The Lie About Ukraine China NEEDS To Become True!

The Lie About Ukraine China NEEDS To Become True!

the myth that the Ukraine conflict was caused by NATO expansion is the dumb story that refuses to die but some comments from the people’s Liberation Army of China reveal that China has a pretty vested interest in making sure the NATO narrative doesn’t extinguish we’re going to talk about just why China is so committed to this bizarre talking point how we know that it’s a load of whoie and what exactly the International Community thinks about it plus we’re going to talk about the US’s policy of strategic ambiguity over whether or not it’s stuff its weapons are allowed to be used on the border and why the institute for the study of War gets it wrong it’s a whole grab bag episode uh I’m Paul US Army Combat veteran let’s get into it okay so this story is actually coming to us from the other side of the world from Singapore where the uh Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is at a major uh security conference right where there’s also attendance by some senior pla officials now here’s what I thought was really interesting is here’s a video clip from that interaction in which a pla Colonel asks the SE def uh Point Blank right um that was the Ukraine conflict caused by NATO’s expansion and here’s secretary Austin’s reply um I respectfully disagree with your point that the expansion of NATO uh caused the Ukraine crisis the Ukraine crisis was now you might notice something interesting in an in a an a an audience focused primarily on East Asian security matters are applauding tremendously at this comment and and we’re going to talk about why this is such a popular sentiment right and but let’s let him finish his comments it’s only a minute long Ukraine crisis obviously was caused because Mr Putin made a decision to unlawfully invade his neighbor who had an inferior military at that point in time he assumed that could uh very quickly roll over uh his neighbor and Annex the country that was two plus years ago he has not achieved any of his strategic objectives to this point okay now here’s what’s interesting about this one Lloyd Austin says no I don’t think that the NATO expansion uh was the cause and first and foremost Ukraine was not close to Nato membership they were not close in 2014 they weren’t any closer in 2022 and the NATO policy right one NATO’s policy is anyone can apply Russia can apply to join NATO if they wanted to and the NATO policy also says so that technically Ukraine had just as likely a chance of membership as any other country Kazakhstan could apply for membership the open door policy and it’s been in place since the 1950 and the de facto it’s an Unwritten policy is that if you want to join NATO you have to control your Sovereign territory why because otherwise NATO would bring in a member currently at War and it would immediately trigger an article 5 a risk- triggering an article 5 intervention and NATO doesn’t want to sign up for that right uh you also just for a host of logistical reasons you can’t bring in a country when you don’t actually know what what parts of the country are being brought in right it’s too fraught it’s uh it’s like trying to drive a car with three wheels or try you want to buy a car and it’s only got three wheels you’re like dude no you have to get your get I won’t I’ll buy the car when you get a fourth wheel on it right you’re buying you know you want your members to be complete countries so Ukraine was never really like there was no like imminent NATO membership there was no membership on the table and Russia’s annexation of Crimea had effectively taken that off the table 10 years ago and here’s the thing here’s the number one thing when you if you in your life encounter somebody that repeats this talking point I will show you the counter here is the official transcript from the Russian government right from the from the press releases about Putin’s interview with Tucker Carlson remember right a US journalist friendly to Russ talking points sat down with Putin himself and asked him his first question he said Putin you said at the outset of the war that you thought NATO might quote surprise attack on our country end quote Putin says to American ear that sounds paranoid tell us why you believe the US might strike Russia out of the blue how did you conclude that how did you conclude that NATO was the threat that you were responding to when you invaded Ukraine right and then Putin says well it’s not that’s not true the United States was not going to launch a surprise strike on Russia I didn’t say that and Tu said well that was a quote from you so he says okay tell me then please tell me why this has happened and Putin he doesn’t say anything about NATO he proceeds you might remember for the next like 35 minutes to date back to the 8th century and says essentially that UK Ukraine is historically Russian lands right so even Tucker Carlson says okay after like 25 minutes of of Putin’s history lesson he says okay you are making the case that Ukraine or certain parts of Ukraine have been Russian for hundreds of years he Tucker Carlson then asked why would you not just take it when you became president 24 years ago you have nuclear weapons they don’t it’s it’s actually your land why wait so long and this is the part that is this is the the the the lead Putin could have said yes it was NATO expansion that compelled us to become involved but he didn’t and the reason is because it’s not because Putin’s talking points right to his public to the Kremlin