Is Russia winning the war in Ukraine? | GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

– Can we afford not to succeed in Ukraine? And, in fact, if we don’t succeed in Ukraine, what does that mean for the security of NATO writ large? Same is true for the United States. Frankly, no one has been wanting to have that discussion, but I think we’re getting to a point where it’s necessary. Because failure’s not an option. (light upbeat music) – Hello and welcome to "GZERO World." I’m Ian Bremmer. And today we are taking a look at what’s happening on the battlefield in Ukraine, asking the hard question: Is Russia now winning this war? 18 months ago, the battlefield looked very different. Moscow’s troops were decimated, the Black Sea naval fleet was destroyed, and it struggled to bring advanced technology and weapons to the front lines. But in the past few months, Russia has been able to rearm, regroup, resupply, and is now taking territory in northeast and southeast Ukraine at its fastest pace since the beginning of the war. So what comes next? Can Western allies stay committed to Kiev for the long haul? And what happens if Russia actually wins? Here to help unpack these big questions is Ivo Daalder, President of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and former U.S. Ambassador to NATO. (clock ticks) – Is Putin’s bet paying off? (munitions explode) When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin’s strategy came down to a word: time. (munitions explode) Russia had time to fight a grinding, bloody battle of attrition, time to wait for war fatigue to settle in among Western allies, time to let global attention fade from the headlines. And over two years later, that plan seems to be working at least as well as Putin could have hoped. Political infighting in Washington led to a six-month delay in delivering military aid. That’s an opening that Russia exploited. And as global attention and diplomatic efforts turned to Gaza and the Middle East, Ukraine started losing the war. In recent weeks, Moscow’s troops have pushed into the northeast and are closing in on the country’s second largest city, Kharkiv. And that means Kiev is now using precious troops and weapons to defend an area it already clawed back in 2022. The gap in air defenses has allowed Russia to ramp up attacks on Ukrainian ports and agriculture, threatening global food security. In a sign of just how alarming the situation is right now, President Zelensky canceled all upcoming foreign travel to focus on Russia’s offensive. That’s all to say, the $61 billion in military aid recently passed by Congress can’t come soon enough for the Ukrainians. Battlefield conditions are so dire that a high-level intelligence briefing apparently convinced conservative Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, to reverse his positions and push for the military package. – I really do believe the intel and the briefings that we’ve gotten. I think that Vladimir Putin would continue to march through Europe if he were allowed. I think he might go to the Balkans next. I think he might have a showdown with Poland or one of our NATO allies. To put it bluntly, I would rather send bullets to Ukraine than American boys. – That’s a risk European leaders are increasingly talking about, a Russian win in Ukraine and an emboldened Moscow bringing the specter of war to NATO’s backyard. Poland and the Baltic states would be especially vulnerable to Russian influence and security threats, leading to a dangerous arms race in the region. For now, the United States military aid will help Ukraine pay for a few months worth of artillery and air defense, as well as training for Ukrainian troops on advanced weapons systems. And in the meantime, Secretary of State Antony Blinken is working to reassure Ukraine and its allies that the U.S. is committed for the long haul, that funding will continue, that time can be an asset if you look at the big picture. – We sometimes hear that time is on Putin’s side. In fact, Russia’s been losing the battle to control Ukraine’s destiny for 20 years. And Putin has it wrong. Time is on Ukraine’s side. As the war goes on, Russia is going back in time. – This year’s NATO summit in July will be a major test. NATO leaders are trying to lock in security commitments for Ukraine ahead of the alliance’s 75th anniversary. Problem is, they don’t have much time to figure it out. So what happens if the U.S. aid dries up completely? Is Ukraine running out of time? I’ll get into all this and more with my guest this week, former U.S. ambassador to NATO and President of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Ivo Daalder, and he joins us today from Estonia. Ivo Daalder, welcome back to the show. – Great to be back. – You’re in Estonia right now. I’ll ask you about Estonia and the Baltics and where the war could go, but I want to start with Ukraine because, of course, over the last few weeks, I am hearing increasingly very negative things from U.S. leaders, from NATO leaders, that it is getting harder and harder to constrain the dynamics of how this Russia-Ukraine war is going. – Yeah, I think that’s true. I think we will look back when the history of this war is written, back to the last six months as really the last six months that may well become the turning point. It was always the case that the Ukrainians needed more capabilities, they needed more ammunition, they needed more air defense systems in order to defend their capabilities. And they needed more manpower. They only started working on the manpower issue a couple of months ago, and that’s going very, very slow, much too slow in order to