There’s a reasonable explanation for this. The cut off date for Oscars consideration in 31st December of previous year. Films considered “Oscar contenders” are released just before the awards season begins in winter, ensuring their impact remains fresh in the minds of judges and audiences. Movies released in January and February are often forgotten by the next awards cycle.
Note 1 : I considered data from last 50 years. Because first few Oscars were held during May. And I want to eliminate effect of major wars (WW2/Korean/Vietnam) and Academy rule changes.
For example during war times the war movies could have out sized sway over public and jury’s mind.
And also because 50 is a nice round number.
Note 2 : This is US release time. As Oscar rules require that Best movie contender has to be released in LA by December 31 and must be played for at at least 7 days.
Alternatively movies most likely to win Oscars are released in December. They run the festival circuit long before that.
As a nitpck, doesn’t this visualization really suggest something more like “Oscar-winning movies are more likely to have been released in December” rather than “Movies released in December are more likely to win Oscars”?
(I mean, that latter statement may well be true, but it’s not quite what this data speaks to, right?)
Nah, Oscar winning movies are more likely to be released in December
Which date do you use as the release date? Many movies premiere long before they release
It’s a useful chart, just curious
Correlation does not equal causation
did you know that 90% of base rate errors are made by right handed people?
Could also be recency effect. Movies released closer to the Oscars, especially those with buzz, are more like.y to be remembered by the Academy Award voters.
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There’s a reasonable explanation for this. The cut off date for Oscars consideration in 31st December of previous year. Films considered “Oscar contenders” are released just before the awards season begins in winter, ensuring their impact remains fresh in the minds of judges and audiences. Movies released in January and February are often forgotten by the next awards cycle.
Note 1 : I considered data from last 50 years. Because first few Oscars were held during May. And I want to eliminate effect of major wars (WW2/Korean/Vietnam) and Academy rule changes.
For example during war times the war movies could have out sized sway over public and jury’s mind.
And also because 50 is a nice round number.
Note 2 : This is US release time. As Oscar rules require that Best movie contender has to be released in LA by December 31 and must be played for at at least 7 days.
PS : Also wrote about this on Medium: [https://medium.com/@RajLnk/the-golden-month-for-oscars-e25f12e4720c](https://medium.com/@RajLnk/the-golden-month-for-oscars-e25f12e4720c)
Ya that’s when all the Oscar movies drop
Alternatively movies most likely to win Oscars are released in December. They run the festival circuit long before that.
As a nitpck, doesn’t this visualization really suggest something more like “Oscar-winning movies are more likely to have been released in December” rather than “Movies released in December are more likely to win Oscars”?
(I mean, that latter statement may well be true, but it’s not quite what this data speaks to, right?)
Nah, Oscar winning movies are more likely to be released in December
Which date do you use as the release date? Many movies premiere long before they release
It’s a useful chart, just curious
Correlation does not equal causation
did you know that 90% of base rate errors are made by right handed people?
Could also be recency effect. Movies released closer to the Oscars, especially those with buzz, are more like.y to be remembered by the Academy Award voters.
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