Hi all! I did an analysis of Tesla’s stock returns since Trump’s inauguration. There has been a lot of smoke about its decline, but I wanted to do a more rigorous analysis that compared it to the market and peers.
So hard to predict because it’s such a meme stock. Gotta think Musk going full right wing gives some bump because of the current administration, but it is being overwhelmed by the deterioration of the brand value as former customers who were environmentally minded and thus likely left wing now see the car brand as a right wing political statement.
Also the brand is so tied to Musks involvement, can’t be good that he is so publicly focusing on something else for most of his time.
The big 7 would be a great comparison because they ran together. Peers doesn’t mean much because they are mostly zombies.
Made by subtracting actual from predicted? How good are your predictions normally and at extremes?
Abnormal as compared to what time period? If your max lookback is Nov 2024…
turns out it matters what your customers think
For the Tesla evaluation to continue, it was well above its peers, Tesla had to maintain sales and positive cash flow. If you assume that the stock was pricing in future growth based on self driving taxis, robotics and AI, then it had to keep positive cash flow to realize the R&D. With sales slump, that future growth becomes an uncertainty and the stock would have to pull back to price in the uncertainty.
If they shore up their finances and can demonstrate positive cash flow their stock could go up again. The problem is their factories are fixed costs and the drop of sales in the EU will be a drag on their cash flow. In addition, the Tesla AI investment is also cash intensive, buying and running GPUs is an expensive endeavor.
I have not looked at their balance sheets, and this is based on the news articles about Tesla. I don’t own or plan to own any Tesla stock.
Expand the period to 6m. Notice the rise at election and the fall back to normal levels of today.
Tessla is still way overpriced when you compare it to other car manufacturers. But Musk is quickly destroying his company with all his questionable decisions. I genuinly thought that Elon was an intelligent and good person in the past, but drugs combined with money/power and narcissistic behavior results in bad decisions and people spending their money elsewhere. Last year alot of top executives left the company, probably because of Musk using his veto to continue with his side-hobby-projects like robot, robotaxi and cybertruck. If this continues, Tesla will continue this downward spiral, it should focus on building a great EV for the masses, before it is completely eclipsed by their rivals.
I mean it’s not even a big swing by Tesla standards its still above 200…, 400->90->400 is normal TSLA behavior. Like 15% only the 11th largest one day loss TSLA has taken.
So based on the information in the graphs am I right in saying that elon is getting pegged to death?
Not enough to every single one of the fascist idiots companies are out of business.
They’re losing market-share three ways. Their old competitors are delivering better options. Their new Chinese competitors are also delivering great options. And people don’t want to be associated with Musk, so even if they wouldn’t have bought a competitor based solely on competition reasons, they will do it for boycott reasons.
Every country will have a different mix of these three reasons.
There’s one problem I see with your approach, OP. Reading the blog post, you essentially contrast Tesla with the larger market (S&P500) and its (EV manufacturing) peers, correct? The latter one could call Tesla’s “fundamental” peers, but there’s another type I’d like to see added to the equation though, let’s call them “technical” peers.
How does the outcome change if you abstract away from Tesla being an EV manufacturer, and purely look at it as an extremely fast rising, possibly overvalued stock. There should be plenty of other candidates for that peer category (nvidia comes to mind, for example).
To be fair, prior to this there was a massive pump. I’d be interested to see this exact chart over a 6 month horizon rather (or even YTD)
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Hi all! I did an analysis of Tesla’s stock returns since Trump’s inauguration. There has been a lot of smoke about its decline, but I wanted to do a more rigorous analysis that compared it to the market and peers.
I leveraged a methodology called an Event Study to do so, and found that the post-inauguration stock slump is statistically significant at the 0.01 level. [Click here to read more](https://www.statswithsasa.com/2025/03/12/teslas-statistically-significant-post-inauguration-slump/) about my methodology and the analysis!
Source: Nasdaq
Tools: R, ggplot
So hard to predict because it’s such a meme stock. Gotta think Musk going full right wing gives some bump because of the current administration, but it is being overwhelmed by the deterioration of the brand value as former customers who were environmentally minded and thus likely left wing now see the car brand as a right wing political statement.
Also the brand is so tied to Musks involvement, can’t be good that he is so publicly focusing on something else for most of his time.
The big 7 would be a great comparison because they ran together. Peers doesn’t mean much because they are mostly zombies.
Made by subtracting actual from predicted? How good are your predictions normally and at extremes?
Abnormal as compared to what time period? If your max lookback is Nov 2024…
turns out it matters what your customers think
For the Tesla evaluation to continue, it was well above its peers, Tesla had to maintain sales and positive cash flow. If you assume that the stock was pricing in future growth based on self driving taxis, robotics and AI, then it had to keep positive cash flow to realize the R&D. With sales slump, that future growth becomes an uncertainty and the stock would have to pull back to price in the uncertainty.
If they shore up their finances and can demonstrate positive cash flow their stock could go up again. The problem is their factories are fixed costs and the drop of sales in the EU will be a drag on their cash flow. In addition, the Tesla AI investment is also cash intensive, buying and running GPUs is an expensive endeavor.
I have not looked at their balance sheets, and this is based on the news articles about Tesla. I don’t own or plan to own any Tesla stock.
Expand the period to 6m. Notice the rise at election and the fall back to normal levels of today.
Tessla is still way overpriced when you compare it to other car manufacturers. But Musk is quickly destroying his company with all his questionable decisions. I genuinly thought that Elon was an intelligent and good person in the past, but drugs combined with money/power and narcissistic behavior results in bad decisions and people spending their money elsewhere. Last year alot of top executives left the company, probably because of Musk using his veto to continue with his side-hobby-projects like robot, robotaxi and cybertruck. If this continues, Tesla will continue this downward spiral, it should focus on building a great EV for the masses, before it is completely eclipsed by their rivals.
I mean it’s not even a big swing by Tesla standards its still above 200…, 400->90->400 is normal TSLA behavior. Like 15% only the 11th largest one day loss TSLA has taken.
So based on the information in the graphs am I right in saying that elon is getting pegged to death?
Not enough to every single one of the fascist idiots companies are out of business.
They’re losing market-share three ways. Their old competitors are delivering better options. Their new Chinese competitors are also delivering great options. And people don’t want to be associated with Musk, so even if they wouldn’t have bought a competitor based solely on competition reasons, they will do it for boycott reasons.
Every country will have a different mix of these three reasons.
There’s one problem I see with your approach, OP. Reading the blog post, you essentially contrast Tesla with the larger market (S&P500) and its (EV manufacturing) peers, correct? The latter one could call Tesla’s “fundamental” peers, but there’s another type I’d like to see added to the equation though, let’s call them “technical” peers.
How does the outcome change if you abstract away from Tesla being an EV manufacturer, and purely look at it as an extremely fast rising, possibly overvalued stock. There should be plenty of other candidates for that peer category (nvidia comes to mind, for example).
To be fair, prior to this there was a massive pump. I’d be interested to see this exact chart over a 6 month horizon rather (or even YTD)
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