fill the slots that they need to fill to hold the line. But, you know, you can have as many men, if they don’t have any bullets to fire or shells to shoot, it doesn’t really matter. And the United States was the linchpin and remains the linchpin of the armaments that the Ukrainians require. The rest of the world just doesn’t have enough in their stockpiles. And the Congress refusing to act on the request that the president first made back in July, that’s the last time he made a $13 billion request, and nothing happening until mid-April. And now it’s just taken, you know, it just takes time to get stuff to the front and get it across the border and to the units in the quantities to make it happening. And the Russians have decided they’re going to take the advantage of the hole that was created, and they’re trying to punch through left and right. They just have more people, they have more guns, and they, importantly, it looks like they have more and better morale, which makes them willing to do things that otherwise people aren’t willing to do. At the same time, things aren’t going well on the Ukrainian side. Yeah, so this is a very tough period. – Now, Ivo, the latter point surprises me a little bit. I understand why Ukrainian morale would be challenging given the lack of support and military capacity in the past months, but of course the Ukrainians are fighting for their homeland. The Russians are not. – Well, it’s relative, of course. Ukrainian morale, in that sense, is better. But it was down on the Russian side, it was negative. The pilots weren’t willing to fly because they were afraid of being shot down. These airplanes are now flying closer to the line, they’re more willing to take risks. They actually see results, and, you know, war’s about momentum. If you got it, then morale is on your side. Unless we rush more air defenses in to start defending these cities against the ballistic missile attacks, against the drone attacks. The level of destruction has gone up significantly. About 80% of the power-generating capacity inside Ukraine has now been destroyed. Yeah, it’s a dire situation. And it, really, I think, means we need to have a debate. We need to start having a conversation about, how serious is this, and are we going to accept this? We’ve been saying for two years, "We will do everything we can to allow Ukraine to defend itself." We’ve also said that it is our strategic interest that Russia not succeed. Well, it’s succeeding, and so that can’t be in our strategic interest. And as a result, what are we gonna do about it? We have military power, we have capabilities we could send in larger quantities. We have, you know, troops, and I’m in the Baltic states right now. That’s what they’re talking about. Maybe we should thinking about relieving some of the forces in the west by deploying training sites over there and doing other things in order for the Ukrainians to continue to fight in the east. – If the Russians are intent on continuing to bomb, as we’ve seen destroying power capabilities, but possibly also starting to terrorize to a much greater degree all of the urban centers around Ukraine, the ability of the Ukrainians to stop them, of the West to help the Ukrainians to stop them, does not exist. Is that an accurate assessment, Ivo? – Well, it doesn’t exist, except it does. It’s a question of how much of the capabilities that the West have, particularly in the United States but other countries too, need to be held back for other reasons. I mean, one of the reasons we’re not shipping as much as we can is because we want to keep some of it for ourselves in case there’s a conflict in China or around Taiwan. Of course now in the Middle East, with the active fighting that is going on and the possibility that has now existed for seven months that this war in Gaza might spread, it means that the Patriot systems that we have in large quantities, they’re stuck in Iraq, in Syria, protecting in Jordan, protecting our troops, air bases and naval bases in the Gulf. All of those capabilities are stuck, they can’t be moved. The same is true for the Germans who are making a very active effort to try to get more air defense systems from countries around the world. But if you’re a German military planner, you say, "Okay, how likely is it "that I will need some of those forces "in case the war does spread?" You don’t wanna leave your own forces naked. However, and I think this is the debate we need to have, can we afford not to succeed in Ukraine? And, in fact, if we don’t succeed in Ukraine, what does that mean for the security of NATO writ large when you will have to deploy all the Patriot systems? Same is true for the United States. These are the kinds of strategic decisions. Frankly, no one has been wanting to have that discussion, but I think we’re getting to a point where it’s necessary. Because failure’s not an option, as they say. It’s not an option for the Ukrainians, but it’s not an option for NATO and it’s not an option for us. Failing in Ukraine is a failure of NATO, it’s a failure of the United States that will have huge repercussions for our security in the long run. That’s kind of what’s been lost in this debate about whether or not we’re gonna send $60 billion to Ukraine. In the meantime, things have gone really bad. – You are now in Estonia, and as the Russians make gains in Ukraine, Estonia certainly feels like a place on the front lines. What’s the mood on this issue in Estonia right now? – Yeah, I mean, the mood is, you know, it’s not like you’re walking around downtown in the beautiful Tallinn city and you see people preparing sandbags and for an invasion