Russia Tapping Out In Ochertyne!

Russia Tapping Out In Ochertyne!

the Russian attack near Ultra ratina is coming to an end but is Russia pivoting to their next Target and is Ukraine admitting that it’s got a tough fight ahead I’m Paul US Army Combat veteran let’s get into it okay first off taking a look at the control map there have been uh really one significant change to the battlefield and that is outside of ultra datina here and you can see that Russian forces flanking in around this Salient here in an effort to seize the last little part of ultra datina now what I think this is a sign that this battle is culminating because you’re seeing in Russia has been expanding this breakthrough trying to get us deep into Ukrainian territory as they can also expanding here near AR Aran hesk and you notice that as we’ve talked about Ukrainian forces seem to be conducting a controlled withdrawal behind this line here near Calia Nova uh where they’ve got a defensive uh system of reservoirs and canals as well as favorable High Ground terrain and Russia likely wanted to try to flank around this right to try to occupy this area trapping the ukrainians in the low ground but you can see in the last 24 hours the Russians have been stuck here near side outside Novo Leandria and in an effort they seem to be beginning there in encirclement and the reason this is interesting is because Soviet Doctrine loves encirclements right they love to encircle an area but it’s like you taking a bite of a uh an apple or a slice of pizza right The Wider you open your mouth the bigger a bite you can take and so at some point you go listen we’ve got our the mouth of our encirclement as wide as we’re going to get it and so it’s time to take the bite and you can see here that while Russ likely hoped to be able to cross this river system in two places right seizing aranes and gulping down sort of this larger area instead you see that they’ve accepted that they’re going to have to just enclose in on just the town of ultra datina they don’t even right now appear to have Arcane hesk so I think what we’re going to see is obviously Russia complete this circle Ukraine say listen we’re not defending this you will probably see Ukrainian forces withdraw across this River here and yield Aran heski to Russia uh but that’s going to be all that Russia can do right they’ve been frozen for a while here outside solo voova uh as we’ve talked about Ukrainian forces again really pra prepared to punish Russians if they try to emerge from any of these constructed builtup urban areas when if youve if you’ve seen any of the footage this week that we’ve posted on combat vet news um which by the way if you hav’t you should absolutely check it out um this is the way to support the channel you know I don’t get that many sponsors I don’t get uh I get demonetized pretty routinely and so if you want to support what I do keep me able to do this every single day um any one of these tiers membership tiers is going to get you access and it’s the best way to support the channel twice a week I take the combat footage from the front lines and we do a deep dive analysis right and it’s for members only uh so what I would say is when looked at the videos we saw that while Ukrainian forces definitely had a harder time digging Russians out of some of these builtup areas when Russian forces went into open terrain man it was like a shooting gallery uh between drones artillery and Mining uh Russians really struggle to cross open terrain right where Ukrainian forces can see them coming literally from miles away so that has sort of contained this Southwestern flank here uh Le just the northern flank but you can see that that we haven’t seen much movement here at this uh North Northwestern flank right it looks like Ukrainian forces in Nova Leandria are mounting an effective defense against uh what looks like I think this is the 35th motor rifle Brigade um but again makes sense because they’re trying to cross open terrain so the last option the last place that Russia can sort of put its offensive efforts is here completing this encirclement around the the the wing the the the suburb of ult datina and then possibly they’ll push into Aran ales and Ukrainian forces will uh build their defensive line on the far side of this River and Canal system and that’ll be that right uh which is huge right it means that this Russian breakthrough is contained uh but this doesn’t mean that the Russians are just going to roll over right they have more plans and both Ukrainian intelligence officials have uh publicly identified three Russian sort of lines of effort uh military and non-military um and both Ukrainian and US intelligence officials have publicly said this is about the the reality that ukrainians are correct on this assessment uh the first is that Russian forces are focused on CHF Yar but probably are not going to be able to seize major cities you may recall ch Y is the uh town or I gu this is a town it might it might be a stretch to call it a city um out it’s uh Due West of bachet and it’s something that Ukraine or Russian forces really have wanted to take uh to give Putin this symbolic Victory um for May 9th the Russian Victory Day parade and uh going into a key meeting with Beijing right Putin wants to be able to put show xiin ping some good news to prove that China is backing a a a winner so to speak uh a country with a real chance of winning the conflict but um but let’s see the population of chavar yeah it’s definitely not a city chavar has 12,000 people in it not a city very small um really just not uh not anything more than like a village uh and so Russia though the terrain is really going to be tough forested area uh a lot of of of uh water obstacles kind of canalyzing forces but we know that Russia builtup forested areas tend to be the areas where Russian Forces fight the best and it’s one of the reasons why I think um that Russian or excuse me Ukrainian uh intelligence is assessing that Russian forces have the best opportunity to make uh significant gains in chivar um Ukraine itself is even assessing quote it’s probably a matter of time before chavar Falls but Russian forces aren’t going to seize the town quote today or tomorrow um Russian forces of course they’re saying have only achieved tactical success near a divka uh but isw says that Russian Force is not making any operation Al significant gains um just sort of a tactical breakthrough and I think this is probably accurate I think we can say that now um again the towns like Tina uh Aran heleski Nova Leandria these are not major towns these are not major routes um again you look at places like uh you know even have divka right an area with some significant heavy industry um you know even that was not that large a town in the grand scheme of things uh you know CH if y not that big the nearest cities right is places like har uh you could see it here that was actually never really occupied umia uh nepro right these are like actual cities right you see here there’s there’s actual like like a downtown I mean this is a city right um zap right like like this is a city city right you zoom in you see you’re like okay it’s home to tens of thousands hundreds of thousands of people um there’s not really that much here right you’ve got these towns poovi right like what’s that a few thousand people you’re not really Russia just is is going to have a hard time finding really operationally significant places to fight right it took seiro denet uh unless chonk right this these were cities that were contested um but now it’s just a lot of open terrain that they’ve got to push their way through um and it’s it’s a tall order and and you know for Russia other than just a war of attrition it’s not clear on what exactly they’re going to do but uh the uh Ukrainian intelligence is out here saying that Russian forces currently have about 35,000 Personnel uh right on the Russia Ukraine border probably they want to concentrate 50,000 to 70,000 Personnel for a big har push but will that culminate in any kind of major gains Ukraine’s assessing no and I think this is accurate because we’ve seen that Russian attacks a large scale attack takes a long time to gather those forces and in that same time Ukraine is going to prepare defenses and you know if you know where the forces are are gathering you can infer where they’re going right like there’s only a couple of places that you could put 50,000 people uh pull up the map here uh and if you know they’re going to try to take let’s say you know if they’re going to try to take kke there’s only a couple of routes that are big enough that you can move 50,000 folks across them one is pretty much this one uh you can look I mean you see the terrain that I do here right in fact there’s basically there’s like two uh this one here uh right there’s just a handful of of really developed roads that can allow 50,000 to 70,000 people to cross them so it’s obvious to Ukraine where they need to put their forces and that’s kind of the problem with large scale attacks in this environment is that they just take a long time and it’s pretty easy to counter um but what I thought was interesting is that yeah you’ve got the second line of effort is actually by Russia is actually information operations and the two are undermining Ukrainian mobilization and questioning the legitimacy of president zalinski now Russia has pointed out that under martial law uh the Ukrainian Constitution allows the president to say Hey listen we’ve got to suspend elections while we are in the depths of a of a serious War right for obvious reasons right how can you hold an election oh when when the the like there’s disputing control of your territory right and how could you even hold an election if say um Russia has the ability to influence that election right again hacking it stuffing ballots like like Russia itself can definitely try to disrupt an election so zinsky said listen the Constitution allows me to suspend elections that’s what we’re going to do well Russia is arguing is going to try to spin that zalinski has actually uh like seized power in a coup and that um starting May 21st uh zalinski will no longer be a legitimate president but again if the Constitution says you can do it then you can do it that’s how the Constitutions that’s how a constitution works so it’s kind of insane but that’s the the the Russian propaganda machine is ramping up you’re going to see it in the comments here of this video you’re going to see it in the comments probably going forward about the illegitimate zalinsky um right but of course there’s also going to be information uh operations in in the west right um and this is a campaign to diplomatically isolate Ukraine from its allies um and that is part influencing us here in the United States and in Europe to convince the public and politicians that supporting Ukraine is a dangerous waste of money uh again I point out because us is spending 3% of it GDP uh on Ukrainian Aid onet of its or 5% of its Total Defense budget um Ukraine right if you look up Russia spending UK in Ukraine as a percentage of GDP uh let’s see if we can find this for old Russia um yeah let’s see here we go here we go here’s Stockholm International Peace Institute from last month April late April 2024 uh right Russia increasing Russia’s military spending increasing 24% in the previous year uh 57% rise in 2014 um and 16% of all government spending uh and as a percent of GDP was nearly 6% and Rising so this year we’re probably going to look at about 8% would be my guess um and given that it’s got you know again Russia is spending about 8% of its total GDP uh and they are terrified when the United States spends 32% of its GDP on uh supporting Ukraine so just keep those numbers in mind when someone tries to tell you it’s too expensive or we can’t afford it uh it’s for something we can’t afford it’s bizarre that Russia can afford something with uh what’s that 20 times the price tag just bear that in mind when you’re talking to your your your buddies at these uh Memorial Day and Fourth of July parties and they they give you that hot Pro Russian take anyway guys that is all I had for today thank you guys so much as always and a huge thank you to the members of combat fet news.com I really appreciate you guys if you want to become a member again check it out uh you get access to the videos from the Battle of ultra datina and my analysis and I’ll see you you guys in the next one cheers

