The article is written in Ukrainian – I used the browser’s built-in translator to read it.
More than people thought at first.
5?
‘At the studied bases there are also sheds and boxes, the capacity of which is estimated at 1950 vehicles. However, some of these premises should be allocated for repairs, and some are probably occupied not by tanks, but by other vehicles. Taking into account the above, the number of tanks in storage can be estimated at a maximum of 7 thousand, but probably about 6 thousand.’
Those sheds werent taken into account in previous analyses of others.
Doesn’t matter considering their drones and artillery are the real major threats.
google translate:
How many tanks are left in Russia? A question that comes up very often in discussions, and to which it is simply impossible to find an exact answer – probably even Shoigu and Gerasimov do not know it. However, attempts to count tanks do not stop. Today we will analyze one of them – the report of the French OSINT cell ARI, published on August 31, 2023.
The French tried to figure out how many tanks the Russians have at storage bases. It must be said that the numbers here are very “jumping” – for example, the International Institute for Strategic Studies estimated this number in 2022 at as many as 17.5 thousand tanks, including 200 T-90, 3 thousand T-80, 7 thousand T- 72, 2 thousand T-64, 2.5 thousand T-62 and 2.8 thousand T-55. However, these calculations are very inaccurate, because they are based on the estimate of the number of tanks produced during the USSR.
Estimates from last year’s Military Balance yearbook are much more modest: approximately 2,000 tanks in service and up to 5,000 in storage. However, its authors take into account models from the T-62 and higher – but in reality, the foot-footed not only have hundreds of T-54/55 in warehouses, but are already using them at the front! It is interesting that in 2022, Military Balance wrote about as many as 13.7 thousand Russian tanks, but even in this case it did not count the T-54/55.
In their calculations, ARI specialists used satellite images taken between April and September 2021. They were supplemented with information from social networks. Calculations were made for ten central storage bases out of 22 available in the Russian Federation – they are the ones where, according to estimates, 95% of tanks are concentrated.
So, what did you manage to calculate? 5,538 tanks, of which 4,347 are identified by type. It is clear that we are talking about tanks that are stored under the open sky. There are also canopies and boxes at the researched bases, the capacity of which is estimated at 1,950 cars. However, part of these premises must be allocated for repairs, and part is probably occupied not by tanks, but by other machines. Taking into account the above, the number of tanks in storage can be estimated at a maximum of 7,000, but probably around 6,000.
What types have been identified? These are 750 T-80 tanks (mainly BV and UD versions), 1,945 T-72 (mostly non-modernized T-72B, as well as T-72A and T-72), 1,239 T-62 (including many T -62M) and 413 T-54/55. Three quarters of them are tanks produced before 1980. The situation with the T-64 is a bit unclear – the French write that they did not count them, because due to a lack of spare parts, these tanks will not be able to be returned to service. There are no T-90s either – although there should be some amount of them at the storage bases, after all. Maybe they were counted together with the T-72?
The breakdown of types of tanks by district is also interesting. In the Western Military District, these are T-80U/UE-1, T-80BV, T-80UD and T-72. In Central – older T-72 and remnants of T-64. In the East – some T-80, the bulk of T-62, as well as T-54/55.
… more in comment below
Based on the translation provided in the comments, here is the money quote:
​
>[A]ccording to ARI experts, the only option for the development of events in 2024 for the Russian Federation is ***only prolonged stagnation*** at the front. This ***will make it possible to form a powerful tank fist*** – taking into account the prospects of increasing the annual output of T-90M at Uralvagonzavod to 250-300 machines and plans to resume production of T-80 at Omsktransmash.
(My emphasis added.)
In other words… what the Kremlin knows, and Ukraine and its allies can guess from this kind of analysis, is that what Russia most desperately needs is a prolonged period of no action on the front — a cease-fire — and if given this will promptly use the opportunity to build up a significant armored corps to hopefully break Ukrainian lines and regain the initiative.
Hence they are pulling out all the stops to try and achieve that. Convince Ukraine’s allies that Ukraine cannot win. Convince Ukraine that their allies have given up on them. Convince Jewish groups that Ukraine is run by Nazis. Convince Nazis that Ukraine is run by the Jews. Convince “reasonable people” that Ukraine is unreasonable. And convince everyone that a cease-fire is just such a reasonable, normal thing for anyone to want in a situation like this.
Lots of halfsies?
With current lines at a stalemate and drones and atgms still flowing in in huge numbers, it’s a question of time. It can take 1, 2 or 3 years. But, Russia will drain them all. And lose them all.
Tanks don’t matter much in this war. It’s men and missiles and air power. Also if Trump wins and stops any money to Ukraine. It’s over for Ukraine — I hope they win, but it comes down to the US election now.
