Russian Attack Stalling in Vovchansk?

Russian Attack Stalling in Vovchansk?

Russian forces look to be stalled out in their efforts to take vens but is the advantage still in Russia’s favor thanks to Western policy makers I’m Paul US Army Combat veteran let’s talk about it okay so looking at the control map there there on the Frontline map there’s no updates um I looked on X there’s no uh like geolocated footage of Russia occupying any kind of New Towns uh just these mattering of small little uh hamlets uh around the Russia Ukraine border uh where fighting has kind of continued you can see Russian forces again continuing to launch a series of attacks across this kind of front line here uh really between the denet river and uh this Reservoir river system here um but what’s interesting at least to me is that the Russia’s the AR Russian Target is the only town of any sort of real size here and that’s vens and vens is interesting uh because one it has become pretty obvious that this is the main thrust of the Russian effort and seizing this town is kind of essential to Russia’s uh operational objectives um but they can’t seem to do it right you see it would grant them access uh to this uh Highway here this t2104 uh but the problem if you want to call it that for Russia is that seasoning vens I think they may use it as a logistics Hub or a Firebase to kind of uh provide cover to operations maybe in this larger area but it doesn’t move them towards harke um in fact this uh t2104 Highway in some ways runs almost parallel with harke right it’s not going to bring them much closer and it’s going to put a an inre inre inly large and impassable obstacle between them in the form of the denk river so for Russian forces if their goal is harke they have to take lipy and this is where their offensive seems even more stalled out right we haven’t seen any evidence that they’ve seized hyob boka or lukanski uh and with more and more Ukrainian reinforcements coming into the area it seems increasing ly unlikely that they’re going to pull it off uh given the fact that as we’ve talked about Russia doesn’t seem to be deploying its largest armored forces in this fighting and so you have these groups of infantry that are kind of seizing territory and it certainly looks good for them but when you peel back the layers you realize this actually isn’t uh all that dramatic a SE a turn of events now before we talk before we start peeling back those layers of course uh I got a shout out strike gum you know strike gum uh 90 milligrams caffeine in every piece 100 milligrams Alpha GPC further cognitive enhancement if you need the uh boost of an energy drink but you don’t want to go to a gas station and drop four and a half bucks on it right uh instead you can for basically the same price get a pack of strike gum which has the equivalent of five energy drinks so if you bought a tray which you can get on Amazon uh you would get the equivalent of like 75 energy drinks works out to like 98 cents a piece right so you know compare that to the same caffeine in your 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conduct operations in places like Cambodia right or the fact that the US kind of did half measures in Cambodia uh meant that they could use the places like the hoian tra in order to uh basically establish their entire Logistics system and I say these things because it’s really important to understand that in war war you know as Von kwit said war is politics by other means and this is true right these political lines are often times you know they’re they’re administrative boundaries uh sometimes they kind of align with existing water river formations but they are represent places where laws and policies uh change and militaries exploit this again the us would have sent boots on the ground M you know regiments uh brigades battalions into any City in Vietnam but they were unwilling to do so in places like LA and Cambodia the Vietnamese exploited this weakness similarly in Afghanistan I can tell you I was stationed I can show you guys I was stationed in uh Nahar Province right right here uh actually we were in nazian District is where we operated primarily but we also operated quite a bit in a chin here but one of the the unsolvable problems that we had to deal with was the fact that this region here was a major Transit point for Smugglers and we struggled because the Taliban and Associated Insurgent forces would remain in Pakistan basically preparing for operations they would only cross the border when they wanted to engage uh US forces and so we could not get the drop on them we could not surprise them we could not catch them unprepared because they only crossed the border when they were ready to fight and it made I mean this is like fundamental to insurgencies but the fact that we couldn’t cross the border the only thing that we could do is basically just report everything we saw and found uh to our intelligence shop and they in turn reported it up to some other folks and eventually we started to see a series of CIA drone strikes in this area um that that did manage to mitigate the situation uh and really reduced the willingness of the Taliban to attack but until that happened they were really able to exploit it and again it would have been way easier for us to go into some of these areas in the kyber valley and actually like like clean things up right but they the Taliban and Insurgent groups like the hakani network they knew they knew they could take advantage of this artificial boundary um to cause tremendous angst for US forces and Russia they’re no different right uh they know that Western policy makers have said listen we’ll give you weapons but only to defend your Sovereign territory and the problem is is that that means that Russia can literally you you could have Putin himself standing over here and Western policy says you can’t hit him with a high Mars right you can’t just smoke the dude with a western made drone and it’s pretty frustrating if you’re a Ukrainian and it’s right now extremely problematic because what this means is that if you’re a Russian soldier fighting in V Chens your Logistics Hub like a major Fuel Depot a major uh repair center is basically safe it’s safe from all Western weapons ukrainians have to use Soviet era stocks if they have any left to hit them and that’s just so much less effective but it makes it so much easier for Russia to operate in some of these towns now I’m exaggerating I don’t think they’re literally sitting on the border but they they could be and they’re much more forward deployed they’re much closer to the border and they’re much a better able to support these efforts and that means that these Russian light infantry forces are going to just be tougher at Baseline uh they’re going to be you know they’re going to be able to get kavac to medical treatment faster they’re going to be able to get resupply faster their tanks are going to be able to get more ammunition faster it’s just a really tough situation uh and it reflects a reality that the reason ukrainians ask for high Mars is because the further they stretch Russian Logistics lines the further back from the front uh the Russian Logistics system has to locate itself the harder a time uh the Russian forces have sustaining these kind of combat operations right and this new front kind of solves that now the problem is going to in some ways solve itself because as you may note the deeper into Ukrainian territory they get the more mitigated this Advantage is and so the worst case scenario still tilts the scales in Ukraine’s favor right if Russia were to advance then Ukraine would have a a more Rich Target environment inside its own territory to take out Russian logistic support so all that to say though it even isw is assessing that uh vens is the Target right and um the Russian forces going after Bridges and water features to isolate the Ukrainian defenders in vens um but again it it’s not clear that vchs serves a larger operational purpose Beyond simply pressuring Ukrainian forces they may be aspiring to maybe pressure them uh along this line of contact here in kind of the kopans region we know that somewhere Russia’s been pushing to take for some time but again if harke is the objective and as we’ve talked about uh on the live stream earlier uh harke is based on Bachman and have divka harke would be a nightmarish fight for Russian forces but they but it’s not clear that there’s another meaningful objective that Russia can achieve even if they get their hands on volens so anyway guys that’s really all I had thank you to the colonel tier members of combat news.com the lieutenant tier members I really could not do this without you guys tomorrow we’re going to take a look at all the footage from the fighting here on combat news so check us out and I’ll see you guys in the next one cheers

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Original Video:
https://deepstatemap.live/#10/50.1563/36.5534
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

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Original Video:
https://deepstatemap.live/#10/50.1563/36.5534
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

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