Adam Zivo: Trump will fail to turn Russia against China

10 comments

1. Submission statement: The Trump administration’s diplomatic and foreign policy decisions have fuelled speculation that the White House is trying to foster a Russo-American alliance against Beijing. This has been referred to as pulling a “Reverse Kissinger,” in reference to Kissinger and Nixon’s unexpected anti-Soviet alliance with Maoist China in 1972. This article explains why the historical parallels to Kissinger are unfounded (Mao and the Soviets hated each other, unlike Xi and Putin today), and why, given the depth of contemporary Sino-Russian cooperation, attempts to entice Russia away from China will almost certainly fail.

   *[NOTE: I am also the author of this article. For context, the National Post is one of Canada’s largest newspapers, and I am one of their political columnists and resident Ukraine experts. My name is in the post title because Canadian newspapers generally require that opinion pieces include author names in their headlines, and I’m obligated to use the exact headline as the submission title.]*

2. Xi and Putin might be all buddy buddy right now but behind closed doors Beijing absolutely does not want a Russia/American alliance.

3. Putin has managed to turn the US against Europe.

4. Seems like a strawman when Russia has nothing to offer anyway that would significantly help compete with China.

5. This sounds to me more like a rationalization of the Trump Administrations concessions to Russia than it sounds like a real policy tbh. In any case the key difference is that Kissinger’s approach to China was based on two facts: One, American failure in the Vietnam War meant US threat against China was receding, and two, most crucially, China and the USSR had already gone into conflict with each other without American involvement a few years prior. Kissinger didn’t have to fabricate a conflict, he took advantage of one that already existed. Russia and China has no reason to create a conflict between each other just because America wants one to exist.

6. [removed]

7. Trump fails again…hardly any real revelation and no lessons learned. Afterall, they share the same ideology and the same foe, the US.

8. Meanwhile, China seeks to increase cooperation with Europe..
   In the end, I can only envision USA falling terribly hard on its ass as that is ultimately what Russia wants, consequently trying to recover broken partnerships and a faltering economy for decades to come.

9. Is a Russia America alliance really what they are going for?

   I don’t think they expect to be able to pull Russia away from China and into their arms. Instead, I think they are trying to make concessions to Russia so that they can end the war in Ukraine (which I think is stupid btw but I digress), and therefore by ending the war in Ukraine they neutralise the threat in Europe meaning they can focus their forces on China.

   So it’s less about turning Russia against China but more cosying up to Russia as a way to reduce their presence in Europe so that they can focus on China.

10. Agreed. And it is actually a simple equation.

    Both China and Russia share the same outlook on their populace. Its NOT about freedom but about control and manipulation.

    The US is sliding into that direction.

    Russia won’t abandon a frenemy with similar ideals for the US. The US still has alot of freedom baked in.

    The US and Russia won’t be able to be “friendly” as long as Russia thinks killing and subjugating their neighbors is ok.

    But we will see how far the “right” in hte US will take us.

Comments are closed.