Putin’s threats ‘will be catastrophic for Russia’ | British major analyses Russian military strategy

Putin’s threats ‘will be catastrophic for Russia’ | British major analyses Russian military strategy

I think Putin is a cold calculator I think his KGB training has stood him in exceptionally good stead um I think he’s not afraid to flex the power that he has even within his own private Circle uh I think he has approached strategy in a way that we didn’t quite understand in the west I think nobody thought that Russia actually would invade Ukraine on the scale that they have it caught out almost every academic I know who specializes in Russia the fact that he has committed to this lengthy War of Attrition I don’t think people saw the Russians having the will and and the uh you know the determination to see that through either um so I think Putin has he thinks long term he thinks strategically over time um and I think he he thinks in a way that we in the west have not especially well understood over the last few years the initial assault was just exceptionally poor planning you know a great example of that is the hosal airports Airborne raid uh where they essentially just flew planes in and tried to drop paratroopers the the way that we would do it there would be a combined air operation uh there would be suppression of enemy air defenses and only once the target area was cleared would he then come in and drop paratroopers uh whereas they just jumped straight to that that end that end phase of the operation so they just planned it and executed it really badly and the Ukrainian uh anti-tank training that they’ve been given was incredibly effective the javelin is a brilliant weapon and it showed it it showed its value in those first three days uh and I think we’re continuing to see uh poor operational planning from the Russians with khi being a really um a really good example of that they’ve literally just thrown bodies at the problem platoon after platoon after platoon just thrown against the Ukrainian lines designed to get them just to use up their ammunition with no regards to tactics or maneuver um but what they do have is a huge amount of uh Personnel that they can keep throwing at Ukrainian lines and that’s why it’s so important that we keep supplying Ukraine because Russia’s entire strategy seems designed around making them use up their ammunition and that’s why it’s taking as long as it is the the Russian strategy is clear they’re looking at putting pressure on the Ukrainian lines making them spread their Reserve thinly so that if there is a breakthrough they’re not in a position to to respond uh the ukrainians cly fighting a brave defensive battle um which has been successful particularly in the kiv offensive which just last week the the Americans were happy to say they were confident had now stalled and wouldn’t make any further progress um and as I understand it they’ve only made five miles of progress along two axis over the entire over the entire offensive which is for the for the cost of lives and material they’ve expended on that is is a really poor result for Russia I think the ability to strike targets now in in part of Russia’s rear area will be important because they now have to defend their rear areas um as well as uh defend their assets on the front lines and that’s going to put pressure on the Russian side of of production and and keeping their their assets safe um but I think Ukraine need to make sure they can keep recruiting you know I understand that is a problem for them um they’re going to need the numbers because it’s a war of attrition and it’s it’s ultimately going to come down to um who can afford to take the most losses I think Putin has set enough red lines that have been surpassed that we can attribute a degree of Bluster to to what he’s saying uh the most recent one was if you know Ukraine were allowed to strike into Russian rear areas with American weapons um meddev said that uh you know Russia would respond by arming America’s opponents in uh in unspecified countries um it’s it all seems a bit weak to me you know as escalation goes both ways Russia still have as much to lose from a nuclear war as we do uh and given the the state of the Russian military I would have concerns about about the state of their nuclear Arsenal as well I think a shooting match of a nuclear um nuclear kind is not something Russia want to be considering because because I suspect they would be deeply overmatched America is still indisputably the world’s only military superpower and taking NATO on militarily means taking on the USL and I don’t think even Putin is that stupid so he can make as many red lines as he likes but there is a limit to the amount he can reasonably escalate matters without it being catastrophic for Russia I think there’ll always been an inherent tension between Russia and China they’re ultimately fighting uh for influence in strategic uh competition in the same space so it’s an it’s it’s a friendship of convenience I suggest the Iranian Russian relationship is a lot more solid fight you know Iran are producing weapons uh drones and and ammunition for Russia in the fight in Ukraine uh but we are seeing an era of unprecedented strategic tension in the 1990s we assumed that it was the end of history and that liberal democracies would flourish and globalism and capitalism would would see the world come to peace and that has absolutely not paid out we took our our eyes off the ball between 2003 and 2021 as we were invading uh very countries in the world to to fight counter insury campaigns there and in that time our enemies have been planning and buying influence if you look at China’s belt and Road initiative they they’re dominating uh influence around the world Russia has been uh conducting operations in Georgia Ukraine