Recent U.S. sanctions targeting Iranian crude exports have introduced new supply risks, particularly as restrictions hit a privately owned refiner and several shipping vessels. This has already begun to impact Iranian oil flows to China and elevated freight costs, although traders anticipate some workaround volumes may persist. The sanctions come just as Iran was ramping up exports, adding pressure to an already constrained global market.
Ceasefire Talks Add Uncertainty to Russian Oil Outlook
At the same time, negotiations between U.S., Ukrainian, and Russian officials are casting a shadow on the outlook for Russian supply. Hopes for a Black Sea ceasefire and a broader resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could pave the way for an increase in Russian crude exports, softening some of the bullish pressure. However, investors remain cautious, with many awaiting clearer signals from diplomatic channels before adjusting positions materially.
OPEC+ Balances Output Cuts with Modest Production Hike
On the production front, OPEC+ reaffirmed that it will proceed with a monthly production increase of 138,000 bpd from April. This modest rise is overshadowed by deeper compensatory cuts from several member nations meant to offset earlier overproduction. With the group still holding back 5.85 million bpd from the market—roughly 5.7% of global supply—expectations are that the group’s net contribution will remain supportive of prices in the near term.
Technical Levels to Watch as Crude Builds Support