Hezbollah poses bigger risk to Israel than Hamas on Oct. 7, analyst says • FRANCE 24 English

Hezbollah poses bigger risk to Israel than Hamas on Oct. 7, analyst says • FRANCE 24 English

tonight as ceasefire talks continue we’re focusing on concerns that the war in Gaza could spiral into a wider regional conflict earlier today Israel said it would soon decide whether to launch an offensive in Lebanon where it has clashed with the iran-backed group Hezbollah for months now those clashes have intensified in recent days with Munitions coming over the border into Northern Israel and sparking brush fires there this Wednesday Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country was prepared for what he called intense action in the north and that security would be restored one way or another France 24 Eliza Herbert reports on a visit to Israel’s border with Lebanon prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered strong [Music] words we are prepared for a very intense operation in the north one way or another we will restore security to the north his trip to the northern city of kirat Shimona came after the region was engulfed in forest fires earlier this week when hezb strikes hit an area of hot dry and windy conditions leading to the evacuation of several residents the city however has been largely empty for the last 8 months due to regular fire between Israeli troops and iran-backed Hezbollah fighters on both sides of the Border tens of thousands of people have fled their homes in what has been the worst conflict between Israel and Hezbollah since they went to to war in 2006 according to AFP at least 455 people have been killed in Lebanon including 88 civilians and the Israeli Army has said at least 14 of their soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed since October netanyahu’s words come at a time when crossb fighting has been intensifying and just a day after the chief of the Israel Defense Force said the Army was approaching a decision Point heah has increased its attacks in recent days and we are prepared after a very good process of training up to the level of a general staff exercise to move to an offensive in the north with the situation becoming increasingly untenable the US has said Washington does not want to see an allout War meanwhile Human Rights Watch released a report on Wednesday accusing Israel of violating international law with the widespread use of white phosphorus in southern Lebanon which could put civilians at risk and the Diplomatic service of the European Union said they are concerned about the evergrowing destruction and forced displacement of civilians on both sides of the border and for more in this story I’m joined by Stephen cook a senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations thanks so much for being with us here on France 24 what are the chances in your view that this could spiral into an allout war between Israel and Hezbollah like we saw in 2006 oh I think the chances are very very high that this is going to happen and that’s why you see the Israelis preparing uh in the north they simply uh cannot live with Hezbollah up on uh the Israeli border for fear of one uh an October 7th style attack on Israeli border communities that really up are right on the border and two uh Hezbollah has been using Munitions that um uh end up deep into Israeli territory making the northern part of Israel uninhabitable so uh absent a diplomatic initiative that would solve this problem and push hisbah back beyond the Lani River uh which is some miles north of uh the uh Lebanese Israel border the Israelis vowed to take uh military action to push Hezbollah back we are as the Israeli Chief of Staff said getting close to that moment well so a Hezbollah leader told the broadcaster El jazer yesterday that the group does not want a full-blown War but at the same time asserting that it’s prepared for one how equipped is Hezbollah for a full out war with Israel I think you should take it with a grain of salt when HB says it doesn’t want a full out War given how often they have been firing on Israeli positions um since October 8th but nevertheless um this is a a very different kind of conflict that the Israelis would be fighting given the um large store of rockets and missiles and precision Munitions that Hezbollah has some estimates are between 100,000 and 150,000 rockets and missiles that could reach all parts of Israel um so this would be something that would um certainly pose a a general risk to the Israeli public in the same way that October 7th as horrific as it was did not pose a risk to the broader Israeli public but do you think that the war in Gaza is playing into that that response from Hezbollah meaning you know Hezbollah is looking at the destruction in Gaza and saying to itself it doesn’t want the same result in Lebanon well certainly part of the Israeli strategy in Gaza and the Israeli strategy in the north up to this point is to do as much damage as possible to send a message to hezbollah’s leaders um certainly um the images coming out of uh out of Gaza as well as the damage that the Israelis have done already to hisbah infrastructure along um along the border um one would