coming around tomorrow. The mood, in that sense, is completely normal. It’s gorgeous weather here. People sitting outside, they’re enjoying themselves. But you talk to officials in the government, and they are worried. They’re worried because clearly the Russians have now decided that their survival and certainly Putin’s survival depends on the permanent mobilization of the country for war. The economy is moving into a war economy. It’s becoming increasingly dependent in order to grow on churning out missiles and airplanes and artillery and bullets and tanks, et cetera, rather than cars. That just means that a lot of this stuff is going to be sitting around that they will want to use. And there is this worry, there’s a very big worry, that if things don’t go well in Ukraine, then that threat just is transported to the border of Estonia, which borders on Russia. I’m in Tallinn, I’m a few hundred kilometers away from the Russian border. These are places that know there is a Russian threat. They also know, you know, what it means to be part of a Russian empire. They were incorporated into the Soviet Union for 50 years. You cannot believe that Vladimir Putin and this Russia is not ultimately going to find a way to try and weaken the West by dividing it, and, if necessary, using military force to that end. And so Estonia and Latvia and Lithuania and Poland, countries on the frontline are saying, "You, United States, you, Germany, "you need to wake up. "This war that you don’t wanna fight? "It’s right here, right now being fought in Ukraine." – U.S. elections coming up real soon. And former president Trump has said repeatedly, if he wins, the war is over in a day. The Europeans are very concerned about what that might mean for their security. How much of a vulnerability do you think there is in this war on the basis of the U.S. elections? – I think there’s a huge vulnerability. Trump has said that he’s going to end the war in 24 hours, and the way he is gonna do it, he’s going to tell the Ukrainians, "No more aid," he’s going to tell Vladimir Putin, "You keep what you have, but don’t take anything else." I think the problem is, neither the Ukrainians nor the Russians are going to listen to him. But the Europeans will listen. And in Europe, and it’s been now pretty clear for the last few months, they feel themselves squeezed between Putin and Trump. Trump as a country that is no longer willing and able reliably to help Europe in its own defense in the way it has done for 75 years. And, Putin, because it is a war economy that is bent on conquest and using war as a means to divide the West. And they’re increasingly thinking about, "How can we, ourselves, 450 million people, "with a strong economy, "figuring out how we can stand alone "in a world that is beset "by an unreliable and uncertain ally in the United States "and an increasingly threatened, "militarily expansionist Russia?" That’s the question Europe faces. It isn’t going away with this election. – So final point, Ivo. I mean we’ve talked a lot about the war, a lot about the implications for different actors. We haven’t talked about negotiations. Now, that is in part because no negotiations are happening. No negotiations are likely to happen. There’s no overlap between what the Russians would and the Ukrainians would accept, at least not for the foreseeable future. But it does seem to be the end of this war is overwhelmingly likely to involve Ukraine losing territory, overwhelmingly likely to lead to some form of partition, however unacceptable that sounds and seems to us as human beings. And I wonder if you accept that. – So I don’t. I think there will be a period in which there is neither fighting nor complete Ukrainian control of all the territory. And I do think that this war, that the fighting at some point will stop well short of Ukraine regaining all of the territory that it has lost. But that doesn’t end the war, nor does it end the conflict. I think the conflict’s gonna be there a long time. In some ways, the conflict has been going on for not just years, but decades and centuries. As long as Russia believes that its security depends fundamentally on the insecurity of its neighbors, we’re going to have a conflict. And Russians have believed that for 300, 400 years. And until they actually realize that their security depends on the security of their neighbors, that if neighbors are secure, they will be secure, until that time we will have conflict and war. And I think, therefore, when we talk about, "This war will end in a negotiation," what we’re talking about will more likely end in a stalemate, in some form of ceasefire, and perhaps even an armistice. But not in an end of the war or an end of the conflict per se. Just think Korea, or, even better example, Syria and Israel. They haven’t been fighting directly since, what, 1975 in the war of attrition. And Israel has now annexed the Golan Heights, but there’s no peace. There’s not even an agreement about who owns what territory. There’s occupation, in that sense, as far as the international community is concerned, of the Golan Heights. And yet there’s no fighting, direct, between the two belligerent parties. But there’s no peace. I think that’s the more likely way in which this conflict will evolve, and there will be a determination for the Ukrainians to get it all back, just as there was for the Estonians who are where I’m at right now to get their country back, which, ultimately, after 50 years, they did. – They did. Two different ways of talking about where we’re heading. Ivo Daalder, thanks for joining us today. – My pleasure, as always. (light ethereal music)

