Lithuania’s economy is almost the same size as Latvia and Estonia combined

„Despite major uncertainties, Lithuania is growing the fastest among the Baltic countries and the EU. We forecast growth of 2.5% this year“, Mauricas said at the Luminor Economic Review.

„It could be higher – up to 3% – but depending on external conditions, it could be lower. This is a reduction from the previous forecast because we see a lot of uncertainty in the international environment,“ he said.

In 2026, the Lithuanian economy is forecast to maintain a similar % growth rate of 2.5%.

Earlier, Luminor forecasted that the country’s GDP would grow by 3% and inflation would reach 2.2% in 2025. However, according to the bank’s economist, higher inflation is expected due to rapidly rising wages, declining interest rates, EU funds and tax hikes.

„The return of inflation may cloud Lithuania’s economic sky, as it will reduce the growth of the population’s purchasing power and undermine Lithuania’s international competitiveness. For example, restaurant prices in Vilnius are already around 80 per cent of Stockholm’s price level, compared to just 38 per cent a decade ago,“ the economist noted.

Mauricas says the average wage in Lithuania will reach 9% this year, while the unemployment rate will get 7%.

„We can see that wage growth is significantly faster than in Latvia and Estonia. This makes us look good in the European context,“ said Mauricas.

Lithuania’s economy is almost the same size as that of Latvia and Estonia combined

The economist also pointed out that the economies of the other Baltic countries are returning to growth, with Latvia’s GDP expected to grow by 1% this year and Estonia’s by 1.4%.

Mauricas says Lithuania’s much faster growth has resulted in a GDP of EUR 77.8 billion, compared to EUR 79.7 billion for Latvia and Estonia combined. According to him, Lithuania’s economy is currently only 2% smaller than that of Latvia and Estonia combined, while in 2019, the difference was around 30%.

„The Lithuanian economy, which has been growing over the last five years, is now almost the same size as Latvia and Estonia combined,“ the economist explained.

„Five years ago, our economy was EUR 49.2 billion,“ Mauricas said.

Moreover, he said, Vilnius region has overtaken Tallinn to become the wealthiest region in the Baltics by 2023, and the average wage in Kaunas is already higher than in Riga.

According to Luminor, Lithuania stands out in the EU context for its broad-based growth.

In contrast to many other EU countries, all major economic sectors showed growth last year: agriculture, industry, construction, trade, transport, and high-value-added services.