Strikes on Putin’s air defences put Crimea at risk | Matthew Savill

Strikes on Putin’s air defences put Crimea at risk | Matthew Savill

the military challenges that are around crime here I mean for starters ukrainians have got the benefit that they have been consistently targeting crime here for over a year now um with a mixture of their own drones and because it’s large Chumps out of the range of artillery that includes High Mars we’ve seen the tacoms used there and very prominently we see um cruise missiles provided by the West things like Storm Shadow use there and so they’ve got the benefit of from what we can tell having done some fairly significant damage to Russian air defenses which increases the chances of future attacks getting through and Ratchet up the the the the the tension on Russian forces in Crimea hello and welcome to Frontline for times radio I’m James Hansen and today we’re talking about the latest on the war in Ukraine and I’m delighted to be joined once again by Matthew savil director of military Sciences at the Royal United Services in insute Matthew always a pleasure welcome back thank you very much good afternoon well to begin with Matthew just just give me your latest assessment on the current state of the conflict well I mean what we’ve got at the moment is um a degree of kind of a a much more stabilized uh front line in the north uh the area around H uh where as you’ll be aware the the Russians have begun this sort of move to put pressure on the city and they’ve crossed the border and taken territory um but it does look like the ukrainians have at least temporarily been able to stabilize that um and that’s where they are benefiting from some of the changes uh in permissions to use uh International supplied uh weapons and equipment and far into Russia um although there is some ambiguity over exactly how far those constraints have been released so at the moment a lot of the talk has been around the use of the high Mars systems which is a guided mulle water rocket systems and they provided uh they’ve been provided by some of those by us a couple of other countries and they have some UK um variants and they’re able to use those now to strike Russian forces on the other side of the border and for what is known as counter battery fire so attacking enemy artillery um however there is some question as to whether or not they’re able to use the longer range attackers so tactical ballistic missiles um and the reason why that matters is because Dax uh got a range of up to 300 kilm and with those they’d be able to threaten some of the air bases that are further back in Russia from which both helicopters and Russian Jets uh launching bombs uh both against hard against ukraini Frontline forces that’s where they fight from do you think Matthew we’re already starting to see the impact of that decision a couple of weeks ago by the Americans I mean it’s interesting that Ukraine has already used High m missiles now on belgrad last week there are reports that Russia is moving some of its air defense systems from Crimea to belg blast is that a direct consequence do you think of of the decision by the Americans I mean it can be quite difficult to tell but certainly they are they are talking as if that counter battery effort um is at least providing them some relief from the particularly the shorter ranged Russian Artillery it does look like they still have issues um with Russian aircraft and as I said if if of the longer Range Systems that aren’t available to them that will still pose a challenge now they have also got a long range uh drone program um and they’ve been using that to strike a variety of targets and actually what’s interesting is that isn’t just confined to the north so going back 18 months now um they’ve been um trying to use those to disrupt Russian long range bomber aircraft that fly from a variety of bases across Russia what we’ve seen in the past week are a couple of attacks um which are more to the east of Ukraine um Reaching Across to some of the Russian regions around there there was a high-profile attack which appears to have at least damaged some of Russia’s new sc57 aircraft but they also attacked um air bases in North Atia and so it it’s interesting to see the ukrainians have still retained the ability to launch those sort of deeper strikes in a number of different directions I mean let’s say it is true and it is only a report of this stage that the Russians have been moving air defense systems from Crimea to to belgrad which would make sense what could the long-term implications of that be because you know Ukraine has been very consistent over recent months in targeting sites in Crimea even in the last few days there’s been again strikes on on Russian air defense assets in Crimea so if you’re moving air defense assets out of Crimea surely that that just increases the risk of of Crimea becoming weakened from a Russian perspective so Crimea is obviously hugely important to to both sides I mean partly symbolic uh importance but but also because of what it is as essentially the extension of the front line um and uh a a base from which the Russians have been able to launch uh attacks until now um from both aircraft and again helicopters and also as the base for the black SE Fleet now we’ve we’ve already seen the significant impact on saster Poole has forced the Black Sea Fleet to basically move out of the area and largely back to Nova bis and they’re being attacks there um as well um but by increasing the pressure on Crimea um the ukrainians are effectively you softening it up um for um what you know one of the areas what they might want to be looking at for for future offenses I think there’s there’s pros and cons not to that approach but to the the the military challenges that are around crime here I mean for starters ukrainians have got the benefit that they have been consistently targeting crimeia for over a year now um with a mixture of their own drones and uh because it’s large Chums out of the range of artillery that includes High Mars we’ve seen theams used there and very prominently we’ve seen um cruise missiles provided by the West things like Storm Shadow uh used there and so they’ve got the benefit of from what we can tell having done some fairly significant