Moldova’s pro-European president won a decisive victory, but lasting stability and EU integration will hinge on urgent reforms and the 2025 parliamentary election. From CEPA.

For years, Moldova has stood at the fault line in Europe’s standoff with Russia. President Maia Sandu’s hard-won re-election against Alexandr Stoianoglo is a vital step forward for Moldova’s European ambitions, yet it is only the beginning of a long and complex journey.

Amid economic vulnerabilities, entrenched governance issues, and allegations of Russian interference, Sandu’s administration must now turn victory into action if Moldova is to secure democratic stability, push back against Moscow’s influence, and move closer to integration into the European Union. The true test lies in the 2025 parliamentary elections, where Moldova’s pro-European path could be consolidated.

Sandu’s win, with 55% of the vote, reflects Moldova’s pro-European commitment but came against a backdrop of cyber threats, foreign interference, and reports of vote-buying. These efforts were supported by a steady stream of disinformation that painted EU integration as a pathway to hardship and conflict, exploiting Moldova’s economic insecurities to sway voters.

In her victory speech, Sandu celebrated Moldova’s resilience but acknowledged the threats still facing its democratic path and called for unity against “hostile forces from outside the country.” Her administration now faces the challenge of enacting reforms that resonate with all Moldovans, particularly in rural areas where Russia’s influence remains deep.

Despite the EU being Moldova’s main trading partner, many in these communities still view Russia as their primary economic lifeline – a perception Moscow reinforces through its manipulation of the media. In response, the EU has launched a 1.8 billion-euro Growth Plan to strengthen Moldova’s economy, drive key reforms, and bring the country closer to Europe.

For Sandu, turning her victory into lasting change will require the delivery of tangible benefits that can counter Moscow’s pull in Moldova’s most vulnerable regions and help boost the pro-European vote.

“As long as Moldova remains a parliamentary republic rather than a presidential one, the greatest risk to its European accession path isn’t an anti-EU president but an anti-EU parliament,” said Mihai Avram, a public policy and development consultant.

The results suggest two worrying possible scenarios in the 2025 parliamentary elections, Avram said. Sandu’s party could find itself in opposition, allowing a leftist, pro-Russian government to take power, or a fragile pro-European coalition could emerge, with the liberal Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) alongside two ostensibly pro-European parties, Partidul Nostru and MAN, both of which have a questionable commitment to the West.

“The leader of Partidul Nostru is a former Moldovan-Russian oligarch who accumulated wealth through contracts with Russian state railway companies,” Avram said, highlighting the problem. “Meanwhile, MAN’s leader, former Communist Party figure Ivan Ceban, has direct connections to the Russian FSB.”

Sandu’s PAS must urgently address Moldova’s structural challenges – judicial independence, anti-corruption, and economic stability – if it is to rebuild public trust, strengthen its mandate, and forestall the return of pro-Russian or populist challengers.

Moldova’s judiciary has long suffered from political interference, eroding confidence and weakening the integrity of the legal system. Aligning with EU standards will require PAS to implement safeguards that protect judicial independence and uphold the rule of law.

The case of Veaceslav Platon, an oligarch who voted in London in the election’s first round despite unresolved allegations of financial crimes, has left many Moldovans frustrated and disillusioned. For them, Platon’s participation is a reminder of the work still needed to ensure Moldova’s justice system operates fairly and impartially for all.

Tackling corruption is equally essential. Although PAS was elected in 2021 on a strong anti-corruption platform, progress has been modest, with entrenched interests and systemic challenges slowing reform.

Corruption remains a pervasive issue in state institutions, deterring foreign investment, stifling economic growth, and undermining effective governance. To meet public expectations, the administration must commit to transparent, high-profile investigations and hold influential figures accountable.

This approach would begin to dismantle long-standing networks of impunity, set a powerful example, and reinforce the credibility of Moldova’s pro-European agenda. Real progress on anti-corruption is crucial not only for rebuilding public trust but also proving Moldova is serious about aligning with EU standards and establishing a resilient democratic state.

The fragile economy, already strained by inflation and a difficult post-COVID recovery, also requires targeted policies that promote job creation and sustainable growth. For PAS, investing in development projects that directly benefit under-served communities is crucial to demonstrate the practical advantages of EU alignment and build trust among skeptical voters.

The Moldovan diaspora played a pivotal role in Sandu’s victory, with a record turnout of more than 300,000 votes cast from abroad. To keep this critical base engaged, PAS will also need to develop strategies that keep diaspora members informed and invested.

Digital platforms and virtual town halls could help, deepening the sense of ownership over the country’s trajectory. The diaspora has been a reliable force in Moldova’s pro-European movement, providing both financial backing and international advocacy. Sustaining this relationship will be crucial.

For the EU, supporting Moldova’s path is not only an opportunity to bolster a fragile democracy but also a way to reinforce regional stability. The EU’s assistance in institutional reform, anti-corruption, and economic resilience will be crucial to countering the Kremlin’s influence.

Establishing a roadmap with clear milestones – from securing rule of law to achieving economic stability – will reinforce Moldova’s commitment to EU standards, while transparency and accountability will be essential for building domestic and international confidence.

Sandu’s re-election offers hope, but it is just the beginning of a long journey toward Europe. Her administration must work to unify the country, implement critical reforms, and strengthen its defenses against external threats.

Every step forward is a move in a broader geopolitical struggle. The hybrid war Moldova faces is a reminder that stability, security, and prosperity require vigilance, resolve, and robust support from both its own citizens and international allies.

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Anda Bologa is an independent expert on AI and digital policy, Central European foreign policy, and transatlantic affairs. She was a Denton Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), where this article was originally published. Reprinted with permission.

Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.