to the the the The Diplomatic Community has always been that Ukraine is a part of Russia that is Putin’s belief that Russia in its current form is a State and that he as the leader of Russia right as part of Russia’s Thousand-Year history that he loves to site has an obligation to expand Russian territory to its historic borders and that’s it that’s the answer so but but but that doesn’t answer the actual question why is China so hung up on the idea that that NATO expans expion is the is the cause of this conflict well the answer is pretty simple this guy this dude Taiwan now here’s the thing many countries in the world consider Taiwan de facto or dujour an independent nation and if you believe if it if it is generally accepted by the International Community that the war in Ukraine is a big neighbor invading a smaller country whom they wish to dominate and integrate particularly one who they believe is a historically uh historically belongs to the big country right do you see the parallels Here China says the same thing about Taiwan they say Taiwan isn’t an independent country that’s some fake that that Taiwan just doesn’t understand they’re actually historically a part of China and it is writing a historic wrong when if if China was to invade Taiwan and reintegrate it into into China that is an important key part of the Chinese belief the problem that China runs into is that the International Community has made very clear this is wrong it is wrong of you the big country to invade your smaller country even if you think they’re supposed to be a part of you and China’s nightmare scenario is to get screwed by the International Community the way Russia has right and it’s not an accident that Lloyd Austin says Russia invaded Ukraine believing it had a superior military and China operates on a similar set of Illusions they say oh our military is bigger we have a bigger industrial base right we can definitely roll over the Taiwanese and the nightmare scenario for China would be if if Taiwan becomes China’s Ukraine right and so how does China need the international narrative to go the international narrative that China needs is to say listen Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is not an analog for Taiwan they have nothing to do with each other they’re totally different conflicts and this is caused by uh Western arrogance and that the West caused this war because they felt they needed to intervene in the politics of a big powerful country on the other side of the world and so if that narrative becomes true then not only does China get permission to invade Taiwan it actually gets to go it’s the West’s fault if we invade Taiwan it’s the interventionist West with their insane commitment to not invading countries willy-nilly that’s caused uh us China to invade Taiwan right so you see how one narrative NATO expansion suits Chinese interests to a T and another narrative that Putin has expansionist desires and believes he’s reintegrating his country absolutely crushes China’s strategic objective of seizing Taiwan again worth pointing out that if China was to get Ukraine in Taiwan it would be a disaster the Chinese military is already pretty shaky the sanctions regime that Russia is subject to uh would China um countries for years have been pulling their Industries out of China it’s now very expensive the Chinese deflation crisis has meant that it’s now cheaper to manufacture in uh us allies like Vietnam or the Philippines and this is just a and China is in many ways surrounded by enemies people that really hate them the Vietnamese hate the Chinese uh many of the cambodians the taies are staunch Vietnamese or Chinese uh enemies um obviously the Koreans uh South Korea at least Japan these are all powerful industrial countries that in China’s worst case scenario is that they mobilize in support of Taiwan on and you might notice there were so many Applause the reason is because China doesn’t only believe Taiwan is its rightful possession right there are islands that are owned by Korea and Japan that China believes are its own right I wonder I I I bet there’s a Wikipedia that’s a list of Chinese claims right and territories that are yeah there you go territorial disputes of the People’s Republic of China okay this will tell you why there is so many Applause because China right like Russia believes it owns everything believes it owns the whole stinking Universe okay um right this is just Classic this is just classic like authoritarian ethn nonsense right nobody’s real but Chinese people nobody’s really real but Russians the ukrainians are just confused Russians or their subordinate to Russians they’re less they’re not people in the Russian mind just like the Japanese or the Indians or the Taiwanese aren’t really people only the Chinese are real people right so and Mandarin speaking Chinese to be clear but look at this look at all the countries that are like yo I have a problem with China’s Ambitions to Annex its historic lands right so Bhutan borders Tibet in a border that’s never been recognized and China believes uh has a territorial claim on parts of Bhutan right China has numerous border disputes with India the Border region a source of constant conflict uh Japan a group of uninhabited islands known as the Saku Islands in Japan or the da Islands to the uh to China um right Taiwan the Entre the entire state of Taiwan right Vietnam and China have ongoing territorial disputes over the paracels and the South China SE with Chinese sovereignty claiming s sovereignty over this n- line they