damage to Russian air defenses which increases the chances of future attacks getting through and ratch it up the the the the the tension on Russian forces in Crimea attacks also would allow them to potentially attack the Kur bridge and other links into Crimea um but the the the the challenges to this approach is that there is still if you like the land bridge the bit of crime that the Russians um captured uh in the initial advances that links it as well so even cutting the kurch bridge um which would put severe pressure on primia doesn’t eliminate the ability of the Russians to supply Prim rather me they’ve also got um feries those have been attacked recently so we can see this accumulative pressure building I think one of the problems will be is that it seems unlikely that this kind of deep strike long range attacks on their own will cause the Russians to abandon crier so one of the big issues will be is there the prospect at some point of UK Ukrainian forces along that front line being able to up the pressure there as well will they be able to maneuver through Russian defenses and seriously ref CRI because at that point then the the loss of um resupply lines um pressure on their headquarters um difficulty refueling their forces then begins to come to the fall that’s really interesting I mean how feasible do you think that might be Matthew well I think the way that we’re looking across the whole of the front this year is that it doesn’t seem likely that a a major Ukrainian if you like repeat of the counter offensive is on the cards they still got a lot of work to do to shore up their physical defenses to recruit personnel and to bring newly trained Personnel together with a still you know what required a fairly significant influx of uh material support from International Partners so that the recent supplemental for the US is only the start we’re seeing more pledges from other International Partners but in truth what they truly probably really want to do um is rebuild that Force for next year along with a fairly significant recruitment drive and they are still somewhat on the defensive in other parts of the country so if we’re looking at the bigger picture it does look like whilst the Russians are being pressured now in number of directions by the ukrainians as you say might be having to move air defenses around on the ground the pressure along that Eastern front and out of the dbats and from aiva is still there and so that looks like that is still focused on chivar because of how that would if captured potentially unlock further inroads and so there was a lot of uh speculation and I think good analysis that the hariv advance wasn’t really intended to capture the city it was intended to pressure the ukrainians so they in turn had to move some of their forces around to shore up their lines and there’s been so much talk about Ukraine’s air defense capacity over recent weeks and months and the need for Patriots Etc what about Russia I mean the fact they are having to reportedly move air defense systems from Crimea to belgrad suggests they’ve also got issues yes I mean they’ve got their air defenses in around sort of Russia proper as opposed to what they’ve lost in crime are probably still pretty significant and they can obviously move essentially weapons around on all of their interior line but one of the Striking things has been that although uh the success rate that the ukrainians appear to have had with some of their uh you know drone strikes has been very variable they are still getting through to some degree so they’ve had periodic attacks against uh Moscow very longrange Target um and not done serious damage um but that’s obviously of concern to the Russians the more recent attack on the Su 57s um which in theory should have been a you know well defended Target um will have um caused some consternation for the Russians I mean it hasn’t played a huge role in the conflict so far but as a Prestige Target um it it doesn’t look great when it’s basically taken out on the runway um there’s a question there about the extent to which the Russians have got physical defenses in place um many of the Ukrainian drones that we’re aware of don’t have large Warheads or penetrating Warheads We compare to something like Storm Shadow and some of these attacks could have been prevented by basic um physical defenses uh like aircraft shelters um and yet they keep having aircraft and helicopters caught out in the open so there are there there appear to be some challenges for them in terms of Defending that very very long if you like Frontier with Ukraine and the Ukrainian ability to get what in some cases are quite lowprofile drones through that they from what we’ve seen of what’s been recovered they’re using a combination of some relatively slow butell driven aircraft that are quite low profile and some shorter range but jet powered uh drones some of which if you like look like um converted Target drones basically wanted to ask you Matthew about some comments from the chief of Aviation and the Ukrainian Air Force he says f-16s could be stored outside of Ukraine to avoid them hit being hit by Russian strikes I mean on the face of it that seems entirely sensible what is your reading of that so it’s it’s been a factor in the war so far that in essence a significant proportion of the Ukrainian if you like Logistics chain is is actually one that sits outside the country and is coordinated by the international Partners in in getting material into the country um and that has given it a degree of protection from Russian direct strikes and there is obviously some suggestions from a number of countries now that the Russians are effectively trying a covert sabotage campaign um and that needs to be watched given their record of if you like subversion sabotage activity anyway um but that that external chain is kind of fundamentally protected at the moment by NATO deterrence um so you can see how the ukrainians might like some something similar to happen with s16s I think it will be an interesting um debate as to how people see the escalation risk if they think that those jets would be operated from other air bases um so if in essence you were flying strike missions from an air base in another country um a neighboring NATO member