Recession deniers are making the same mistake as during the dot-com and housing bubbles, top economist David Rosenberg says
by FUSeekMe69
Recession deniers are making the same mistake as during the dot-com and housing bubbles, top economist David Rosenberg says
by FUSeekMe69
11 comments
It’s not a mistake though. Biden sycophants are deliberately misrepresenting the state of the economy. Some of them are getting to be almost as bad as the Trumpers.
People are denying a recession because… there’s absolutely no recession, or signs of one. Economic growth, consumer spending, wages and the job market are as strong as they’ve ever been. Economists relying on the old rules of thumb got it completely wrong.
David Rosenberg has been calling for a recession every year for the last 80 years.
Yep. Great point.
I was thinking in the back of my mind that all this rhetoric resembled ‘something’ but this opinion crystallizes it for me.
I don’t know if he’s a ‘top economist,’ because you don’t need to appeal to authority to make that very valid point.
What freaking recession? Seriously? Has anyone here even experienced a real recession or just whine about the cost of gas and all the sudden the economy is on brink of collapse. The pearl clutching is strong here.
Lol here’s the same from 2019
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/02/a-recession-is-virtually-unavoidable-this-year-david-rosenberg-warns.html
And he was dead wrong
top economist my ass. bro doesn’t even have a wikipedia page.
There is no chance of recession in 2024, just like there was no recession in 2022 and 2023. I’m so tired of people calling for a recession every year.
When it happens it happens
This is too easy. This dude called for a recession over a year age. He said ” the S&P 500 would lose over 30% in 2023 and bottom near 2,900. This was on February 11, 2023 when the S&P was at 4,000. It ended the year at 4,783.
This dude has called 18 of the last 2 recessions.
[https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-strategist-david-rosenberg-wait-until-2024-to-turn-bullish-on-u-s-stocks-after-the-s-p-500-drops-30-from-here-11675711832](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-strategist-david-rosenberg-wait-until-2024-to-turn-bullish-on-u-s-stocks-after-the-s-p-500-drops-30-from-here-11675711832)
Honestly, this isn’t a terrible article. However:
> While Rosenberg is known for calling the collapse of the mid-2000s housing bubble, he’s been warning of a crash and a recession for a long time now, and both markets and the economy have defied his predictions to date.
So yeah, there’s that. But, I think he is at least making some of the better bearish arguments, here. Similar to those I pointed out [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/18in1he/what_exactly_is_the_bear_case_for_a_possible/kdefsm5/).
I’m still not nearly as bearish, putting the odds of recession only at maybe 1/3 in the next year. But for anyone relying on simple common indicators, well lots of them do suggest a recession in the next year. So it’s an argument that is worth paying some attention to.
And the argument for why these metrics might fail I think ends up being a little more subtle, speculative, and less precise. So maybe some reason to be suspicious of it. But I’ll try:
1. Fiscal policy remains aggressively expansionary. This may have some negative longer term consequences, but isn’t likely to have much impact on short to intermediate movements of markets, apart from the ways it impacts what is needed from monetary policy. And a significant correction of this fiscal irresponsibility isn’t likely to occur in an election year.
2. If fiscal policy is inappropriately stimulative for current conditions, than monetary policy may also need to remain unusually tight to offset that, if we are to obtain the kind of equilibrium that the soft landing with no recession scenario requires. So rather than the yield curve normalization that many are anticipating, the soft landing scenario may require a mild yield curve inversion to still persist over the next couple of years. The Fed may only need to cut to say….4.5%, to hit the Goldilocks scenario.
3. A lot of the more bearish case at this point seems to depend on long policy lags, that the impacts of tightening haven’t yet fully been felt. But I think there is at least some reason to believe that the increased transparency of the Fed in recent years would tend to shorten lags. I still expect some continued impact through the first half of 2024, but coming off 4.9% real GDP in Q3, and with GDP Now for Q4 still a reasonable 2%, it just doesn’t seem clear this will amount to enough of a slowdown to meet NBER recession criteria.