Netanyahu’s war aim is now to remake the Middle East

10 comments

1. On Israel’s northern front, in Lebanon, Hezbollah has been considerably weakened as a fighting force by the IDF’s offensive against it, which began in earnest last September with the “exploding pagers” attack. The current ceasefire with Hezbollah may not hold. On Saturday, three rockets were fired from Lebanon towards Metula in northern Israel and the IDF and the IDF responded immediately with its own attacks. If the truce breaks, the IDF indicates it is ready for that too.

   Unimpeded Israeli air strikes into Syria already target supply lines to Hezbollah, and there is much to gain as the hiatus of the post-Assad Syria works itself out. In Yemen, the Houthis are a strategic irrelevance to Israel but their occasional missile attacks and strikes against world shipping in the Red Sea serve to point up the main objective of Netanyahu’s wider war aims: to sever Iran’s links with all of Israel’s local enemies and, if possible, bring about regime change in Tehran

2. He might as well. Gaza is basically destroyed, the West Bank subservient, Lebanon willing to work towards peace, literally all of Hezbollah has PTSD from pager beeps, Syria has flipped to a slightly less anti-Israel and more pro West government (very slightly), and Iran’s entire resistance during the fall of its own alliance is to squirt a few missiles at Israel then shake its fist (and doing nothing else). Even Egypts foreign prime minister stated that a [Palestinian faction will not have a role in Gaza](https://x.com/AlArabiya_Brk/status/1903802753173839892) while Hamas is being kicked out. Oh, and an unapologetically pro Israel president is in charge of the US.

   I’m having a hard time thinking of any nation state that had its fortunes flip so rapidly in a single year. Maybe like, France in late 1944?

3. What about the two state solution?

4. The “New Middle East” = ethnic cleansing and genocide. The language used in this article is sickening

5. I think his aim is to stay in power as long as he can and avoid the corruption charges.

6. A remake? Isn’t one middle east enough?

7. Germany still sending aid?

8. I am going to say something slightly controversial. No power in the Middle East is strong enough to “remake” it. Not Israel not Iran not Saudi Arabia. If any of these actors try something like that, it will backfire. Iran made significant gains in 2000s. They ended up overextending and losing pretty much everything.

   If Israel aligns her interests with the interests of other actors who also agree on keeping the Iranian influence minimum, only then Israel can continue making progress.

9. I think October 7 will come to be seen as one of the worst decisions the Palestinians have ever made. Not only, did it let Israel totally destroy Gaza without much international resistance, it gave Israel the blank cheque to begin attacking Iranian proxies across the Middle East. In one year, Israel has destroyed 20+ years of Iranian strategic planning.

   Palestine is now left without any allies willing to shed blood for them. Palestine is not only isolated, but completely drained of any sense of power. Instead of flipping the board, Hamas were anhilated and Gaza has been subjegated.

   Just as December 7, 1941 became the beginning of nearly 80 years of American hegemony over the Pacific, I wonder whether October 7 2023 will become the beginning of Israeli hegemony over the Levant?

10. The mission creep on his part is about to become a mission leap. He should be careful that he doesn’t overplay his hand. Netanyahu is completely unchained at the moment, the US will likely be even more compliant with his strategy, and his enemies abroad and opposition at home are too broken or divided to stop him.

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