in 2014 and then Ukraine again in the recent Invasion uh they’re looking to establish their power and influence over there near abroad and Iran is looking at you know hegemony in the uh in the Middle East so this era of strategic competition is very much us against them but there is also a bit of strategic friction between them their allies of convenience not allies of uh of will or or intent it’s been a key component part of Russia’s strategy to degrade Western will to fight uh they are actively targeting our media they’re actively targeting our politicians um and the the flow of disinformation you still see it repeated constantly like Ukrainian Nazis and the a of Battalion and all that all that nonsense uh people credibly believe it um it’s a very very powerful thing uh and it’s you know it’s absolutely something that Russia are going to keep try and do Israel Gaza is showing us the power of disinformation as we speak um there’s so much incorrect information flowing about that conflict and of course it’s all part of the same axis Iran Russia China they’re all on the same team effectively um and they all use the same subversive techniques to to try and undermine Western democracies using our own freedom of speech against us you know this wouldn’t work in Russia or China or Iran because they don’t allow that free passage of information they’ve taken what we see as one of our strengths the fact that people are free to to say what they want and they’re using it against us so I think you know we can we can absolutely count on this sea of subversive disinformation being a factor that we have to include in all planning uh strategically and politically uh from now on and into the future I mean maintenance of morale is a um a principle of war that the British army teaches from from the first week of Officer training um our entire Doctrine when we fight is designed at shattering the enemies will in cohesion um so the the the benefits of morale and and the importance of moral can’t really be understated and it’s only natural in a war of severe attrition um uh that that morale is going to take a hit if you’re seeing your friends dying on a daily weekly monthly basis that that is going to hurt your morale um and especially as Ukraine doesn’t have a huge number of Wis to chalk up at the moment hopefully the the stalling of the KH offensive will will give the Ukrainian armed forces that that boost of of effectively a really good win against the Russians uh but it’s you know it’s this grinding War of Attrition and the nearest thing we can compare it to is the first world war where anyone who served in the trenches and wrote uh you know a memoir afterwards spoke about how miserable it was uh the living conditions the constant artillery barges it will naturally degrade soldiers um so that’s a real challenge um but you know we’re in a war of will now so Ukraine have to make sure that their cohesion and will to fight is maintained I think it’s been a shame that we weren’t able to give Ukraine everything they needed right at the start I think the the drip feed of Western support has definitely caused them operational issues um but I think it’s just vital that we in the west Double Down increase our arms production get what we can to Ukraine and of course start building up our own stocks uh in you know for any potential future Russian threat that’s going to need to be something we’re very alive to and that we haven’t been recently and and need to get a grip of you know the British army has trained thousands of ukrainians that has been an enormous commitment from the UK towards Ukraine uh I don’t see really what more we could have done with what we had at the time pretty much every bit of spare stock we’ve got has has gone East um but it does highlight how under underere equipped and underprepared the British army is I have genuine concerns about the last defense review which I think cuts into the bone not down to the bone into the bone um the Army is burning red hot at the moment uh we we’ve got people spread all around the world delivering training missions uh and yet we don’t have a a properly Deployable full Armored Division uh that we could that we could deploy into Europe in short not should we need to and that to me is deeply concerning um so I think there’s a lot of a lot of work needs doing for whoever is you know whoever’s in Parliament after after after the next general election defense isn’t urgent need to fix and and two and a half% won’t cut it President Biden is fighting a a domestic battle on a couple of fronts as well as uh as well as uh you know trying to trying to properly support Ukraine it’s it’s really tricky line for him we’re seeing that with his his stance on Israel how he’s having to Plate his own voters um and we we’re seeing the troubles he’s had in Congress trying to get the aid packages through for Ukraine so you know he his cautiousness I think is is a result of the political limitations that are placed on him by his own by his own legislature also escalation is a game that we have to play carefully with we can’t just throw uh you know American weapons into Russia um to the maximum extent because that is a huge escalatory step that might well see a Russian escalation and response that is within their bounds so there is there is still a very fine line to trade here there’s still a place for diplomacy um and there’re still a place to make sure that Ukraine can do what they need to do uh without trying to uh without trying to overstep lines that Russia might actually decide they want to enforce

“There is a limit to the amount Putin can reasonably escalate matters without it being catastrophic for Russia.”

Major Andrew Fox analyses Russia’s military strategy in the war in Ukraine.

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