I appreciate the optimism in the article, but it makes no mention of the stalled aid from allies, including the stalled F-16s. It will take more than unconventional warfare to actually drive Russia out.
In order for Ukraine to be victorious they need to penetrate the Russian defence and exploit past their defence in depth. Modern warfare favours the defenders, as the Russians have learnt with their disproportional losses attacking Ukraine.
This means clearing and maintaining sufficient clear pathways through minefields and defensive obstacles that are covered by direct fire and observation by people and drones, for artillery, and more specifically artillery deployed mines that can close gaps that have been cleared. This is a Hercularian task.
Combat engineering equipment (such as mine clearing tanks) has not been up to the task, and despite heroic effort when a breach is created it is quickly closed.
Doctrinally this would have been done with tactical nuclear weapons, which aren’t an option in this conflict.
This means Ukraine needs to either investigate historic solutions from World War I such as mining (tunnelling) massive distances or try other options such as MOAB or fuel air bombs blasting multiple channels through the Russian defences.
Slava Ukraine!
This article hints at stuff that is undoubtedly going on behind closed doors. Wargaming, simulations etc, strategies to use their equipment, getting ready for the next round.
I hope Russia is sticking to the only thing it knows, throwing bodies at the front lines and doesn’t have the structure and capability to do something new.
4 comments
No paywall:
https://archive.ph/2024.01.08-115720/https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/08/ukraine-russia-war-victory-stalemate-strategy-weapons-congress-aid/
I appreciate the optimism in the article, but it makes no mention of the stalled aid from allies, including the stalled F-16s. It will take more than unconventional warfare to actually drive Russia out.
In order for Ukraine to be victorious they need to penetrate the Russian defence and exploit past their defence in depth. Modern warfare favours the defenders, as the Russians have learnt with their disproportional losses attacking Ukraine.
This means clearing and maintaining sufficient clear pathways through minefields and defensive obstacles that are covered by direct fire and observation by people and drones, for artillery, and more specifically artillery deployed mines that can close gaps that have been cleared. This is a Hercularian task.
Combat engineering equipment (such as mine clearing tanks) has not been up to the task, and despite heroic effort when a breach is created it is quickly closed.
Doctrinally this would have been done with tactical nuclear weapons, which aren’t an option in this conflict.
This means Ukraine needs to either investigate historic solutions from World War I such as mining (tunnelling) massive distances or try other options such as MOAB or fuel air bombs blasting multiple channels through the Russian defences.
Slava Ukraine!
This article hints at stuff that is undoubtedly going on behind closed doors. Wargaming, simulations etc, strategies to use their equipment, getting ready for the next round.
I hope Russia is sticking to the only thing it knows, throwing bodies at the front lines and doesn’t have the structure and capability to do something new.