Russia’s Premature Offensive is Losing Steam Already!

Russia’s Premature Offensive is Losing Steam Already!

Russian forces appear to be trapped in place in their campaign to seize vens is this just a temporary delay or is it a sign that Russia’s offensive is already losing gas I’m Paul US Army Combat veteran let’s talk about it okay so the we finally have some updates uh over the last 24 hours right this is where the the uh battle line so to speak in this Russian Northern offensive this effort to take our ke uh stood right you can see Hoka uh lansi and zelina uh all held by Russian forces partially or completely as well as uh hot Sheen and uh plenka uh but overall most folks seem to say that vens was the primary Russian Target and you can see here them trying to take the wank Airfield as well as some of the buildings in the Northern portion you can see a few here that is listed in the contested Zone uh but in the last 24 hours you can see the changes have been pretty interesting uh first off there isn’t actually there doesn’t appear to be a net change in total Russian area controlled as it looks like they’ve been pushed out of zelina um but have advanced further in Hil bua and this is to me a very interesting turn of events they also appear to have seized the uh administrative boundaries the entire of Luan uh so I look at this and I don’t see a Russian invasion Force that’s like broken the ukrainians or anything like that I see the ukrainians making uh again elastic defense kind of calls pulling the Russians more into their territory and as we’ve talked about the defenses are pretty light in these kind of Border regions uh By Design right because again the ukrainians unable to attack Russia targets with many of their most powerful Western provided weapons forcing them to build their defensive lines at a place where if the Russians invade they can at least reasonably Counterattack uh so that’s I think what you’re seeing here and you’re going to see I think Russia slow Russia’s advances slow considerably as they try to take lipy uh as we’ve talked about I think lepy is probably a operational Target for Russia as it puts them within kind of striking distance of at least the har outskirts right their artillery should be able to hit some of these uh outskirt areas of harke it’s also even possible that the lipy if they can Russia can establish a s a permanent fire base there that it may actually end up being sort of the artillery cover for a more mechanized Russian offensive that moves down this major highway into harke but I think that’s Russia’s goal the question is can they achieve it because doing so is going to involve crossing a lot of open ground uh with uh reduced room to maneuver thanks to this har Reservoir and the dam the accompanying Dam here as well as the fact that once they pass the reservoir they got this big flat open ground uh in lipy itself as well as some elevated uh positions here to the northeast of the town so again it remains to be seen if Russia can really drive meaningfully towards this objective um especially given the fact that again you’re seeing generally it seems like if Ultra atina is a metric is a is a example of a Russian offensive where there’s a substantial breakthrough then there’s some incremental gains that slow over time and then finally the breakthroughs contained as Ukrainian reinforcements uh grind out the Russian offensive effort now looking over at this kind of second prong uh you can see that the only change is actually an increase in the cont contested region with part of the town of Ven listed as contested this is not again this may be a little generous some people are are reporting that Russian forces have sustained occupation and some of these like Northern outskirt buildings um but that has yet to be confirmed when we look over at the live UA map you can see they’re reporting similar things they’re actually saying that lucani not in fact uh taken by Russian forces and zelina not even remotely close to being seized uh and H bokeh still under Ukrainian control entirely so they’re being even more generous in their interpretation you can see here uh again they list actually the northern districts of vens as being under Russian control with the uh Southern majority of the Town being under Ukrainian control as we as we know if this is true once Russia they’re like a they’re they’re they’re like a virus once they get kind of into a host It’s relatively it’s not easy for them but they have very refined tactics that allow them to take block by block and I think that’s what you might see Russia do if they get into vens is just sort of carve off block by block the entirety of the town but I think chances are you might see Russian or Ukrainian forces trying to occupy the southern end of this River here using this as kind of a defensive barrier to secure vens I I I suspect that’s what they may choose to do um but the takeaway to me is that what we’re not we’re seeing what we aren’t seeing is any kind of stunning breakthrough any kind of major um major like Russian offensive right this isn’t uh some sort of Game Changer this looks like attritional this looks like Russian forces are forcing the ukrainians to divert some of their forces to this Northern Region and you can see uh Russia conducting 140 combat engagements across the front line so this is I think we’re firmly into Russia’s summer offensive um I think they planned on doing this Northern offensive I actually suspect doing it with more troops but I think