The world is changing and Türkiye is at the center of these shifts. As is known, the country is relatively aligned with the West but also partially connected to the East. This position makes it a key player in shaping Europe’s future, NATO’s security and the wider global balance of power.
I first highlighted this development in one of my previous articles published again in Daily Sabah. At that time, Europe was finally about to realize the full extent of its growing reliance on Türkiye.
There was a time when empires rose and fell with shifting power struggles. Türkiye, located at the crossroads of continents, has always witnessed history’s great transformations. Today, it is again not just watching from the sidelines but actively shaping events. As global alliances shift, Türkiye moves carefully, fully aware that the world is watching.
Europe’s security policies are undergoing a major change. The war in Ukraine has revealed weaknesses in Western institutions. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s second presidency in the U.S. has accelerated changes in transatlantic security policies. With Washington’s new stance, European leaders are looking for new sources of stability. Türkiye, with its military strength, strategic location and diplomatic reach, has become an important focus.
Türkiye has NATO’s second-largest army. It is not just a defensive force but an active participant in various conflicts. From Syria to Libya, from the Caucasus to the Mediterranean, Türkiye has gained combating military experience that few European countries can match. Its advancements in drone warfare have already changed modern military strategies. These drones have proven effective even against more advanced military forces.
But Türkiye’s influence is not only military. The country controls the Turkish Straits – the Bosporus and Dardanelles – two key waterways connecting the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. This gives Türkiye unique leverage in global security. As tensions between Russia and NATO increase, Türkiye’s role in regulating naval movement is critical. Its decisions – whether in line with NATO or following an independent course – will shape European security.
Beyond security, Türkiye’s economy is shaping its global role. Positioned between Asia and Europe while close to Africa and the Middle East, it is becoming a key trade and manufacturing hub. This is evident in its expanding defense industry, which now exports drones, armored vehicles and naval ships. As European nations seek to reduce reliance on traditional defense suppliers, Türkiye is emerging as a strong alternative.
Balance between allies, rivals
Türkiye’s foreign policy requires careful balancing. It has strong ties with the EU, but these relationships have been complicated. As the U.S. becomes less engaged in European security, European leaders recognize Türkiye’s essential role in maintaining regional stability. It is no longer just Türkiye that needs Europe; Europe increasingly needs Türkiye.
This view was visibly reflected during the EU leaders’ summit on March 20-21, 2025. While the first day passed with limited references, the second day marked a significant shift. In a video conference with Türkiye, the U.K., Norway and Iceland, top EU figures – including European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen – explicitly acknowledged the strategic role of key partners in Europe’s defense posture. Türkiye’s inclusion in this select group underscored its importance, particularly in the context of the EU’s Readiness 2030 initiative aimed at building deterrence and expanding industrial defense capabilities.
This recognition was more than symbolic. As Europe braces for an uncertain future and the war in Ukraine continues, Türkiye’s geographic position, growing defense sector, and diplomatic outreach make it a necessary partner rather than a peripheral player. The EU’s gesture during the summit served as another reminder that European security increasingly depends on deeper cooperation with Ankara – even if full political alignment remains elusive.
However, Türkiye’s close economic ties with Russia present challenges within NATO. As Türkiye continues trade relations with Moscow, it also supplies military aid to Ukraine. This dual approach allows Türkiye to act as a mediator, but it also raises concerns. If Türkiye moves too close to Russia, it could face opposition from its Western allies. Energy is another factor. Türkiye still depends on Russian natural gas but is working to develop new sources to reduce this reliance.
The legal dimensions of Türkiye’s international dealings are also important. NATO does not prohibit member states from having independent defense agreements, but Türkiye’s cooperation with Russia – especially in military technology – has already caused tensions, as seen in the S-400 air-defense system dispute. Türkiye’s control of the Turkish Straits is governed by the Montreux Convention. If Türkiye were to change its stance, it could spark international conflicts, making its foreign policy even more complex.
At the same time, Türkiye is strengthening ties with regional allies such as Azerbaijan, the Gulf states and the other Turkic nations in Turkestan. Its mediation in conflicts like the Armenia-Azerbaijan dispute highlights its growing diplomatic influence. Türkiye is also a key player in energy projects like the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP), further solidifying its role in global energy security.
As a merchant in Istanbul’s historical Grand Bazaar – often regarded as one of the first shopping malls of the world – once said: “The wise trader never keeps all his gold in one chest.” Türkiye seems to follow this philosophy in its foreign policy. It does not fully commit to any single alliance, yet it remains indispensable to all. Few nations can manage this delicate balancing act without missteps.
Looking forward, especially due to its geographical location, Türkiye’s future is closely tied to Europe’s security challenges. Whether as a military ally, a diplomatic mediator, or an independent power, Türkiye – rooted in its historical foundation and backed by its vast experience – is not simply reacting to global changes; it is actively shaping them. The question is not whether Türkiye will remain central to these shifts but how it will choose to use its influence. In a world where alliances are constantly evolving, Türkiye is proving that it is not just adapting to history; it is helping to write it.
