Keys to victory: Missouri State looks to endure tough road environment at Northern Iowa’s dome

The Missouri State Bears’ Jacob Clark looks for an open receiver against visiting Indiana State University at Plaster Stadium on October 19, 2024. Clark threw for 379 yards and three touchdowns as the Bears beat Indiana State 46-21. (Photo by Bruce Stidham)

There have been two constants for Northern Iowa football since the turn of the millennium: Mark Farley and a sizable offensive front.

The 24-year UNI head coach often features some of the finest big men in the Football Championship Subdivision, and his latest potential pro is 6-foot-7, 310-pound senior Jared Penning.

Until recent years, there was another constant for the Missouri Valley Football Conference charter member: Beating Missouri State.

UNI leads the all-time series 36-8, but the trend began to shift following MSU’s hire of acclaimed play-caller Bobby Petrino. In his regime’s first meeting with the 10th-ranked Panthers in the COVID-19-delayed 2020 season, the Bears came away with a rare 13-6 upset win at the UNI-Dome. MSU would beat a ranked UNI team a second consecutive time, 34-27 in Springfield, before securing a postseason berth.

In 2022, the final year of the Petrino regime, UNI handled the Bears 41-20 at the UNI-Dome, but when son-in-law and defensive coordinator Ryan Beard was ultimately given the reins following Petrino’s departure (he’s currently the offensive coordinator at Arkansas), MSU upset the 15th-ranked Panthers 35-16 at Plaster Stadium in 2023.

Beating UNI — a program with 13 FCS playoff appearances in the past 23 seasons — in three of the past four meetings has conveyed the upward trajectory of MSU football.

So does its current five-game win streak.

The 18th-ranked Bears (5-2, 3-0 MVFC) take their longest string of wins since 1996 into Cedar Falls, Iowa, on Saturday to face a swooning edition of the Panthers (2-5, 0-3 MVFC) celebrating homecoming.

“When we beat them (in the COVID-delayed season) and held them to two field goals, you’d think it was gold-medal status because everyone was saying ‘We won in the UNI-Dome. We beat UNI.’ There was some shock to our staff,” Beard reflected Monday.

“But when you delve into the history of these two programs, they’ve slugged it back and forth. I know before we got here they got the best of us quite a few times, but I like to think we’ve changed the trajectory the last 5-6 years, and we plan to continue to do the same.”

With Missouri State making the jump to the Football Bowl Subdivision and Conference USA in 2025, Saturday marks the end of a longtime conference relationship with the school up north.

“Western (Illinois) is gone. Eastern (Illinois) is gone. Missouri State is gone. We were the originals that started this league that grew into the Gateway and then to the MVFC,” Farley said at a press conference on Monday. “The Bears, it goes back to the 1990s when both teams were title (contenders). It didn’t matter if the game was down there or up here, they were great games. Terry Allen coached seven years down there … (this game) is more significant to Panther fans because we are more relatable to the Bears than any other program we play.”

Here are three keys to victory for Missouri State, an 8.5-point favorite, according to the betting website Fan Duel.

A win on Saturday would give the Bears their first six-game winning streak since 1990.

Endure the atmosphere

The UNI-Dome has historically been a tough place to play (Missouri State is 1-11 at the venue since 2000) but there may be more pent-up energy on Saturday than usual. Considering the Panthers haven’t played at home since Sept. 7 after a brutal five-game road stretch and return to a more familiar and comfortable setting amid homecoming spirit, it will likely provide a much-needed boost. Five-game losing streaks are rare at UNI, but so was its especially arduous slate. The skid includes a pair of losses to FBS squads Nebraska and Hawaii, two-time FCS defending national champion South Dakota State and fellow nationally ranked teams South Dakota and North Dakota. Each loss was a rout.

Missouri State will likely be in its toughest road environment since falling 29-24 at Montana in Week 1. The Bears will need to continue to play clean (only 12 penalties committed in Valley play) and with the sort of locked-in road focus that helped MSU throttle a ranked Illinois State team 41-7 two weeks ago.

Though it returned just nine of 22 starters, UNI may also be carrying a feeling of payback. Missouri State’s late-season upset of the Panthers last year in Springfield appears to be the straw that broke the camel’s back with the FCS playoff committee, which didn’t select the Panthers as an at-large team despite carrying a No. 15 ranking two weeks before the regular season ended.

Let ‘er rip

UNI is yielding 28 points a game and has just three forced turnovers to its name, ranking 120th in the FCS. What an opportunity for one of the country’s most prolific passers in Jacob Clark (321 yards per game, 16 TDs), who mans a 16th-rated offense (426 yards per game) that appears to make strides each week.

A year ago, Clark’s backup, Jordan Pachot, passed for more than 300 yards in a win over UNI. If Clark gets time, he’s more than capable of his sixth-consecutive 300-yard game. UNI’s sacks (0.7 per game) and pressure statistics are nothing special, but they’re hard to gauge considering the quality of teams they’ve played that often boast very strong offensive fronts.

Run-stuffing Bears

UNI, which averages just 12.7 points a game, is back to a more physical brand of football after tossing it around the yard more than usual under former offensive coordinator Bodie Reeder (now at Middle Tennessee State).

Fortunately for Missouri State, its run defense appears to elevate each week, holding Indiana State to 2.5 yards a carry last week after absolutely disconcerting Illinois State’s capable offense on Oct. 12.

The Bears could be in for a formidable test on Saturday with tough-running Tye Edwards (501 rushing yards) operating behind the likes of Penning, but the senior was mostly held in check against the top-tier Valley teams.