Uncensored Video of the Fighting & Analysis Drops Twice a Week! https://www.combatvetnews.com/become-a-member

Become a Member for exclusive perks!
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMYdyjyHjKMzltuatKxkudw/join

Channel Manager/General Inquiries :Dan@combatvetnews.com
Sponsorship Inquiries : cvr.mhgr@intheblackmedia.com
Original Video:
https://deepstatemap.live/#10/50.1563/36.5534
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

➧Discord! discord.gg/ZmhCTJmAhW
➧MHGR! youtube.com/c/militaryhistorygearreview
➧Instagram: instagram.com/Combatvetnews

Get the essential National Security News FREE Right to your inbox with the Strategic SitRep https://strategicsitrep.com/subscribe

Become a Member for exclusive perks!
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMYdyjyHjKMzltuatKxkudw/join

Original Video:
https://deepstatemap.live/#10/50.1563/36.5534
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

➧Discord! discord.gg/ZmhCTJmAhW
➧MHGR! youtube.com/c/militaryhistorygearreview
➧Instagram: instagram.com/Combatvetnews

*Copyright Disclaimer Under Section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976, allowance is made for “fair use” for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, and research. Fair use is a use permitted by copyright statute that might otherwise be infringing. Non-profit, educational or personal use tips the balance in favor of fair use. No copyright infringement intended. ALL RIGHTS BELONG TO THEIR RESPECTIVE OWNERS

*Disclaimers: all opinions are my own, sponsors are acknowledged. Not financial advice, for entertainment purposes only.