think has already given the hisbah leadership some pause but at this conflict has continued Hezbollah has grown Bolder and Bolder in its attacks on Israel and as I said um firing deeper and deeper into Israeli territory well so meanwhile ceasefire talks continue you to bring a pause to the fighting in Gaza under terms that were outlined by President Biden last Friday but it’s a bit confusing because President Biden has said this was an Israeli proposal and and Netanyahu has has made some conflicting statements statements about it so given all of that from your Viewpoint do you think that the two sides can can come to an agreement here well I don’t think that there’s really any basis uh for an agreement um and it’s important to recognize that after the president’s speech White House officials were at pains to uh make it clear that this was the uh White House’s interpretation of an Israeli proposal and that’s where you get the difference between what the president said and what the Israelis say they believe they have agreed to and that is that the Israelis believe in between phase one and phase two of this plan that the president outlined they would retain the right uh to continue to prosecute military operations to destroy Hamas uh that was something that I think President Biden left purposefully ambiguous to put pressure on the Israeli government of course um Hamas um wants a the from phase one there to be a ceasefire that is durable thus Hamas uh lives to fight another day uh that’s something that the Israelis can’t agree upon so uh credit uh to uh CIA director Bill Burns and his counterparts in Egypt and and and qar but there doesn’t really seem to be a basis for a ceasefire if the Israelis insist that they must continue their military operations to destroy Hamas and Hamas insists that it will not be destroyed and the and and its condition for a ceasefire is that Israel withdraw completely from the Gaza Strip uh for a durable durable cation of hostilities in an interview with Time Magazine President Biden seemed to suggest that that Benjamin Netanyahu could be prolonging the war for his own political survival that’s quite a striking admission given the White House’s ongoing military support for Israel what would a ceasefire or an end to the war mean for Benjamin Netanyahu well it depends on how the war ends of course uh I I think what the president was getting at was the fact that um Prim Minister netanyahu’s um Partners on the extreme right who control 14 seats in the keset have said that they would bolt uh from the government if uh if he agreed to the deal as outlined by President Biden which of course then if this government Falls would leave prime minister Netanyahu actually in legal Jeopardy over a corruption case going back uh a number of years that’s I think the the most generous interpretation of what President Biden was getting at in that interview with Time Magazine if of course the conflict comes to an end where the Israelis have killed Yahya sinir The Mastermind behind October 7 and have actually made it um difficult for Hamas to threaten Israel’s Security in the same way that it did on October 7th um that would be beneficial for everyone and certainly beneficial for prime minister nany’s political fortunes which actually have been rising recently I guess one of the big unanswered questions is is what happens after this war is over the desire expressed widely by the US and the EU is for a two-state solution but you have some hardliners in the Israeli government suggesting an occupation of Gaza I think we should we broaden it and not just look at of course Hamas which is the major political actor in Palestinian politics attacked Israel because they are one Staters uh their goal was to liberate all of Palestine from north to south not just the liberation of the Gaza Strip for the West Bank uh so you do have extremists on both sides who have their own plans and certainly the uh nany’s Partners on the right um have um made the argument that settlement of the Gaza Strip is the best way to secure uh Israel they point out to the fact that in between 1967 and 2005 when Israel did occupy the Gaza Strip uh Israel didn’t have these types of security problems that’s a more potent political argument now than it was arguably on October 6th and that’s why you start you’re seeing more and more support for it within Israel although still a minority a larger number than one might expect okay we’ll have to leave it there Stephen cook senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations thanks so much for joining us here on France 24 my pleasure and that’s it for now stay tuned for more world news till to come here on France 24

Israel says it will soon decide whether to launch an offensive in Lebanon, where it has clashed with the Iran-backed group Hezbollah for months. Steven A. Cook, a senior fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, tells FRANCE 24’s Monte Francis that Hezbollah’s large stores of rockets, missiles and precision munitions pose an even bigger threat to the general Israeli public than the actions of Hamas on October 7, 2023.
#Israel #Hezbollah #Hamas

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