someone in their High command said listen we have to launch this offensive with what we have because every week we wait more Western Aid arrives in Ukraine and they know they can’t make the same mistake that Ukraine did in its counter offensive where they waited till their preparations felt perfect but the defender preparations in this case Russia’s were also even more well-refined and so Russia May sit there and say we don’t want to give Ukraine a chance to get all these new materials to reconstitute their forces we’re going to double and triple down even if it means attacking with an under strength Force now if you want to see the footage from this fighting it just dropped today for members on combet news.com and you guys know that I’m out here trying to do uh putting out content every single day I have very few sponsors that want to sponsor this type of content um but I rely on you guys the fans to support me and keep me and the team able to do this every day so any one of these tiers is going to get you access to the twice weekly breakdowns of the combat videos and again this fighting really interesting because you can see Russia is basically there was no footage of Russian armored vehicles operating at all anywhere um it was all lancets and light Infantry which is kind of crazy that you can achieve this level of Battlefield effect which is a lot for this conflict using just dismounted infantry and drones so again if you want to support the if you want to really support me uh become liutenant or even a colonel tier you get access to an exclusive room on the Discord and plus I shout you out at the end of every video which is pretty cool um so thanks to all the members of combat event news that that support me now here’s where things are even weirder to me is that the as of 2:45 p.m. Eastern on May 13th isw was pretty pessimistic right uh Russian forces they said continue to make tactically significant advances North and Northeast of harke um prioritizing the rapid establishment of a buffer zone setting conditions for deeper penetration Uh Russian forces it says Advanced into Hoka raised the flag in the center of the villages but Russian sources said that Russian forces haven’t seized the ENT of the city um again I I think that there’s a little bit of using geolocated footage can be a little deceptive and the reason is because um it’s fairly easy and possible to Surge into an area and like hold it for a couple hours but the counterattacks uh seem to routinely flip these areas back and forth is one of the reasons why like the Deep state map sometimes they’re a little conservative with their assessments but I appreciate the fact that they’re not out here assessing like switching control of villages willy-nilly because there’s attacks and counterattacks and generally you need to hold something for about 24 hours in this war before you can really sit there and be like okay this is actually occupied by uh uh one side or the other um again they talk about May 12th saying that Russian forces seize the ven’s meat processing plant in Northern sh um and Russian forces kept a shoe factory watch out guys they can make kicks where we’re done we’re Ukraine is done for guys the Russians are going to turn out offbrand Russian Nikes um maybe all of their infantry troops can finally have the full Slavic Adidas tracksuit kit um but again you can see they’re like oh russan forces rapid rate in it involve chanks which again as of yesterday is that’s probably how it looked um you can see right 10th 11th 12th it probably looks like a big push 13th but you can see here again we’re looking at things slowing down like considerably this isn’t like a stunning breakthrough this isn’t some sort of big Russian surge I I think the claims that Russia was going to like I think it’s they are seeing exactly what you might expect from uh Russia launching an attack before they are fully ready um I think you are seeing a attack that has that’s kind of anemic right so it it pushes really hard early on it surges in and then very quickly loses steam right they run out of their mass of of um fpv drones right their light infantry kind of make the gains they can make in these low defense regions and now they have to kind of fight tooth and nail for more gains it’s a really I I think you’re seeing in real time a the the other consequence of launching an attack early yeah you catch the enemy a little flat footed but you yourself also lose Steam and this is why like this isn’t like a it’s not like a a strategy game where there are there’s an objectively better way to play it’s more about making trade-offs right Wars about trade-offs and risk you assume some Risk by attacking early you assume some Risk by attacking so uh that is sort of the conflict that that every Commander has to make um anyway guys that is all I had thank you to the colonel tier members really you guys are the ultimate Giga Chads here uh thanks to all of our Lieutenant tier members I could not do this without you guys and uh uh the video’s already dropped so go check it out become a member I’ll see you guys in the next one cheers

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Original Video:
https://deepstatemap.live/#10/50.1563/36.5534
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

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Original Video:
https://deepstatemap.live/#10/50.1563/36.5534
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

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