[OC] Relationship between Share of Private Early Childhood Education and Fertility Rate for Lithuania

Posted by trikunas

2 comments

  1. Sources:

    * Eurostat (educ_uoe_enrp01, tps00199)

    Tools:

    * R + ggplot2

  2. In Lithuania recently there was some discussion on declining birth rates which are among the lowest in the EU. Inspired by a recent [gattsu’s video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tG2OQsT8eGU) I decided to take a look at fertility rates and specifically at the relationship between “**Fertility and Parental Financial Investment**”. I decided to use the **Share of Children going to ‘Private Early Childhood Education’ as a proxy metric for Cost of Raising a Child to Parents**, either due to lack of free/cheap public alternatives or parents trying to give their children the best possible start at a personal financial cost.

    **The inflection point for Lithuanian Fertility Rates seems to have happened in 2016** (and inspecting visually, some other countries as well), and has been on a downward trend ever since, so much so, that **Lithuania had the largest yearly decrease in Fertility Rates since 2016 in the EU.** While at the same time the EU rate pretty level at the same time.

    Any suggestions why that could have been the case? What changed? Brexit?

    My main 2 working hypotheses are **1) public under-investment in day cares forces parents to spend more money on private daycares which are costly so they have fewer kids** and **2) due to high income inequality parents try to one-up each other by sending their kids to ‘a better kindergarten’ to boost their future success chances**. Probably a combination of of the two.

    **CONTEXT -** Why I chose Share of Private Early Education as a Proxy Metric for Cost of Raising a Child for Families:

    In Lithuania Public Kindergartens/Daycare are funded by the state and are mostly ~free, might cost ~50 Euros per kid for food and entertainment, while private kindergartens also get funding from the state for each kid, but they also charge extra ~500+ for each kid (there is no set upper price as far as I know, average net salary is ~1300), which often means private options can afford better service. Many parents would happily send their kids to a public daycare but can’t, especially in the Capital, where there is not enough availability for all willing to attend the public daycares. While others want to send their kids to the ‘best’ kindergartens, ‘best’ schools, etc. to improve their academic performance chances in the future, see recent [gattsu’s video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tG2OQsT8eGU) which inspired me to take a look at the data in the first place.

    If anyone studies the subject professionally, would love to hear your insights, what could be some other reasons why the fertility rate could be declining in Lithuania faster than pretty much in any other Country?

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