Former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder warns of Ukraine’s increasing vulnerability in the conflict with Russia, urging a serious discussion about the West’s ability to help Ukraine and the prospects for lasting peace.

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What would Ukraine’s defeat look like? Over two years into this bloody conflict, Russia has never been as close to victory as it is today. “When the history of this war is written,” former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder tells Ian Bremmer, “I think we’ll look back on the last six months as really… the turning point.” Daalder joins Bremmer on the latest episode of GZERO World from Tallinn, Estonia, just a couple hundred miles from the Russian border.

“We need to start having a conversation about how serious this is, and are we going to accept this?” In a sobering and wide-ranging interview, Daalder outlines Russia’s advantage on the battlefield today. “They just have more people, they have more guns, and importantly, it looks like they have more and better morale, which makes them willing to do things that otherwise people aren’t willing to do.”

How much is this battlefield mismatch due to a delay in US support? A big part of it, says Daalder. “Congress refusing to act on the requests that the president first made back in July…and nothing happening until mid-April” was a major blow to Ukraine’s defenses, Daalder says. “And now it just takes time to get stuff to the front and get it across the border and to the units in the quantities to make it happen.”

Is it too late for the West to help Ukraine ward off total defeat? And what would lasting peace, as remote as it might seem now, look like?

Dig Deeper: In the past two weeks, Russia has taken more Ukrainian territory than in the past six months combined. Now military experts are asking the hard question: Is Ukraine losing the war? Ian takes a look: https://youtu.be/qDeVAXMzb_c

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48 comments

  1. The lies being told over the years is finally showing that the west was never stronger than the East and definitely not stronger than Russia. It’s surprising that countries and US do not want to put boots on the ground we went Libya, Panama, Iraq, Afghanistan etc so what changed now do the samething to Russia. Ukraine was dOOp by the US and UK lies that’s being exposed and as you can hear the commentators are lying till they are unable to come up with new lies. NATO send in what troops, what capabilities lol keep back what for capabilities so Russia can not be beat and now you think you can beat China. All the patriots system is being blown up by Russia 32 was send they all damaged. Putin said he is willing to negotiate everyday also stated he has no appetite to attack the Baltic… no one can stop the hypersonic missile not to mention the nukes the citizens of nato says they want peace it’s the head of government fear mongering and bluffing but remember everything Russia says it will do they have always DONE IT keep that in mind.

  5. My heart bleeds for them….They have been forgotten now that Israel has taken centre stage and the Maga cult has messed everything up in the USA – this is going to end disastrously… and that will come back to bite the whole West….

  9. Speaker Johnson is a fool.

    The part of this situation is that you're not hearing is that we the people are not fighting Russia over Ukraine, Poland, Germany, France, or Britain. US interests in Europe are the interests of wealthy people, not the rest of us.

  12. Why is failure in Ukraine not an option for NATO?
    Doesn't that mean the Russians were right that this was about NATO trying to threaten them after all?

  17. What is failure not an option? Failure was an option with Cuba, Vietnam and Afghanistan. What makes Ukraine so special that we need to risk nuclear war?

  18. We already spend more than 130 billions dollar ! And just look how look our streets and cities . Homeless and misery everywhere . Many of this people on the streets are our Veterans ! I prefer to give them the money then this Zelensky !