against Russian aircraft and then flying back to those bases um there would be a question of would that be sort of temp a Russian response because they would effectively be you know a talget like any other air base now it’s not clear if that was what was meant was if in essence they would uh they would move there as part of a leg before flying into Ukraine and then being operated um which will become a much more difficult environment and I think on that score this is another case where any any new capability is good if you’re Ukrainian uh but looking at the impact of things like f-16s or the Mirage jets that have been recently suggested by the French um they’re still going to be going into quite a difficult airto a and Russian groundbased air defense threat environment um where they’re going to you know face a lot of challenges so um those will help if you like particularly if the ukrainians can find novel ways to use them or to draw really Russian aircraft um but I think some of the aspirations for F-16 to you like turn the tide in the air are at the moment overoptimistic you mentioned the escalatory risk how would you assess that at the moment Matthew I mean it’s interesting we’ve had a Russian military plane reportedly violating Finnish airspace earlier this week we’ve had Russian and B Russian troops starting the second stage of tactical Nuclear drills is this more saber rattling or should we take the escalatory risk more seriously well I I think the escalation risk has always been taken seriously but um that doesn’t mean that uh the advantag has always been given to the the Russians in other words um they have uh used a lot of rhetoric that has been intended as signaling on several occasions their Bluff has been called um and I think the the approach of ratcheting things up that International backers have taken has largely speaking worked when you look at the aggregate um in terms of the scale of international support the casualties inflicted on the Russians has been enormous and all sorts of weapon systems have been provided I think there are there have and will continue to be question marks over the pace of the decision Mak so whilst it seems um possible that had all of this been done at once that would have uh like back in 2022 um the there’s a question of whether or not the Russians would have massively escalated at that point and actually the incremental approach has done to them what they’ve spent years doing to the West um the alternative is that at times if you’re Ukrainian you would legitimately argue it always feels like the support is a bit late and the decision that was inevitably going to be taken always seems to have been you know essentially a few months after that would have been ideal um I think that’s a roundabout way of saying I I think they’ll be looking at this quite closely mostly but what is interesting is we haven’t seen a massive Russian response to for example the high Mars use or attacks going into Crimea which for a long time some countries saw as tremendously controversial whereas the UK effectively once it provided Storm Shadow um did so with um no caveats inside Ukraine and now we see that debate play out again uh with some ambiguity some of which could plausibly be deliberate to keep the Russians G and just finally Matthew I mean it is interesting there are signs in recent weeks that maybe the West is starting to double down in its support for Ukraine once again it goes through phases I mean not only have we had uh the president of the European commission Ur Leon de liion saying the EU will send Ukraine 3.4 billion euros this summer she’s also talking potentially more significantly about actually starting accession talks now for Ukraine joining the EU and then on top of that we’ve also had the US saying it’s going to lift its ban on supplying weapons to the controversial as of Brigade very briefly because I know you’re tight for time just explain who the azov Brigade are and what the significance of supplying them may be well so I mean this is where you get to the sort of the heart of some of the the the counternarratives that are used so you know the Azel Brigade um has in the past been associated with with some of those more worrying elements in Ukraine with a sort of far right background and they are at front and center of the Russian Narrative of sort of napis Ukraine however they and Affiliated units were at the Hal of the very early defense around the ASAS steel Works um and we’re effectively of course lior and you know members of them have been across to the UK as part of um looking to to gather support so they sit at this sort of uh Nexus of claim and counter Claim about who is actually fighting for Ukraine what the Americans have done there is effectively they they have legislation that meets if they’re going to support you UNS and they have to assess that units likelihood of being involved in you know sort of Human Rights beaches and other egregious behavior and if they’re assessing that uh that that is not a risk um then it means that they can essentially be recipients of UK material support um and I think whilst the Russians will probably therefore cry foul out that um what the West will do is effectively argue that this is a demonstration of reforms and changes either side Ukraine um and the you know the the need to continue to support those Armed Forces um and I think that this is not again this is not a huge Force when compared with the scale of what we are talking about um but I I think it will go to the art of relations between International backers and the ukrainians that um they will seek to sort of try and counter those Russian claims Matthew savil always a appreciate your time thank you so much for joining us today on Frontline my C thank you for watching Frontline for times radio for more click subscribe on our YouTube channel you can listen to times radio and you can read more about the war in Ukraine and Global Security with your times digital subscription

Strikes on S-300 and S-400 missile systems in Crimea will soften up Putin’s defences as Russia is forced to relocate weapons to Belgorod says Matthew Savill Director of Military Sciences at the Royal United Services Institute.

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