also have resolved disputes with just a phenomenal number of other countries right you might remember the n-h line all this insanity but you can see uh again the South China Sea right this includes all the spratley and the parasoles and all these other Islands right but you can see how this is just a a a huge source of dispute so that’s why everyone applauded when they said listen Lloyd Austin came out and said listen us we are backing Ukraine because they have a right not to be invaded their Sovereign territory is theirs and even if Putin has some nonsense claim he doesn’t get to exercise it right the inter AAL Community stands with the with people’s right to defend their internationally recognized borders and that’s why a a Southeast Asian conference was cheering for Ukraine okay now before you guys we talk about this strange analysis by the isw and Us’s strategic ambiguity policy want to mention that if you you don’t need to 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us get the word out okay here here’s what I thought was really interesting from The Institute for the study of war that they are mad because the current lack of clarity about us restrictions of Ukraine’s use of us provided weapons to strike military Targets in Russian territory they say misses an opportunity what are they talking about well the the answer is that some Ukrainian officials are saying hey we’re mad because the US policy the United States said we can only strike Russian Targets in harke oblast right as they as and as those Russians mass and prepare to push into Ukrainian territory the US has said listen you can launch defensive strikes into Russian territory but only to stop this harke incursion and the ukrainians are like uh this is the policy and we think it sort of sucks right but when they asked the United States about for example launching strikes on a Russian Force preparing to invade across Sumo blast us officials said yeah cross the border listen to this weird phrasing the official says yes comma across the border for Russian attacks that are coming across comma where otherwise Russians would enjoy relative sanctuary if you think that’s weird and unclear that’s I think By Design right and the idea first off isw is like no the US must be totally clear and deter Russian preparations for offensive operations right and it must say Russians can’t operate anywhere but here’s here’s the thing with strategic ambiguity it dares your opponent to raise the stakes cuz you’re not sure right Russia’s not certain that they won’t be able to invade across sum oblast and here’s the nice thing about strategic ambiguity is that sometimes you can use it to Bluff right you can claim hey don’t invade s across suo blast we’ll smoke the hell out of all your guys like don’t do it it but sometimes you can do the opposite of a bluff you can make somebody call your bluff and find out you were telling the truth the whole time and I think that strategic ambiguity is something that both the US and frankly Ukraine want to preserve because what would be the worst case scenario for Russia the worst case Russian scenario would be to say I think the US is full of it I think they are only allowing strikes outside and that if we assemble an invasion Force across from sum oblast we will be able to uh push into Ukraine unimpeded right here’s or the Sumi region sorry kco blast excuse me sui is the is the Ukrainian um oblast and the worst case now for Russia would be to gather that Force get ready to drive across the border and boom get hit by a high Mars right learn the hard possible way that the US does actually allow strikes so that is the worst case scenario for Russia because it actually it the Russian invasion doesn’t happen and also the Russian military just got blowed up right so by preserving strategic ambiguity the US might deter Russia or even better they might actually kill a lot of Russians and also still not let Ukraine get invaded But that only works right if you’re not actually bluffing if if you really do authorize it and here’s the thing for the United States they likely are right because this is something where it’s obvious that you know they waited longer than they probably should have to uh allow Ukraine to strike these guys in harke so makes sense then that they’re not going to wait nearly as long and the us is going to be watching this border very carefully via satellite they are going to know if Russia begins to move or assemble troops they’ll likely have some sort of authorization that just requires just a a a check of a box from the president if it’s not already given so I think this strategic ambiguity is actually very much helpful to Ukraine who wants to preserve the ability to give Russia an unpleasant surp priz anyway guys that’s all I had thanks to the colonel tier members by the way we’re going to have a live stream tonight 8:00 p.m. answering your questions doing a tactical situation update we’re going to look at all the changes this week on the front line plus whatever questions you guys have so join us uh you should get notification right after this and thanks to everybody I’ll see you guys in the next one cheers

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Original Video:
https://deepstatemap.live/#10/50.1563/36.5534
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

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Original Video:
https://deepstatemap.live/#10/50.1563/36.5534
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

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