  20. No, the Europe feel squeezed between Biden and Zelensky not Putin and Trump. Probably you forget the North Stream and the deindustrialization of the Europe in the last 2 yrs. due the hight cost of energy. Stop this stupid proxy war. USA has already reach the target, and is pretty clear that they don't care about Ukraine and EU. Victoria Nuland docet!

  21. Nato, WEST can not loose, you guys lost all the wars from Vietnam, …AFganistan …you just stop talking and enjoyed to inflict pain and damage to other nations. YOU should be ashamed of your policy of dominance and controlling rest of the world. You spell blood all over the globe, isn't already enough of that bestial foreign policy?

  23. U.S and NATO use Ukraine as a tool to weakening Russia at any cost , And Zelinski this Americans's puppet will do any thing to provide U.S interests at any cost, (lost of Ukrainians lives and destruction of Ukraine),

  25. they though its was Afganistan,,,Russia are beateen more than 25 nato countries in ukrain,all that with shovep
    ls and machine watch

  31. How dim are Westerners to believe this manure?

    The only thing that the West has control over is how many Ukrainians die before the inevitable Russian victory.

    To suggest that the literal comedian Zelensky would succeed where Napoleon and the Führer failed is the height of delusion.

  32. To me it looks like US is the only part that really wants wars probably because the enormous profits some very influential people sponsoring the political sector are making through the weapons industri…

  33. Ukraine had almost no chance from the beginning. The numbers simply don't work for them. As tough and as brave as the Ukrainians have been, you simply can't beat a country like Russia with a population 3.5 times the size of Ukraine in a conventional war of attrition.

  35. nobody will even notice once ukraine is gone and trying to pretend like the world will fall apart if ukraine falls just reminds us that our world its not worth saving in the first place and is nothing but lies everywhere you look. we should be thanking russia for standing up to the west. not condemning them for it.

  36. Russia is clearly in the wrong in invading Ukraine. However, I would also say that playing a game of bluff with the largest nuclear armed neighbor was a dangerous and reckless action to begin with. It would have been much wiser for Ukraine to stay neutral and survive even if it is very unfair to them. Unfortunately, that's the unpleasant reality of living next to a superpower. If you don't believe me go ahead and ask the Cubans as to what happened to them. It's so heartbreaking to finally learn that all of this loss of human life and the utter destruction could have been avoided. If only there were politicians who were willing to compromise. I really blame the elites in Ukraine for being so naive in thinking they could rely on third party support, no matter how convincing the pledge was, to engage in a destructive war and hope to prevail. Not to mention the fact they don't produce any weapons that match Russia's firepower.

  37. They have zelenskis replacement a man who was the previous president of Ukraine a man much loved by the people so if a coup occurred today I feel confident this new dude will put people first always unlike zelenski who has put people in back of trucks and out into the grinder

  38. Idiots, Kiev was named "mother of Russian cities" thousand years ago when no one knew what did "ukrainian" mean at all. How can it be that Russians fight not for their land???

  39. There would be no war if NATO, a.military organization, had not spread throughout Europe closer and closer to Russia in peacetime. And had not convinced Ukraine to show its a$$ to Russia. Russia now saying enough. What a surprise.

  41. What happens if Russia actually wins? -> The pro-russian territories will belong to Russia, Ukraine will become a neutral state.
    Vladimir Putin will continue to march through Europe -> No, NATO and Russia are nuclear powers, Putin mentioned that many times that this would be the end of humanity.
    Estonia is in danger after Ukraines failure -> No, Estonia is a NATO member, see answer above.
    Can Europe afford a failure in Ukraine and what would it mean for the security-> Same situation as before 2014, Ukraine was considered an ally of Russia, so nothing new.

    Stopp this warmongering, its horrible

  42. guys, you are warmongering fools. Accept f*cking reality and let us live. Every domination has its end, be at least a little dignified.

  45. Zelensky isn't Ukraine. We, the real Ukrainian People who elected democratically Yankovich, are the real Ukrainians.
    Furthermore, Zelensky's regime is now illegitimate.
    Lastly, The Russian Federation forces won already.

  47. “Failure it’s not an option” that’s exactly what got us in the economic crisis in 2008. Instead of looking for good exit solutions we keep hamering the nail hoping to get to the other side of the board.

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