11 comments
The article is written in Ukrainian – I used the browser’s built-in translator to read it.
More than people thought at first.
5?
‘At the studied bases there are also sheds and boxes, the capacity of which is estimated at 1950 vehicles. However, some of these premises should be allocated for repairs, and some are probably occupied not by tanks, but by other vehicles. Taking into account the above, the number of tanks in storage can be estimated at a maximum of 7 thousand, but probably about 6 thousand.’
Those sheds werent taken into account in previous analyses of others.
Doesn’t matter considering their drones and artillery are the real major threats.
google translate:
How many tanks are left in Russia? A question that comes up very often in discussions, and to which it is simply impossible to find an exact answer – probably even Shoigu and Gerasimov do not know it. However, attempts to count tanks do not stop. Today we will analyze one of them – the report of the French OSINT cell ARI, published on August 31, 2023.
The French tried to figure out how many tanks the Russians have at storage bases. It must be said that the numbers here are very “jumping” – for example, the International Institute for Strategic Studies estimated this number in 2022 at as many as 17.5 thousand tanks, including 200 T-90, 3 thousand T-80, 7 thousand T- 72, 2 thousand T-64, 2.5 thousand T-62 and 2.8 thousand T-55. However, these calculations are very inaccurate, because they are based on the estimate of the number of tanks produced during the USSR.
Estimates from last year’s Military Balance yearbook are much more modest: approximately 2,000 tanks in service and up to 5,000 in storage. However, its authors take into account models from the T-62 and higher – but in reality, the foot-footed not only have hundreds of T-54/55 in warehouses, but are already using them at the front! It is interesting that in 2022, Military Balance wrote about as many as 13.7 thousand Russian tanks, but even in this case it did not count the T-54/55.
In their calculations, ARI specialists used satellite images taken between April and September 2021. They were supplemented with information from social networks. Calculations were made for ten central storage bases out of 22 available in the Russian Federation – they are the ones where, according to estimates, 95% of tanks are concentrated.
So, what did you manage to calculate? 5,538 tanks, of which 4,347 are identified by type. It is clear that we are talking about tanks that are stored under the open sky. There are also canopies and boxes at the researched bases, the capacity of which is estimated at 1,950 cars. However, part of these premises must be allocated for repairs, and part is probably occupied not by tanks, but by other machines. Taking into account the above, the number of tanks in storage can be estimated at a maximum of 7,000, but probably around 6,000.
What types have been identified? These are 750 T-80 tanks (mainly BV and UD versions), 1,945 T-72 (mostly non-modernized T-72B, as well as T-72A and T-72), 1,239 T-62 (including many T -62M) and 413 T-54/55. Three quarters of them are tanks produced before 1980. The situation with the T-64 is a bit unclear – the French write that they did not count them, because due to a lack of spare parts, these tanks will not be able to be returned to service. There are no T-90s either – although there should be some amount of them at the storage bases, after all. Maybe they were counted together with the T-72?
The breakdown of types of tanks by district is also interesting. In the Western Military District, these are T-80U/UE-1, T-80BV, T-80UD and T-72. In Central – older T-72 and remnants of T-64. In the East – some T-80, the bulk of T-62, as well as T-54/55.
… more in comment below
Based on the translation provided in the comments, here is the money quote:
​
>[A]ccording to ARI experts, the only option for the development of events in 2024 for the Russian Federation is ***only prolonged stagnation*** at the front. This ***will make it possible to form a powerful tank fist*** – taking into account the prospects of increasing the annual output of T-90M at Uralvagonzavod to 250-300 machines and plans to resume production of T-80 at Omsktransmash.
(My emphasis added.)
In other words… what the Kremlin knows, and Ukraine and its allies can guess from this kind of analysis, is that what Russia most desperately needs is a prolonged period of no action on the front — a cease-fire — and if given this will promptly use the opportunity to build up a significant armored corps to hopefully break Ukrainian lines and regain the initiative.
Hence they are pulling out all the stops to try and achieve that. Convince Ukraine’s allies that Ukraine cannot win. Convince Ukraine that their allies have given up on them. Convince Jewish groups that Ukraine is run by Nazis. Convince Nazis that Ukraine is run by the Jews. Convince “reasonable people” that Ukraine is unreasonable. And convince everyone that a cease-fire is just such a reasonable, normal thing for anyone to want in a situation like this.
Lots of halfsies?
With current lines at a stalemate and drones and atgms still flowing in in huge numbers, it’s a question of time. It can take 1, 2 or 3 years. But, Russia will drain them all. And lose them all.
Tanks don’t matter much in this war. It’s men and missiles and air power. Also if Trump wins and stops any money to Ukraine. It’s over for Ukraine — I hope they win, but it comes down to the US election now.
My Russian is a little rusty…like these tanks