uh and uh to consolidate those front lines to build and sustain fortifications and to rebuild and uh rebuild build their armed forces from the Russian perspective they will continue uh on the assault they will fail I think to make any particular

Gains we’re looking here as a sort of first world war sort of positional uh situation there uh all along the line and indeed um more widely politically too no there’s no incentive look the ukrainians will not seed land they cannot trust the Russians from the Russian perspective they will

Be content to engage Ukraine going forward it fulfill their political objectives too the key question of course is the extent to which the West will continue to support Ukraine and by that we’re talking about the United States not just this year but going forward well thank you very much as

Always that is military analyst Frank ledwitch thank you CLA

Russia launched launched a fresh barrage of strikes on Ukraine, targeting the capital Kyiv and inflicting damage on residential areas of the country’s second largest city Kharkiv. In the last hour, Russia’s defense minister has said that the attack on Kharkiv was in retaliation for Ukraine’s bombardment of the Russian city of Belgorod a day earlier.

00:00 Intro and report
03:10 DW’s Sonia Phalnikar reports from Kyiv
05:52 Analysis from military expert Frank Ledwidge

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